Blue Team @BlueTeam777

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A 22 year old in Manila bought 9 iPhones not to post on them but to watch them, and the wallet they feed has cleared +$287,000 on Polymarket in 6 months. His girlfriend cried at the receipt. His landlord asked if it was a call center. His mom lit a candle. His girlfriend still thinks he is jobless. The idea came from a stupid argument at a noodle shop. His cousin said TikTok shows everyone the same trending sound on Tuesdays. The kid said no, the For You page trains on you, not on the day. The cousin bet 500 pesos. The kid borrowed the cousin's phone, opened TikTok, and the feed was nothing like his. He still lost the bet. He could not prove it numerically. That night he wrote down the real question. If 9 phones, each trained for 30 days on a different niche, all start seeing the same clip on the same morning, what does that mean? It means the platform is about to push that clip to 200 million phones in the next 48 hours. And if the clip is political, or about a celebrity, or about a court case, or about a CEO, there is a Polymarket on it. Nobody trading that market is watching 9 phones at once. His wallet: polymarket.com/@collabbsucksa… Pause the video at 0:15. The phone on the far right of the dock has a black home screen. Zero icons. Only TikTok installed. That is phone 9. The clean control. If a clip hits phone 9, the trade is dead. Every other phone is a different person. Phone 1 on US politics. Phone 2 on Premier League. Phone 3 on K-pop. Phone 4 on crypto. Phone 5 on courtroom clips. Phone 6 on celebrity gossip. Phone 7 on Fed and macro. Phone 8 on Trump. 30 days of seeding each. Watch, like, save, repeat. No posting. He was feeding the algorithm a fake person to chase. The laptop runs OCR on every For You page every 60 seconds. When the same clip appears on 4 or more phones inside a 6 hour window, the script pings his watch. That ping is the trade. Last 4 lines from the log yesterday: "09:14 | clip 7384 | politics + macro | Powell resign rumor | short YES Powell exits by June | fill 600 sh @ 8¢ | +$182" "11:42 | clip 7401 | celebrity + courtroom | CEO indictment | long YES indictment by Friday | fill 380 sh @ 31¢ | +$94" "13:08 | clip 7419 | K-pop + crypto | group disbanding | skip | no liquid market" "15:30 | clip 7440 | politics + Trump | tariff escalation | long YES by month end | fill 420 sh @ 22¢ | +$211" Three fills. One skip when the matching market had $300 of liquidity total. 2,108 fills in 5 months. Worst day: -$1,140 when a clip about a politician dying turned out to be from 2019 and the script could not tell. Best day: +$14,300 the morning a single clip about a US senator hit 7 phones inside 90 minutes and the related market had not moved at all. He almost gave it away last month. His girlfriend noticed the phones never receive any of her texts. He told her they were "work phones for a Singapore client." She believed him. The phones do not receive texts because they are never logged into a real person. The wallet is in his cousin's name. Cousin takes 8%, asks no questions, still mentions the 500 pesos every time the kid pays for dinner. His landlord still thinks he runs a call center. Most traders on Polymarket read the news after the algorithm has pushed it. This one reads the algorithm before the news shows up. The trade is not the clip. The trade is knowing what TikTok is about to make real before TikTok knows.

