4UNIT @4Unit20

Small Cap Investing is Dead with a 77% spike in Tax Collection I have run 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations of portfolios of 20 Small Cap Stocks with the New Inflation Corrected CGT model versus the existing 50% CGT discount model. The results are devastating. The bottom line is that small caps are highly asymmetric bets where your small number of winners are meant to compensate you for your many losers. Mining companies are a good example of this situation and are a fundamental pillar of our national wealth. However if you tax those few winners at 47% with the trivial relative inflation correction you effectively wipe out the ability to offset your losses. This is because the tax drag on your few multi baggers is so high that it changes the entire logic of the investment process. It's become a loser's game. 1. ​The Moonshot Tax Penalty: Because Australian small caps rely heavily on a right-skewed distribution (a few massive winners offsetting many losers), the Indexation framework introduces a devastating tax penalty. For a stock that goes from $50,000 to $400,000, a 3% inflation adjustment on the original $50,000 cost basis is completely negligible. Under Indexation, you forfeit the 50% discount and pay a flat 47% on nearly the entire gain. 2. ​The Turnover Trap: With a 15% annual turnover, small-cap portfolios realize taxes continuously. Under the current system, every partial sale triggers a flat 23.5% effective tax rate, leaving more money inside the portfolio to compound. Under indexation, those early wins are hit at a full 47% clip, severely dampening the portfolio's forward compounding engine. 3. The Asymmetric Loss Failure: in small-cap investing, a stock can only ever lose 100% of its value, but explosive winners have unlimited compounding upside. The government’s asymmetric tax system completely devastates this dynamic: by replacing the flat 50% CGT discount with inflation-indexing for winners only, it leaves your nominal losses capped and completely unable to counteract the massive tax hike on your multi-baggers. Because a 3% inflation buffer barely dents a 400% moonshot gain, you end up paying a brutal, un-discounted 47% tax rate on the very winners that drive a small-cap portfolio's success, causing a 77% spike in total government tax take overall. Even in investing we see the socialist government wants us all to be the same. Communists. (Technical notes: Model executed using Gemini Pro with 1,000 portfolios of 20 stocks each with the volatility and median return typical of this class of small cap stocks over the last 10 years, using a geometric mean process to step forward each portfolio each year).

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Normally a diesel, mogas or jet cargo takes only 14 days to sail from Singapore to Botany Bay, 15 days if from Ulsan, South Korea. Now if Singapore refineries are not running enough crude and South Korea is imposing mandatory product export caps, Australia needs to find supply elsewhere as the country is 90% reliant on imports with only 2 refineries online domestically. USGC is generally long products. So the supply from USGC is kind of a no-brainer in the current climate. But the time taken for the voyage from Houston to Botany Bay is 32 days. So existing stock inventories need to hold till resupply comes. ARA on the other hand is typically long mogas. So it would be interesting to watch the gasoline arb between Houston vs Rotterdam into Botany Bay going forward if Asia just cannot supply Australia. However it takes 42 days for Rotterdam cargoes to travel to Botany Bay via the Cape. Essentially more risk on longer haul voyages and higher freight costs for the new supply points to keep Australia wet. See attached freight chart from @SpartaCommo for the Houston --> Botany Bay route. #oott

Exxon, BP, Vitol ship most US fuels to Australia for a single month in three decades, traders say ExxonMobil, BP and Vitol are shipping a record volume of oil products to Australia ‌from the United States in March, shipping data from trading sources shows, filling a gap left by the loss of regular supplies from Asia as the Iran conflict disrupts supplies. Australia usually relies on Asia for the vast majority of its oil product imports, but China and Thailand have banned fuel exports to preserve domestic supplies ​and refiners across the region are cutting output as Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz sharply cuts crude exports from the ​Middle East. At least 200,000 metric tons of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel have been loaded, or will be ⁠loaded, by the end of March from the U.S. Gulf Coast and West Coast for shipment to Australia, shipping data from three trade ​sources shows. (Reuters)

