Chamath Palihapitiya @chamath
Social Capital 8090 God is in the details. chamath.substack.com In the Arena Joined April 2007-
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Two days out, a few spots left!
1 week out from our @EYnews x 8090 Modernization webinar. It will cover: ---> Discovery and Portfolio Analysis ---> Large-scale delivery ---> Practical methods for reverse engineering legacy ---> Where AI agents fit ---> How people approve/audit every step One
Yup
This was predicted by @chamath at the All In Pod at the beginning of the year. 👏
Build-vs-Buy Math is Now Squarely in Build For the entirety of the SaaS wave, it was always cheaper and faster to buy software vs build what you needed. But the buying cycle continues to get more complicated. Gartner says the buying group for a complex enterprise software purchase is 6-10 people. 77% of buyers describe their most recent purchase as very complex or difficult. That process exists for well known reasons: someone runs the security review, another negotiates the terms and another signs off on the risk. But because of AI, the “build” side of that comparison has now moved materially. When a “buy” evaluation still takes two or three quarters just to clear procurement but the workflow you want can now be specified, built, tested and running in production inside that same window, the oldest argument for buying, that it was the faster path is, no longer true. We built Software Factory to help large enterprises take advantage of AI’s deflationary economics and make a build vs buy decision much more competitive than it has been historically. How: bit.ly/3RNjXya
Søren Kierkegaard on the Importance of Walking “Above all, do not lose your desire to walk. Everyday, I walk myself into a state of well-being & walk away from every illness. I have walked myself into my best thoughts, and I know of no thought so burdensome that one cannot walk away from it. But by sitting still, & the more one sits still, the closer one comes to feeling ill. Thus if one just keeps on walking, everything will be all right.”
The insurance industry has priced the AI risk. Carriers went to state regulators this year asking to exclude AI-related damages from ordinary general liability policies. Regulators approved more than 80% of those requests, and the standard forms behind roughly 82% of American property and casualty coverage now carry a generative AI exclusion that gets attached at renewal. Underwriters are telling you they can't price a loss they can't inspect or audit . This is the same problem all large enterprises have with examiners, regulators or auditors when they ask “Show me what happened and demonstrate that your controls actually worked.” Imagine a bank builds an AI agent. The agent makes a decision that causes a $20M loss. The bank asks the insurer to cover it. The bank’s insurer asks: What exactly happened? Which model was running? What information did it receive? What tools did it invoke? What actions did it take? What rules constrained it? Was a human involved? Can you reproduce the sequence? If the answer is essentially “we don’t know - the model made the decision”, the bank has a nightmare and the insurer will balk. It can’t determine causality, negligence, controls, or even whether the same thing could happen tomorrow. But suppose the software has an immutable audit trail: Prompt → context → model → reasoning/action path → tool calls → data accessed → permissions → output → human approvals → final action Now the loss is inspectable. An insurer can underwrite it much more like conventional operational risk. Software that keeps a traceable record of what it did and why is how a regulated business answers these questions. This is the part we build: bit.ly/4za1VH0
Agreed
All other sources of energy combined are utterly insignificant compared to the Sun
50 to 80% of a software system's lifetime cost arrives after launch. At launch, a system integrator's delivery team rolls off to the next engagement, so the people who made design decisions are gone before the expensive years begin, and the support begins. Ask who takes the call three years in, when a regulation changes or the workflow the system was built around no longer exists. The engagement model was designed to end exactly when most of the cost begins. 8090 stays accountable for the code in production after go-live and keeps it current as the business changes. Learn more: bit.ly/4zhwMBA
@draecomino It doesn’t work in all cases as has been shown. It’s “reasonable best efforts” at best. For big companies this will be a non starter as they learn more.
This is a really good development. As model costs converge, the next likely step will be the use of independent 3rd party harnesses/control planes (8090 Software Factory, Palantir, Nous’ Hermes etc). A 3rd party harness + the ability to use any model quasi-interchangeably is something all enterprises will ask for within 36 months as they realize the importance of data/IP leakage and keeping complete sovereignty of their encoded judgement.
@Srikantht All worlds lead to AI on prem or VPC imo
@dragosroua If the harness isn’t dependent on a specific model and can give access to it contextually, then yes.
It took longer than expected but Perimeter is changing the nature of cancer surgery…
I came out of the AI hardware world where most of what gets labeled a "breakthrough" is a benchmark. This is a U.S. industry first that’s changing the patient experience -- a surgeon can now use a model's output to change a decision before the patient leaves the OR. I’m very
Every year Gallup measures how many people report to a single manager across the American workforce. The number jumped from 11 to 12 in a single year, the fastest move in the decade they have been tracking it. The driver can be heard on every restructuring call: companies are cutting middle management roles and distributing the remaining employees across fewer remaining managers. Gallup's own data says engagement peaks when a manager has eight or nine direct reports. Because that is roughly the number where a person can still give real feedback and know what their people are actually working on. Past fifteen it falls off a cliff. The question that matters most today is not how many names sit under a given title on an org chart but what percentage of each person's week goes to the work that requires their judgment vs the work that just keeps the operation running. The companies that are pulling ahead are the ones that moved the routine work out of the human week entirely, so the people still in the room are spending their hours on customers, on the calls only a person can make and on the thinking the business actually competes on. How we help: bit.ly/4q9XIis
Tesla is going all in on nuclear. Actually it’s going all in on solar but they are the same thing - the sun is a nuclear reactor, just farther away.
Were the polls actually completely off or did a bunch of mainstream media decide to lie and try to push Wisconsin towards socialism? Seems like it failed regardless.
Last 5 Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary Polls State Navigate: 🔵 Hong +22 Public Policy Polling: 🔵 Hong +18 Marquette University: 🔵 Hong +25 State Navigate: 🔵 Hong +29 Public Policy Polling: 🔵 Hong +20 Results (88% Reporting): 🟡Crowley +0.5
The market is reducing itself to: Technology people who knows how this stuff works Vs Everyone else who has no idea and so gets short because it violates their non-technology priors
CoreWeave $CRWV: We recently signed an A-100 contract that extends into 2029. This SKU was introduced in 2020.
Making progress every week… Try it here: 8090.ai
Big release week for Software Factory: Major Features Skills Module Create and edit agent skills in a dedicated module, collaborate with teammates on them, and publish them to an organization-wide Skills Library for reuse across projects. Durable Agents Agents keep running in
Retiring spreadsheets in favor of software… 8090 built the system that now runs part and model numbering inside BISSELL’s product development organization. The rules that a handful of expert reviewers once enforced by hand are now written into software, requests that follow them are approved in seconds. Reviewers only give their attention to the requests that need it. Also, because the system is built with the help of our Software Factory, it is well documented, auditable and can change on a dime by simply editing the rules. The system now runs at about half the annual cost of the process it replaced.
An engineer sends twenty part names for approval and waits on a reviewer's calendar, even for the sixteen a computer could have approved on sight. BISSELL retired that process. 8090 wrote the reviewers' rules into software, and 81.4% of parts now approve in seconds at half the
There is a bipartisan bill in the House right now that would require federal agencies to produce an inventory of their legacy systems along with a five year plan for each one. Think about what it means that this has to be legislated. These systems were built by a rotating cast of contractors across 30 to 40 years. A map of what was built and why was never even a deliverable. Now the code outlives the reasoning behind the system. That is the real modernization problem, and you do not solve it by signing another contract that produces more code and still no record. Every system an agency runs should be able to explain itself: what it does, why it was built that way, and which requirement each part traces back to. Building that record in from the start is what makes the next modernization cheaper than the last one. Where we start: bit.ly/45RmgTZ
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