rari @0xwhrrari

2 months ago

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A Chinese line cook in Trastevere got deported from his last job in Milan for "unauthorized use of restaurant wifi during shift hours." His boss said he was streaming. He was not streaming. He was scraping the city's traffic feed. He kept doing it anyway from a folding table in his rented room above a noodle place in Rome. Six months later that same line cook has cleared +$312K since December, and his mother in Wenzhou still thinks he is studying for the Italian residency exam. The deportation paperwork was for "abuse of employer network resources." The investigator pulled a year of his router logs. Nobody at the labor office understood what the requests actually did. They saw 9 million GET requests to a municipal endpoint and called it suspicious. He took the deportation order, moved to Rome anyway on a student visa, and went back to the scraper. The thing he had figured out by accident is that the city publishes a live restricted-zones feed 45 to 90 minutes before any newspaper runs a story about why the zone is restricted. When the polygon goes live around the Trevi Fountain, a Saudi delegation is 4 hours out. When it goes live around the Colosseum, an American is landing in Ciampino. The state declares the geometry before it declares the visit. He noticed because his old scraper kept flagging zones that did not correlate with any news he could find. He spent three weekends sitting in a cafe with a paper map watching motorcades pass and writing down what monument got cordoned for whom. Then he stopped scraping for restaurant data. He started timestamping geometries. His wallet: → polymarket.com/@marketing101?… The setup is three Mac minis on a folding table. He bought them off a guy moving back to Shanghai. UI/UX. DEV. ADMIN. Two monitors above them. One shows live maps of Rome with restriction polygons. The other shows the order book. UI/UX is not for design. UI/UX pulls and merges three public safety feeds. Three sources. Updated every 45 seconds. Free. By law. DEV runs the mapping. Trevi means Gulf state. Colosseum means American. Piazza Navona means EU. Vatican perimeter means anyone with a Catholic photo opportunity. He wrote the mapping by hand over six weekends. ADMIN places the maker order. Buy YES on the matching prediction market question at 11¢. Hold until the visit gets announced. Sell at 30 to 70¢ depending on how loud the news desk gets. Pause the video at 0:09. The screen on the right shows TARGET LOCK on Trevi. That is not a game overlay. That is a 600 meter restriction polygon that went live at 14:22 the day before any newspaper ran a story about a Saudi delegation visit. He had already placed the position 11 hours earlier. The TARGET LOCK label is borrowed from a Chinese strategy game his cousin played on weekends. He copied the UI because it looked clean. The reticle is a polygon. The polygon is the trade. Logs from yesterday: "07:48 | trevi 600m polygon live | match Saudi visit Italy question | long YES May | fill 1,400 sh @ 11¢" "10:14 | colosseum 400m polygon live | match Vance Europe trip question | long YES week | fill 900 sh @ 22¢" "13:05 | piazza navona 300m polygon live | match EU summit question | already priced 81¢ | skip" "19:22 | spanish steps 200m polygon live | match cultural event question | priced fair | skip" Two fills. Two skips when the polygon was already in the price. He has not told his mother any of this. He cannot tell his mother. The wallet is in his uncle's name. The uncle thinks he does Italian-Chinese translation work for tourism agencies. Uncle takes 8%, asks no questions, paid for two of the three Mac minis. The folding table cost 22 euros. The market it reads costs eleven million. Most traders read the news after the motorcade has already left the city. This one reads the cones before the motorcade has been ordered. The cook stopped competing with newspapers and started selling the geometry to them.

bl888m @bl888m_eth

2 months ago

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Obsidian + Claude Code = 24/7 personal operating system. Works while you sleep. Every note you have ever written becomes searchable intelligence. Every project updates itself automatically. Every morning briefing is ready before you open your laptop. The people who build this tonight will never work the same way again. Watch it and Bookmark it now.

CyrilXBT @cyrilXBT

2 months ago

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New for financial services: ready-to-run Claude agent templates for building pitches, conducting valuation reviews, closing the books at month-end, and more. Install them as plugins in Cowork and Claude Code, or use our cookbooks to run them in production as Managed Agents.

Up next: ▪︎ 1:00PM - A conversation with our co-founders Dario Amodei and Daniela Amodei, moderated by Chief Product Officer Ami Vora ▪︎ 1:50PM - Watch how @bcherny and @jarredsumner build with Claude Code

ClaudeDevs @ClaudeDevs

2 months ago

Code with Claude is happening now! ▪︎ 9:00AM - Keynote ▪︎ 10:30AM - What's new in Claude Code ▪︎ 11:15AM - Building on Claude at GitHub scale ▪︎ 12:00PM - Get to production faster with Managed Agents All times PT.