Long discussion - fuel reserves Australia's fuel reserves have fallen to around 26-29 days depending on fuel type, and that's after the government this week reduced the mandatory stockholding requirement, freeing up several days of supply that had previously been locked in reserve. Before the current crisis they sat at around 30-36 days, roughly a third of the IEA's 90-day requirement, which Australia has failed to meet since 2012. The gap isn't an accident. Before July 2023 there was no legal obligation to hold minimum reserves. As refineries closed and supply chains shifted to imported fuel, the system moved toward just-in-time logistics and storage depots were progressively rationalised. The government legislated a Minimum Stockholding Obligation in 2021, which took effect in July 2023. But the MSO only requires 24-27 days, it was never designed to close the IEA gap, just to stop the bleeding. The IEA obligation sits with the federal government, not industry, and there's no domestic law that actually enforces it. So when China restricts jet fuel exports and Iranian conflict disrupts regional supply simultaneously, Australia is running a 26-29 day domestic buffer with a just-in-time airport supply chain and 13 years of accepted non-compliance behind it. The current crisis didn't create this vulnerability. It just made it visible. There's a harder question underneath all this. Every time the government reduces the MSO to free up supply, it isn't creating fuel, it's reclassifying mandatory reserve as available for sale. If new shipments don't arrive, the government faces a binary choice: keep cutting the MSO floor to maintain supply at the bowser, or let shortages become visible. Each reduction shrinks the buffer further. The fact that Australia had to start cutting into its mandatory minimum almost immediately tells you something the official figures don't: the usable buffer above the MSO floor was already essentially gone before this crisis started. #auspol #ausbiz #ausecon

Venice had a network of spies and diplomats in every court of Europe. Upon their return, they were required to deliver reports to the Venetian Senate. These reports were so invaluable for understanding the state of the world that they were often smuggled out and sold to rich clients for a high price. Many survive to this day, and they have been compiled into historical volumes that make for extremely interesting reading, and are some of the most important sources for the history of the 1500s and 1600s. But most have never been translated into English. AI is finally getting good enough to translate old documents like this (not as good as an expert, but good enough when nothing else is available), so I wrote a short program to translate the Venetian reports. The results are surprisingly good. With some light editing and the addition of footnotes, they make for really compelling reading. So I'm making a Substack and putting the earliest surviving report on the Ottoman Empire (from 1534) up as the first post. I'll keep any AI-translated stuff completely free, as it would feel wrong to paywall that, but if you'd like to support me by subscribing, I'll be posting some of my own historical/political/cultural thoughts behind the paywall eventually. Anyway check it out, I think you'll really enjoy reading these reports. The first one covers (among other things) the scheming of Grand Vizier Ibrahim, and the Venetian diplomat's correspondence with the famous corsair Barbarossa: romanhelmetguy.substack.com/p/venetian-rep…

A young woman just absolutely mogged the PM @AlboMP right to his retarded face 😆

I am going to keep screaming this until someone hears: A CHILD DIED IN MODERNA'S OWN CLINICAL TRIAL OF ITS MRNA COVID JAB, AND THE COMPANY HID THE DEATH FROM THE PUBLIC

Alex Berenson @AlexBerenson

9 months ago

This is NOT one of the 10 deaths @US_FDA reported. Moderna and Pfizer killed kids with mRNA Covid shots that didn't even work, and the Biden FDA and CDC ENCOURAGED them. It is time for justice.

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We are the preferred chainsaw brand for bears.

BowTiedBroke @BowTiedBroke

9 months ago

Well wasn’t this just a great way to wake up this morning. Went looking for my brand new chainsaw that I left on front porch last night. Never gonna find that thing again. This means war!

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One of my posts about Iryna Zatutska has been flagged as illegal by… the Australian eSafety Commissioner 🤨 I knew the Australian government was crazy since covid and since they locked up nationalist activists, but why are they demanding X censors a European activist talking about an American murder?

