Charting Prodigy & Trader Extraordinaire! The Thinker! Youtube's Premier Analyst, Chart Truth Detector, Master Swing Trader and the Doctor of Dump & Pump!!!youtube.com/channel/UCmlfS… This is NOT financial advice Joined July 2015
.
S&P 500 Daily Chart
The January bottom, rally & pullback I predicted has happened. The top is not in on SPX. This is just a pullback.
SPX will likely test the tariff selloff low from Monday with either a higher low or lower low. SPX could still get a bigger Fibonacci retracement. The 61.8% retracement is at 5909. The CPI gap fill is at 5843. It may not go that low but could. I watching for clues to see if Monday's tariff scare low will hold. That may have been the bottom.
Once done, the advance will resume and S&P 500 will make new ATHs in the final phase of the blow-off top.
$SPX $SPY #SP500 $VOO $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $AAPL $NVDA
.
Another Bitcoin Update -
BTC Momentum Still Bearish
New Bitcoin Highs Coming Soon
Just Nailing the BTC Turns
See the link for my earlier Bitcoin post
x.com/ChartingProdig…
$BTC #BTC#BTCNews $MSTR $MARA #Bitcoin#BitcoinReserve #Altseason $ETH $SOL $NVDA $SPX $SPY $QQQ
.
BTC Update as Requested
Bitcoin Momentum Still Bearish
BTC Pullback Either Done or Almost Done
Bitcoin got rejection at the 10 day MA (red line). The S&P 500 is testing the 10 day MA right now. BTC turned off of the 10 day MA. Looking for a higher low on BTC or lower low to
.
BTC Update as Requested
Bitcoin Momentum Still Bearish
BTC Pullback Either Done or Almost Done
Bitcoin got rejection at the 10 day MA (red line). The S&P 500 is testing the 10 day MA right now. BTC turned off of the 10 day MA. Looking for a higher low on BTC or lower low to complete the pullback. I expect the January bottom low that I called and predicted will hold.
Microstrategy MSTR reports earnings after the closing bell. MSTR has huge exposure to BTC and their earnings or price movement after earnings could impact Bitcoin.
Again, looking for a higher low or lower low to complete the BTC bottom.
Once BTC rallies towards the upper channel line on the weekly chart, it will likely top. Maybe on disappointment that there will no Bitcoin Strategic Reserve or an Inflation scare or what ever the catalyst may be.
Charts below for your inspection.
$BTC #BTC#BTCNews $MSTR $MARA #Bitcoin#BitcoinReserve
.
The S&P 500 continues to be following IBIT 's lead. The Bitcoin ETF IBIT is nearly a carbon copy of the S&P 500. It filled the tariff gap on Monday, the S&P 500 and filled it on Tuesday. IBIT sold off on Tuesday, the S&P 500 followed. It's down 1% right now.
If IBIT takes out the tariff sellof low, it might fill the gap at 53.22. It is still possible that IBIT and the S&P 500 get a bigger Fibonacci retracement.
Again, looking for a higher low or lower low for both to complete the pullback. That will be followed by new ATHs for both to finish their blow-off tops.
$IBIT $BTC $BTCUSD #BTC#BTCUSD #Bitcoin#BitcoinReserve $SPX $SPY #SP500 $QQQ
.
JUST NAILING THE TURNS
The November Bottom as Predicted.
The Election rally as Predicted.
The day of the December top and January bottom as Predicted
January rally as Predicted
New SPX highs as Predicted
January pullback to backtest the Bull Flag as Predicted
Reversal With Bear Flag at DeepSeek Gap Fill as Predicted
A Third S&P 500 pullback as tariff gap fill as Predicted.
The gap lower on the S&P 500 is likely to test Monday's tariff selloff low. A higher low or lower low will form to finish the pullback. It is still possible that SPX takes out Monday's low to reach a deeper Fibonacci retracment.
Once the pullback is done SPX will resume the advance to new ATHs and move towards the next level of resistance, which is my target level for the S&P 500. Then it will complete the blow-off top and start a major reversal to kick-off a new bear market. I remain bullish.