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Anthropic PM grabs the seat next to me on a train and stares at my laptop for a full stop. Terminal open. Markets scrolling. Claude Code pane on the right. He points at the screen. “You’re the reason our evaluation graphs suddenly have teeth.” I ask which ones. “The ones labeled ‘Polymarket graph experiment’. You mapped the manipulation network with our own model and then faded it.” He scrolls. Bot profile: polymarket.com/@yukaii?tab=po… One node per wallet. Edges where they co‑move the same markets. Clusters of wallets dragging prices into the same bad direction. “That’s not TA,” he says. “That’s a social graph with money on it.” I tell him the stack is stupid on purpose. One dataset with every wiggle it could find. One model that hates being lied to. One execution path short enough that I don’t talk myself out of the trade. The URLs fit on half a Post‑it: github.com/warproxxx/poly… Claude Code sits on top of all four. Loop: Scan 500+ markets. Score them by how much the “manipulation graph” is touching the orderbook. github.com/Polymarket/pol… Let Claude explain, in plain English, who is pushing and how wrong they probably are. Only then size and fire. He watches a cycle run. One market lights up: thick cluster of the same wallets, thin organic flow, headline nobody sane believes. github.com/Polymarket/age… Claude writes a three‑line thesis. “Crowd is being dragged 30–40 points off the implied base. Prob of resolution in line with priors: high. Manipulators are overpaying to move a number on a website.” Order goes in against them. Fill. +143. He blinks. “Everyone keeps asking us for ‘anti‑manipulation tools’,” he says. “You just used Claude to price the manipulator instead of the outcome.” “Exactly,” I tell him. “Most bots ask ‘what will happen’. Mine asks ‘who is yelling, and how wrong have they been historically’.” github.com/dylanpersonguy… He scrolls to the bottom of the article numbers. Graph says fading the cluster beats the raw market by a stupid margin. Copytrade here: kreo.app/@lunar He leans back. “OpenAI will say use Codex. Quants will say build a proper microstructure model. Old traders will say this is overfitted.” I shrug. “Claude saw the graph. GitHub gave it four limbs. The book did the grading on‑chain.”

Lunar @LunarResearcher

2 months ago

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7 repos that replace $150,000+/year in Polymarket trading infra 1. evan-kolberg/prediction-market-backtesting Backtesting engine for Polymarket and Kalshi strategies. NautilusTrader fork with custom adapters for both exchanges. Python + Rust. github.com/evan-kolberg/p… 2. warproxxx/poly_data Data pipeline for Polymarket: markets, orders, trades. Pulls from Gamma API and Goldsky subgraph, dumps to CSV. Ready foundation for any analytics. github.com/warproxxx/poly… 3. mneves75/polymarket-analyzer Terminal UI (TUI) for Polymarket's public APIs. Read-only - no trading, no private keys. github.com/mneves75/polym… 4. caiovicentino/polymarket-mcp-server MCP server that lets Claude trade on Polymarket via chat. 45 tools, DEMO mode available without a wallet. github.com/caiovicentino/… 5. PaulieB14/polymarket-orderbook-substreams On-chain orderbook indexer for Polymarket on Polygon (CTF Exchange + Neg Risk). Raw data sinks straight to Postgres or ClickHouse. github.com/PaulieB14/poly… 6. aulekator/Polymarket-BTC-15-Minute-Trading-Bot Trading bot for Polymarket's 15-minute BTC markets. Signals from Binance + Coinbase + Fear & Greed Index. 7-phase architecture, Grafana monitoring. github.com/aulekator/Poly… 7. warproxxx/poly-maker Automated market-making bot for Polymarket. Maintains orders on both sides of the book, parameters configured via Google Sheets. Same author as poly_data. github.com/warproxxx/poly… Traging here: trading here: polymarket.com/?r=zostaff

Couch @papa_couch

2 months ago

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You either plugged into our Polymarket BTC Up/Down bot 48h ago or you didn’t. 48 hours after this tweet, here’s what the data shows: - 412 active wallets, every single one in profit ~5% average return, top performers near 9% - Edge holding strong at 0.6-0.9% per capture - Zero drawdowns above 1.7% How to plug in: 1.Sign up at PolyArb (link in bio) 2.Copy your dedicated RPC URL 3. Open @jup_predict on Solana 4.Paste into Settings → Custom RPC 5.Activate the BTC Up/Down module Free to use. Profit-share only.

