Bassem.✪ @BassemOptions

$SPY We will get a bounce, and I’ll position for it, but that doesn’t necessarily mean all time highs again. We will either reject the 10-20 DMAs and create a head & shoulders that sends price lower after, or we will make a higher low and make new all time highs. It’s 50/50 now imo. While fundamentals are bearish we have the biggest IPO in history coming within days, plus seasonality that favours slow melt ups in the summer post June and until late August. Your best indicator will be how price behaves around the MAs mentioned above. One level at a time. Enjoy your weekends✌️

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

End of quarter rebalancing tomorrow. Expect lots of weird flow and darkpools $SPY $QQQ

Paraguay shocks the world and eliminates Germany. Wow! One less strong team in Portugal’s side of the draw so I’m happy for this. I hope Austria and Sweden shock Spain and France in the next couple of days.

$SPY Spot on from Mike. 735 is also where I plan to close my lotto shorts.

Michael Bento @MichaelPBento

a week ago

So taking a look at $SPY after the bell it looks like we are heading for a pin around max pain, which is at 735 for quarterly OpEx. The price has closed above the downtrend resistance line for the first time since is started on 6/15. It also closed just a whisker above the 10DMA.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

15 10 162 37K 38

$SPY Neutral close in my opinion. You can make an argument for either sides and it’s about the same odds. I personally cut down the second round of shorts I took at 739 to just a small lotto size. If it prints it prints, if it doesn’t I couldn’t care less. Great day for me overall and let’s see what tomorrow brings. Enjoy your evenings ✌️

$SPY 741.60 is the 20 dma. Either it rejects it and drops back to stay in range or finally breakout. Considering price is already up more than 1.5% on the day and this area proved to be a very strong resistance I lean towards the latter. Keep in mind also that the 20 dma is the last daily moving average price is still trading under.

$SPY Price pinned at resistance, let’s see how the day ends. Brazil vs Japan is fire so it’s keeping me entertained during the boring PA.

$SPY Got my second entry at 739. Let’s see if I nail another drop or get stopped out this time. Look at this, definitely worth another shot even if it fails this time.

$SPY I shorted from 739 to 733 in the morning because I knew they were going to front run my 740 level like the last two times. I’m now basically waiting for a double top at 739-740 to take another short but I’m not sure if I’ll get it.

Bassem @Basssem666

a week ago

$SPY Caught it this time. I cash out here and may renter later if we get another pump.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

37 6 108 41K 4

$SPY Caught it this time. I cash out here and may renter later if we get another pump.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

Bassem @Basssem666

a week ago

$SPY I thought i will get a long entry on Monday but it now looks like it’s going to be short.⬇️

15 8 157 40K 10

$SPY I thought i will get a long entry on Monday but it now looks like it’s going to be short.⬇️

$SPY

Bassem @Basssem666

3 weeks ago

$SPY it keeps rejecting the 1H 20 ema. This can actually drop below 750. I’ll wait for that to buy the dip. 745-744 gap fill then bounce ? Would be ideal. Maybe we’ll get it tomorrow with the fomc if we just remain pinned between 751-753 today.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

8 6 106 57K 10

Let’s go! 1-0 Portugal !🇵🇹

$SPY Boring price action on spy as expected. Typical fomc day. I currently don’t have positions since I don’t like to front run it.

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

$SPY Expecting the market to be boring until the fomc so I’ll sleep in til the Portugal game in the afternoon.😴

$SPY Hope you all had a great weekend. Here are the paths price can take from here. The lines drawn don’t mean price should go in a straight line up or down, it’s just to help visualise the moves. It’s definitely a tough market to navigate right now (unless you close your eyes and buy calls anyway). 1) That’s the most probable and realistic path. Price needs to reject 713-718 and start correcting towards 690 or slightly lower, then go back up to make a new all time high at 730-732 or higher. Technically, even if price extends the correction to 660 it’s still a buyable dip. 2) Another very likely path. Price rejects 713-718, finds support in the 680s or a bit lower and bounces off hard, but only to make a lower high at 698-703 before rolling over. That’ll be very bearish and risks visiting the March lows. 3) This path is a lot less likely than the previous two but it’s still possible. Price breaks through the 713-718 resistance without a pull back and goes straight to 732-736. Price will then reject there and correct in a very harsh and fast way to the 680s or lower, then eventually finds support above the 200 dma and make a new all time high. 4) That’s the least likely path right now but I will definitely consider it and keep it in mind. We continue a blow off top towards 732-736 without a meaningful pullback, then lights out. An extreme non stop selling wave comes with small bounces in between all the way back to March lows, or lower. The least likely scenarios have been the ones playing out recently so don’t sleep on it. It’s too early to tell which one will end up playing out. I will have to take it one level at a time. It’s good however to keep these scenarios in your heads and on your charts to know how to react around each level (If this, then that).

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

#BREAKING: Warren Buffett says U.S. investors are in a “gambling mood” more than ever before.

$SPY Hope you all are enjoying your weekend. We’ll see how futures open tomorrow evening but the plan is simple regardless. The 5 dma is the key, a close below it on Monday without reclamation on Tuesday is a signal for me to get back in puts. If the 5 dma gets tested but holds instead, that’s a signal for me to get calls for the move to 728-732. That’s it. Enjoy your evenings✌️

$SPY Let’s apply what was learned. Shall we ? For me to get back in short I need either a close below the 5 dma or a rejection at 732-736, whichever comes first. A $5-$6 drop from here won’t interest me. If we get a dip early next week, and it looks like we might get it, I want to see whether the 5 dma holds or not. It should be around the 713 fib resistance now support. If price holds there that’ll be an opportunity for calls to ride the move to 728-732. If it doesn’t hold and price closes below it then that’s an opportunity for puts to target 702-695-688. If we get a pullback I’ll look for the 5 monthly sma as a bounce zone to buy calls and profit taking for puts. A pullback and a hold there will be super bullish. For bears to have anything, they have to invalidate the entire monthly candle of April, which will be very difficult, but not impossible, so be open minded about the entire rally fading, it can happen, but it’s not the most likely case anymore. One level at a time. I’ll leave you with that because I’ll log off the screens. I’ll go into the weekend in cash and I’ll see what we get Monday morning. Have a good weekend✌️

keyboard_arrow_left Previous keyboard_arrow_right Next

$SPY I can’t believe some people here can’t even buy the idea of a dip. Even if it’s a corrective dip to go higher afterwards, they are like “the market won’t drop again, we are going straight to 750-800.” Tough lessons will be taught to the greedy perma bulls soon. That’s just how markets work.