RationalExuberance @AlexDemache

New York, NY Joined December 2013

Tweets

11K
Followers

463
Following

2K
Likes

681

Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

4 weeks ago

Always good to remember that markets is people.... and their positions

4 6 82 8K 5

View Details

Abhishek @STIR_Trader_

18 hours ago

@Gamma_Blast_ I think this is a good summary.

0 1 1 73 0

View Details

Very cool prices in the June CPI were across the board. Core goods declined for the second straight month, down -0.09% Housing was up just 0.12% Core services ex-housing was -0.2%, the lowest since the lockdowns.

34 115 550 174K 66

View Details

Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

3 days ago

Waller is asked about the problem of conditioning a choice over which road to take when you come to a fork on the basis of one inflation print, since inflation prints often have a lot of noise. Waller: It's true there can be noise in every print, but the last several months have been worse than expected. "We're building off of, basically, almost six months of higher, higher, higher, higher. Another higher one? I'm gonna treat that as signal." "This next one, whichever direction it goes, it'll be a useful signal."

7 30 186 59K 28

View Details

Sid Prabhu @sidprabhu

6 days ago

This is a heavy weight group of people, but clearly hand picked to deliver Warsh's techno-monetarist agenda - Communications - less forward guidance of rate path, but instead communication of conditional reaction function, an attempt at less distortion of market signals Balance Sheet - smaller, less activist as macroeconomic tool, but not a return to scarce reserves Data - more real time nowcasting, less macro model dependence Productivity - Creating a credible framework for an AI positive supply shock narrative and its timing mismatch Inflation - movement from false precision of New Keynesianism - less focus on Philips Curve/output gap, more focus on expectations, credit/financial markets linkages and regime credibility, shift to 2 from 2.0

Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

6 days ago

Kevin Warsh’s task force leaders are here federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pre…

26 74 274 351K 73

7 15 101 28K 47

View Details

Abhishek @STIR_Trader_

a week ago

2 1 13 1K 1

View Details

Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

a week ago

30y reals eyeballing 18 year highs at 2.87%. QE era negative real long-end rates now a slowly fading memory

6 13 102 58K 13

View Details

Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

2 weeks ago

The puzzle for the Fed: If the labor market is not a source of inflation, then what explains recent stickiness? wsj.com/livecoverage/j…

64 46 306 113K 50

View Details

The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter

3 weeks ago

Key Events This Week: 1. US Markets React to Strait of Hormuz Strikes - Today 2. May JOLTs Job Openings data - Tuesday 3. June CB Consumer Confidence data - Tuesday 4. June ISM Manufacturing PMI data - Wednesday 5. June Jobs Report - Thursday 6. US Markets Closed, Happy 4th of July! - Friday We have a short but busy week ahead.

116 370 3K 455K 434

View Details

Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

3 weeks ago

July hike odds seem too high

10 4 121 13K 2

View Details

Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

3 weeks ago

Some questioning the value of inflation swaps (driven mainly by crude prices) as a guide to coming Fed policy. But, it is hard to ignore that the current repricing from cuts to hikes was concurrent with the surge in Oil prices. So a retreat has to have some impact on the Fed's policy decisions but admittedly not exclusively as the labor market has strengthened in that timeframe as well.

9 14 83 10K 18

View Details

Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

3 weeks ago

Since January 2020, the San Francisco Fed has been tracking monetary-event surprises on FOMC day. Their event-study data shows that last week's FOMC meeting produced the largest hawkish surprise among the 57 meetings/events tracked. frbsf.org/research-and-i…

11 55 262 74K 69

View Details

Atlanta Fed @AtlantaFed

3 weeks ago

While there is a broad-based slowing among some of the near-term measures of underlying PCE inflation, all the year-over-year measures on the dashboard are still elevated relative to the FOMC's price stability mandate. atlfed.org/4eHN4tR

0 10 30 4K 9

View Details

Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

3 weeks ago

The Dallas Fed's "trimmed mean" PCE was up 2.8% annualized in May, and those prices rose 2.4% over the previous 12 months. As noted before, this measure trims more from the top than the bottom wsj.com/economy/centra… An alternate measure from the Cleveland Fed that de-biases the "trimmed mean" was closer to 2.7% on a 12-month basis through April. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…

12 50 237 62K 42

View Details

Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

3 weeks ago

Core PCE was 0.32% in May, on the low side of expectations but still the fourth highest monthly print in the last 12 months (3.9% annualized) The 12-month change, at 3.4%, is the highest reading since Oct. 2023. The 6-month annualized rate is above 4%.

Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

3 weeks ago

Forecasters who can transpose the PPI and CPI into the May PCE are expecting a firm core print (and wide wedge with the CPI) on Thursday morning, yielding a 3.4% increase from a year earlier. For context, four FOMC participants expect core PCE to end the year at 3.2% or lower.

24 93 431 183K 73

21 122 439 185K 46

View Details

Nick Timiraos @NickTimiraos

3 weeks ago

New Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh is set to make his first appearance before the House Financial Services Committee when he delivers the semi-annual monetary policy testimony on July 14 financialservices.house.gov/calendar/event…

8 36 190 138K 29

View Details

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi

4 weeks ago

Initial jobless claims have ticked up, but it's actually at a multi-year low for this time of year... ... summer employment swoon seems to be a thing... even for supposedly seasonal-adjusted data @AugurInfinity

0 2 26 4K 3

View Details

Citrini @citrini

a month ago

It’s been a minute since we wrote a macro memo, we were overdue for one. Here’s the latest in what we’re thinking: citriniresearch.com/p/macro-memo-s…

28 65 806 275K 622

View Details

Frederik Ducrozet @fwred

a month ago

🇪🇺 ECB staff projections for inflation show headline HICP back below target by Q4 2027, but core HICP above 2% throughout the forecast horizon.

2 3 16 8K 6

View Details

Ed Bradford @Fullcarry

a month ago

With a UST 10y auction on deck, timely to look at 10s on the curve. The 5s10s30s 'fly which generally tracks the term premium has diverged recently with 10s richening up. Not a fan of the belly generally but this just adds to my disdain