PolyArbiter @PolyArbiter

2 months ago

We built the cleanest BTC Up/Down bot on Polymarket. ⁠ We engineered the entire stack from scratch around one principle: never bet on outcomes, only capture mispricings. ⁠ How it works: When YES + NO sums to less than $1.00 on Polymarket’s 15-min BTC market, the engine fires

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A Chinese engineer from a Shanghai market-making shop told me Polymarket is leaking 40% of its volume to bots and nobody at the company has noticed. I met him through a founder I was helping in Jing'an. He used to run surveillance on the Asia desk at one of the bigger market makers. Quit after a bonus dispute. Sat across from me at a hotpot near Wujiang Road. "Every Western prediction market has the same disease. You assume the volume is real because the chart goes up. It isn't. It's the same couple hundred wallets I asked how he could tell. "Co-trade graph. Who buys the same side of the same market within 90 seconds. Then filter for self-funding" He flipped his phone over. Opened Polymarket. "Every weekend. Small market. Obscure crypto pair. Four wallets pump it together. They exit the same minute. One wallet funds the other three from a Coinbase deposit two weeks earlier. The price moves 6 percent on volume that doesn't exist" He pulled a napkin from under his beer. Drew six dots. Connected them. Wrote "fade". "You don't predict the market. You wait for the cluster to fire and you take the other side. The wallets are public. The trades are public. The addresses are on chain. Nobody is looking" His wallet, casual: polymarket.com/@kingofcoinfli… "On our desk we killed wash trading in 2022. Western platforms can't because the wallets are non-custodial. That's the bug. That's also the alpha" I flew home. Opened Claude Code. Typed what he said on the napkin. "Build a graph of every Polymarket wallet that co-trades the same market within 90 seconds for the last 18 months. Score each cluster on self-funding loops, sync entries, mirror exits, and price-impact pumps. When 3 of 4 score above 0.5, fade them" github.com/warproxxx/poly… 86M historical trades. Claude pulled the dump in one weekend. Ran community detection overnight using python-louvain. github.com/taynaud/python… Found 9 clusters. Filter killed 2. 7 left. 34 wallets moving 40 percent of the volume. Worst one runs every Saturday at 3am Singapore time. I caught it on day 4 and faded $120. Resolved at zero. Paid for the $25 stack for the next four years. Edge table live: Weekend pumps. 4 wallets. 92% follow-through. 5-minute snipers. 3 wallets. 78%. Token launch self-funders. 4 wallets. 85%. Election state markets. 5 wallets. 67%. For execution Claude wired in the official Polymarket SDK. github.com/Polymarket/py-… System kills 80 percent of signals. Enters 4-6 a day. Winners are 3.2x the losers. Fill rate 94 percent. Avg latency 18ms. Exit at 75c or hold to resolution. Never fade a cluster after a real news event. +$18,400 from $5,000 seed. 31 days. Sharpe 2.6. Max drawdown $890. Infrastructure: $20 Claude. $5 Hetzner. Three repos open source. $25/month. Copied the setup here: kreo.app/@lunar Texted him last week with the equity curve. "You mapped the graph" Claude wrote it from one napkin. "Good. Now check the political markets in October. Different cluster. Slower. Bigger size. You'll see" I already was. He could see it in the screenshot. Long pause. "You can't hide from a graph. The whole thing is on chain. You just had to look" I didn't argue. I just kept the graph running. The wallets are still there. Still synced. Still leaking. Nobody at Polymarket is looking. 40% of the volume. One napkin. One weekend with Claude.