THE DESENSITIZED GENERATION — Immune To Novelty By AI Video Fatigue With just a few hours of testing OpenAI’s Sora2 Social Network for my clients and just finished a 218 page report, the thing I thought about for decades is upon us: Full Desensitization Of Visual Novelty I knew so many years ago, and one reason I have posted on the account so many novel images and videos that one day we will rapidly become immune to “oh damn, it’s over” images and video. With Sora2 this desensitization will rapidly accelerate as “you and your friends” build endless videos where you and they are inserted. Like all things that get abused, the first phase is “wow look at this”, the next phase is “can it do that” and the last phase is “nothing is real and I don’t care”. The shock value of the entire technology become removed but in the final phases it will be pushed to extremes of insults and potentially purposeful directed reputation damage. This will take place so rapidly as Sora2 and every other social network rushes to take whatever nicely oxygen that is left in the room for more and more “it’s over, we are so cooked” fantastical videos. They will continue to get so much better that even the “debunker” experts will give up their “look at the fingers-type troupe”, they honestly will not know and soon burn out. My easy point is get ready to be bored by the novelty of humans that in the past took potentially hours of thier lives to create novelty in reality. The hard point is what now? Once a society takes something that has increasingly more and more amazing possibilities like AI and rapidly becomes immune to the possibilities the entire industry become devalued because the front facing aspect to AI will be Sora2-like social media. Humanity’s entire past of astonishing achievements, the high points and the low points and the incredible art we can make will equally become devalued because this fatigue will make us not care and not trust what was real. Everything will become a forever now where there was no real past because it would take impossible effort to verify it if at all. Why? Because not only are we the Desensitized Generation we are also the Amnesia Generation where Petabytes of all forms of media, books, papers, microfilm/microfiche, film, VHS, audio tapes, records, etc is being thrown away or decayed. Not to mention the daily removal of text, images, video and audio from the internet. We simply will not have the receipts, we won’t have the memory and the fatigue is too large to care. It took 5 dark nights for the Library to burn, the sum total of human knowledge. In our age the burn is slow and rapidly increasing till the pot boils over. What are the answers? I have thought about this for decades. I will continue to write about it a lot. But one thing you can do is understand we are rapidly losing our past because almost no one cares. I should not be the only one dumpster diving to save what I can. Also protect your mind and preserve your “novelty” sensitivity because once it is burned out with fatigue, it will never return. And I ask you to have grace and compassion to those that don’t know what we know. You are the 1% of the 1% and must serve a place to help those that can understand what this means and have grace to those who can’t. I am serious, be gentle with them as they find the bottom of the hole and hopefully find a way back. This video below was novel and she risked her life. You are the last generation to understand this. The post reposted of a CEO head in a toilet, is AI rendered it is not novelty.

Brian Roemmele @BrianRoemmele

11 months ago

What is this?

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Straya!

BREAKING: USA WARNS AUSTRALIA The U.S. has warned Australia to halt its crackdown on free speech following the re-election of left wing Labor for a second term U.S. State Dept has demanded Albanese cease “deeply concerning” censoring free speech on social media platforms

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Tucker Carlson goes nuclear on Albanese who he says is bought and paid for by the Chinese. ‘My guess is you could probably buy Albanese for less than it costs to buy a Tesla. This is a person with no job prospects. No obvious skills . Who has the respect of nobody including his wife.’ The reason he knows this is because the country is being invaded through unsustainable mass migration. Selling out the future of our children. 🔥🙌🔥🙌🔥

Hi @DOGE I'm a member of parliament in Australia's largest state. I've just attended a briefing from the 'United States Study Centre' (@USSC ) which is a think tank based at the University of Sydney. The briefing was endlessly anti-Trump. It felt like I was stuck in a room and forced to watch MSNBC. The presenter concluded by apologising to Australians on behalf of Americans because of the Trump Administration. A quick AI search indicates the @USSC receives funding from US taxpayers (and Lockheed Martin of course). If true I hereby request it be DOGEd.