$SPX $SPY #SP500 $QQQ $NDX $AAPL $NVDA
Sorry But Trump's Tariffs Don't Cause Inflation
Trump the Tariff Sheriff
A lot of talk about tariffs these days and trade wars. The media has told us we are about to have a trade war and see inflation soar, yet so far it hasn't happened.
The Colombian Tariffs were rescinded, the 25% tariffs on Mexico & Canada have been paused. Trumps using the tariffs as a bargaining chip with a page taken straight out of His book "The Art of the Deal." Now with retaliatory tariffs announced by China, diplomatic negotiations will soon take place between Trump the Tariff Sheriff and President Xi.
Trump will likely get concessions out of China has He has already gotten from Columbia, Canada and Mexico. Those leaders immediately caved with the Tariff Sheriffs bargaining chip of tariffs.
Now I'm not a fan of tariffs because they act like a tax, but the they don't cause inflation. However, I would happily pay more with tariffs if it helped stopped human tr*fficking and the drug crisis at the boarders. I value human life more than paying a little more for something because of a tariff. Nevertheless, we don't have tariffs in place right now with Columbia, Canada or Mexico because Trump's tariffs are changing behavior and the U.S. is getting the concessions it wants from its neighbors.
The media and Trump's political rivals are spreading a new hoax that the tariffs cause inflation, in another attempt to score political points against President Trump. Most people believe this is true, it's not. While I'm no fan of Trump's tariffs, I'm not going to lie about the tariffs just because I don't like them and say they are inflationary when they aren't.
Scott Bessent on Tariffs
Our new Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has correctly argued against the notion that tariffs cause inflation and He's right! Bessent recently pointed out "tariffs can’t be inflationary because if the price of one thing goes up, unless you give people more money, then they have less money to spend on the other thing, so there is no inflation."
In summary, what Bessent is basically pointing out that an increase in prices due to tariffs would be offset by reduced spending elsewhere, maintaining a neutral impact on overall inflation. He's correct. The tariffs of 2018-2019 didn't cause inflation. During the that period CPI Inflation actually went down not up. If tariffs don't cause inflation, what does?
What Causes Inflation
Bessent has emphasized that inflation primarily comes from increasing the money supply or government spending, not from tariffs. Bessent pointed out during confirmation hearings that "inflation comes through either increasing the money supply or increasing the government spending." Bessent is absolutely correct but the media will likely be successful in convincing the public that the tariffs will cause inflation, when they won't.
#tariffs#tariffs2025 #presidentXi #xingxing#ChinaSuarez#Trump#tradewars #tradewar#ClaudiaSheinbaum#JustinTrudeau#Trudeau#TrumpTariffs #economy#recession#inflation $SPX $SPY $QQQ $NDX #SP500 $IWM $RUT $DJIA $NVDA $AAPL $GOOG $AMZN $TSLA $AMD #AI#Cowboys#Sheriff#presidentsheinbaum #president#StockMarketcrash #StockMarket#Trumpcoin #ArtOfTheDeal#deepseek#deepseekai $BTC #BTC $IBIT #Bitcoin#StockMarket#media
.
S&P 500 Support Levels
The S&P 500 is filling the Tariff Gap Down at 6040. It got rejection when it filled the DeepSeek gap at 6101. If it gets rejection here and moves below Monday's Tariff Selloff low SPX could reach the golden pocket fibonacci levels between 61.8% at 5909 or the 78.6% near 5850. The CPI gap fill is just below that at 5843.
Again, S&P 500 may have bottomed and just set up a higher low, but if it tests Monday's low, these are the next support levels. VWAP & Horizontal Support levels come in play at the golden pocket.
$SPX $SPY $ES_F #SP500 $QQQ #tariffwar#tariffs#trump#inflation $NVDA $AAPL
.
The Bitcoin ETF & S&P 500
The BTC ETF ( IBIT ) has often been leading the S&P 500 or moving in lockstep with it. IBIT already filled the Tariff Gap Down and turned off it. Now S&P 500 just filled that gap a few minutes ago. Below IBIT might fill the gap at 53.22, which is the CPI gap.
IBIT may not fill that gap right now, but it could. Bitcoin got rejection at its 10 day MA today on the daily chart after IBIT filled the Tariff Gap, S&P 500 could do the same thing.