Lunar @LunarResearcher

2 months ago

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A Jane Street alum paid my tab at Toby's Estate in Cape Town when he saw the wallet graph on my laptop I was working from a window seat. Burned out from a flight. Three Polymarket tabs and a half-rendered network plot of co-buying wallets on screen. He sat down two stools over. Didn't say anything for ten minutes. Then leaned across. "That a co-buy graph?" I nodded. "Polymarket?" I nodded again. He took out his phone. Tapped Apple Pay against the reader. My flat white and pastry. Then sat back down. "I left the desk eighteen months ago. Used to do stat arb on event markets. Tell me what you're seeing" I showed him the cluster. Four addresses. Sync entry within ninety seconds every Saturday. Mirror exit Sunday morning. He didn't blink. "That's not even the deepest one" He pulled up Polymarket on his phone. "Look at sub-$200k markets. Token launch outcomes. Trump tweet count. Random sports props. Same pattern. Different cluster" "They pump together. They exit together. One wallet funds the rest from a Coinbase deposit weeks earlier. Six percent move on volume that doesn't exist" "The trade is not predicting. It's fading. They pump, you take the other side, it mean reverts within the hour" "At Jane Street we'd flag this in twenty minutes. Here it runs for months. The wallets are non-custodial. There's no compliance to call. That's the bug. Also the alpha" He finished his espresso. Stood up. "Build it before they patch the API" Flew home. Opened Claude Code. "Pull every Polymarket trade. Build a co-buy graph at ninety seconds. Score self-funding, sync entry, mirror exit, price impact. Three of four above 0.5, fade them" github.com/warproxxx/poly… 86M trades pulled in a weekend. Community detection on Sunday. github.com/taynaud/python… WALLET HUNT. 9 communities. Filter killed 2. 7 left. 34 wallets running 40% of the volume. Edge table: Weekend pumps. 92% 5-min snipers. 78% Token launch self-funders. 85% Election state markets. 67% Execution wired into the official SDK. github.com/Polymarket/py-… Kills 80% of signals. Enters 4-6 a day. Winners 3.2x losers. Fill 94%. Latency 18ms. +$18,400 from $5,000 seed. Sharpe 2.6. $20 Claude. $5 Hetzner. $25/month. Setup here: kreo.app/@lunar Never got his name. Just the line he left me with at Toby's. "Build it before they patch the API" Still running. 4-6 fades a day.

Lunar @LunarResearcher

2 months ago

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Run OpenClaude fully FREE via NVIDIA NIM! Access your favorite open-source models. Zero cost. Grab a free key & cook 🔥

MICROSOFT BUILT AN MCP SERVER FOR PLAYWRIGHT and it changes how ai agents interact with the web most browser agents rely on screenshots + vision models to "see" the page playwright-mcp skips all that it reads the accessibility tree instead structured, clean, zero ambiguity your llm knows exactly what's on the page & what to do with it no hallucinated clicks no broken selectors works with cursor, vs code, claude desktop github.com/microsoft/play…

agentvm — the agent runtime that plugs into gitlawb. spawn N coding agents on one machine. each one gets: → sandboxed workspace (Seatbelt / bwrap) → its own HOME — no shared sessions, no trampled config → a gitlawb DID baked into git config → persistent attachable tmux session works with openclaude, claude code, codex, gemini, opencode, aider. agentvm spawn researcher -p claude-code agentvm spawn builder -p codex agentvm swarm 5 -p openclaude three agents, three DIDs. they branch, commit, push, review each other on Gitlawb — every action cryptographically attributed. multi-agent engineering with provenance from prompt to PR. github.com/Gitlawb/agentvm

Built clawsweeper, which runs 50 codex in parallel around the clock, scans issues/prs deep and closes what is already implemented or what makes no sense. Closed around 4000 issues today, a few thousand are in the pipeline. (rate limits are rough) github.com/openclaw/claws…

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