WOW: Tina Peters backing up the elections data before they wiped the systems gave the public a rare opportunity to analyze before and after the tampering — and it shows clear and deliberate manipulation of the voting systems. -Audit trail deleted -System logs deleted -Voting files replaced with new files Now we know why the Democrat Judge in her case refused nearly all of her witnesses and excluded virtually all of her defenses, then sentenced her to 9 years in prison — because if this became a nationwide story the entire house of cards with Dominion could fall. @realtinapeters

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I would like to make a point about the Ukraine/Russia War. I believe it is the most important point. Here it is: Right now, as you are reading this, a Ukrainian or Russian teen was in all likelihood killed in action. Why? For what? Ukraine cannot win this war. What Zelenskyy wants is for the US and/or NATO to literally start fighting the Russians, and that's not going to happen because nobody wants nuclear Armageddon and the end of humanity (except possibly Zelenskyy). So what is the ONLY option? Answer: mark the boundaries where they are right now and stop fighting. Trump knows this. Vance knows this. Anyone with a brain who understands war knows this. THERE IS NO OTHER OPTION. And anybody who disagrees with what I just said is either a bloodthirsty warmonger, a lobotomite midwit, or both. Face reality people.

GOD BLESS AMERICA : IT’S OVER FOR eSAFETY KAREN and HER MERRY BAND OF CENSORS It was only a few months ago, with the Mis & Disinformation Bill before the Australian Senate, that eSafety Karen’s dreams of being a global censor of the internet, and with the power to hit X with tens of millions in fines looked like becoming a reality. But with the US just passing the ‘No Censors on our Shores Act’ - those dreams are over. With this new law, any Australian government bureaucrat that engages "in any act" to censor the free speech (that would be unlawful under the US 1st Amendment) such as demanding posts made by US citizens be taken down, or attempting to fine X corp for not taking down any post that eSafety ordered them to - will find themselves banned from travelling to the USA. This could apply to every bureaucrat at the eSafety Commission and could even apply to every Labor and Liberal UniParty MP or Senator that voted for the Hate Speech legislation. I would suggest that this will also make it impossible for eSafety Karen to enforce the Age Verification requirements upon a US based social media companies, without everyone at eSafety Commission being banned from travelling to the USA. GOD BLESS AMERICA congress.gov/bill/118th-con…

🚨 “A landmark lawsuit against Merck is underway … Newly declassified documents in the trial have revealed troubling details about Merck’s failure to conduct key safety tests. Internal emails reveal that Merck knew its Gardasil vaccine was contaminated with HPV DNA fragments from the vaccine‘s manufacturing process and lobbied regulators to bypass testing requirements. These DNA fragments, originating from the plasmid DNA used in vaccine production to code for the HPV virus’s L1 protein, are supposed to be removed during manufacturing. Instead, high levels of HPV DNA fragments remain in the final product and tightly bind to the aluminum adjuvant. Unlike free DNA molecules in solution, the aluminum-bound HPV DNA is stabilized and resists breakdown by enzymes. For some individuals, particularly those with genetic predispositions, this can lead to autoimmune conditions such as postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome (POTS) or, in rare cases, sudden death. Notably, Gardasil’s package inserts make no mention of the presence of HPV DNA or its potential to trigger immune responses. Internal emails reveal negligence and cover-up.”

We're at this stage of the movie.

Mike Benz @MikeBenzCyber

2 years ago

I've been telling you guys forever that you've been living your whole in a carefully constructed USAID Truman Show, where none of the institutions you meet -- from the media, to public health, to universities, to NGOs, to terrorists -- are the institutions you think you are.

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One recipient, CONSORTIUM FOR ELECTIONS & POLITICAL PROCESS STRENGTHENING, is the recipient of 48 active grants worth $528 million, all awarded from USAID and going to various nations. ಠ_ಠ Going to do a deep dive. 🧵👇