Possible bullish divergences end up forming on IBIT and a divergences for SPX in the most recent price action. Food for thought.
$IBIT $BTC #BTC#SP500 $SPX $SPY $ES_F $QQQ $NDX $AAPL $NVDA #Bitcoin#BTCNews
.
S&P 500 & Bitcoin
S&P 500 may still get one more push lower to tag the 61.8% fib (earlier post) if Justin Trudeau makes the foolish choice of not making concessions to Trump. He's going to speak to Trump this hour.
So far he's made really dumb choices, so that could give the stock market & Bitcoin a little more volatility. However, the bottom may be in and we just get a higher low.
Mexico's President caved and came to her senses, I don't know if if Justin Trudeau does the same yet. He might need more persuading. I haven't seen Him do one smart thing yet.
$BTC #Bitcoin $ES_F $SPX $SPY #SP500 $VIX $QQQ $NDX #PCE#CPI#NASDAQ100#TradeWar#tariffs#Trump#TrumpTariffs #Recession#inflation $IWM $RUT $DJIA $DJI $DIA $AAPL $GOOG $TSLA $NVDA #blowofftop#FOMC#Powelll#DeepSeekR1 #DeepSeek
.
SPX Elliott Wave (ii) Finishing Then The Final Push Higher
In the weekend video, I told you we would see concessions from both Canada & Mexico due to the tariffs. Mexico's President just caved, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is next. The selloff I predicted last week has happened. Bottom forming.
Once Elliot Wave (ii) of Minor Wave 5 Finishes. Then expect the advance to resume to new ATHs on the S&P 500. SPX will likely rally into the upper boundary of the Rising Wedge to complete the blow-off top.
A major top will form soon followed by an immediate 20% crash move to kick off the bear market. Recession is coming soon and the stock market will top before it starts and begin to price that in.
$ES_F $SPX $SPY #SP500 $VIX $QQQ $NDX #PCE#CPI#NASDAQ100#TradeWar#tariffs#Trump#TrumpTariffs #Recession#inflation $IWM $RUT $DJIA $DJI $DIA $AAPL $GOOG $TSLA $NVDA #blowofftop#FOMC#Powelll#DeepSeekR1 #DeepSeek
.
Nailing the S&P 500 Turns
I warned you the pullback that I predicted at the January highs wasn't done at the DeepSeek gap fill. I warned you of another push down. That's now happened. The bear flag I warned about at the DeepSeek gap fill has played out very nicely.
A bullish divergence or confirmation of a higher low will probably form here on the RSI and MACD on the 5 minute chart. Probably with more uncertainty surrounding diplomatic talks with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Mexico's President already caved. Trudeau is next.
$ES_F $SPX $SPY #SP500 $VIX $QQQ $NDX #PCE#CPI#NASDAQ100#TradeWar#tariffs#Trump#TrumpTariffs #Recession#inflation $IWM $RUT $DJIA $DJI $DIA $AAPL $GOOG $TSLA $NVDA #blowofftop#FOMC#Powelll#DeepSeekR1 #DeepSeek
508 Followers 493 FollowingRetired Conservative Independent - Believe in God, Honesty, Fairness and working hard every day- Stuck with me since I was a boy scout in the 60's.
161 Followers 1K Followingرجل متابع للإقتصاد وبارع فيه خبره ٢٤ سنه في الأسهم الأمريكيه. أكتب ما يجول بخاطري في عدة مواضيع وليست بالضروره أشياء من تجارب شخصيه.
470 Followers 800 FollowingMediocre trombonist; Reasonably decent husband; Excellent grandfather; Concerned citizen. Opinions expressed are things I found lying around somewhere.
3K Followers 3K FollowingComms @cayimby. Prev. advocacy @yimbydemssd & product marketing at U.S. Digital Response.
Tweets on housing, climate change, and San Diego/California politics
89 Followers 422 FollowingQuant, Macro Commentator, Commodities, Grunge Lover, Cyclist.
The views expressed are my own and do not reflect the views of my Company
1K Followers 2K FollowingInvestigative Journalist. Banned by Stocktwits CEO for exposing $AABB naked shorts. Tracking the Stars, the Lies, the Occult, and today's Political climate.