𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 @ColnTiCrypto

Still looking to rebuy $BTC around $51k. Not trying to time the bottom. Just interested in getting a good entry for the next 4+ years. My latest video (still 100% valid) covers the logic behind my target:

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57 years ago

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#CBBI has normally been very good at calling $BTC cycle bottoms. With a current score of 32, it says we have a little way to go. If it goes under 5 things begin to look likely for a bottom. Learn more: cbbi.info @CBBI_daily @monicz

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Last cycle, $BTC spent 46 weeks below the 200-week moving average. This cycle (so far), $BTC has been below it for just 1-2 weeks. Many point to the 200-week MA as a bottom zone indicator, but it has historically been an extremely wide and variable zone. The two cycles before the last one had much briefer durations below the 200-week MA, but those were due to sudden drops below it that rebounded quickly. Price in the current cycle has chopped around the 200-week MA without a sharp break lower, unlike the brief dips and quick rebounds in the two prior cycles. This behavior may produce a longer duration below the average. Furthermore, in all three previous cycles, the price declined to near the 300-week MA (not pictured). That has not occurred yet. A move to that zone would involve additional time below the 200-week MA. Thus, it looks to me like everything is still lining up for a cycle low later this year, likeliest to be within a month of October (as a starting point for an educated guess). Bear market patience is a marathon-- not a sprint.

$BTC Continuing to patiently wait for the bear market to end. We are getting closer. I think there's at least one more decent-sized shakeout & then we will be well within bottoming territory. I've been bearish since November 14, 2025. I will be happy to pivot back to bullish. And to those who want to tell me the bear market bottom is already in: You've been telling me that this entire cycle. The thing is: It's not impossible for the bottom to be in already (although I personally think we go lower), but the main point is you are GUESSING if you call the bottom in before we see actual structural change And by structural change I mean: BTC needs to reclaim the 200-day moving average (white line) as well as the downtrending trend line (dotted white line) that connects the cycle top through the lower highs on the way down. Then we can talk about the bottom being in with some degree of confidence. I prefer to go with stronger evidence of trend change. 'Til then, people are just guessing.

Just for the record I'm bullish on AI-biotech company $ABCL (@AbCelleraBio) I'm bullish because: - The company has incredible fundamentals that I think have been overlooked (meaning the company is undervalued imo). They've been cooking on their tech and vertical integration, while critics wrongly dismiss them as a sleeping giant or a relic of the pandemic era. This is the big mistake, imo. - They have a fantastic team & very intelligent leadership (Carl Hansen is a big thinker and gives every indication of being a great leader). - They are averse to share dilution. - Biotech in general is a hot sector right now (most major biotech ETFs are breaking out, such as GNOM, IBB, XBI [SPDR S&P Biotech]) - ABCL's chart looks fantastic (see attached). From a TA-perspective, the chart has clearly bottomed, confirmed by the breakout of a massive, multi-year inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. This foretells a big move ahead, assuming the right shoulder holds (that's the invalidation point-- around $2.90). In crypto terms, this is like a rare altcoin that *actually* has strong fundamentals and isn't just a picture of a dog on a coin. This is not a short-term hold for me. It's a multi-year hold, minimum, and maybe a decade-long hold. They have a drug called "ABCL635" that is close to its phase 2 results (see the vertical line I drew on the chart where I think this may be announced). If it's a success, this will be incredibly validating and positive for the company and price. If it fails then expect a big pull-back-- perhaps a drop of 50%. Even if this drug's phase 2 results are sub-par, the company still looks strong to me. The company is a powerful machine that is going to pump out drugs with innovative technology. This is all my opinion of course. I'm aware this isn't crypto-related, so I won't frequently post about it, in order to keep my channel crypto-focused. But just thought I'd share that I like the company and I have a position in it. Obviously this is not financial advice. I'm just sharing what I see here. I noticed you are into biotech as well, @IncomeSharks. This is one of the hotter plays in the biotech sector-- if not the hottest-- imo.

Biotech ETF Breakouts - $GNOM is the Global X Genomics & Biotechnology ETF. It tracks global companies specializing in gene editing, genomic sequencing, and genetic medicine. - $IBB is the iShares Biotechnology ETF. It is one of the oldest and largest funds tracking standard U.S. biotechnology companies. These charts highlight a strong, highly coordinated technical breakout across the sector. Both funds are pushing past multi-year resistance levels following massive consolidation periods. Imo, $ABCL is best positioned to take advantage of these industry-wide breakouts.

Oh sh*t. Saylor literally bought $BTC high and sold low 😮 I hate to see what’s to come in the next several months when BTC likely drops even lower. Dividends will need to be paid that entire time. I think it’s likely more BTC is sold by Strategy to fund his Stretch products

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57 years ago

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As a sidenote: it’s interesting how the BTC price hasn’t collapsed on the back of this news. That means we are probably getting closer to the bottom when bad news doesn’t crash the price anymore.

$BTC Bear Market Progress* ▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓▓░░░░░ 73% BTC has been in a bear market since Oct 6, 2025. Historical bear markets (from top to bottom) have been roughly one year long. That would mean we're already 73% of the way through, *if BTC has another 12-month bear market. The good news: we could be pretty far along already.

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57 years ago

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This is my feel on the market as well. $BTC to form a lower high in the coming 2-8 weeks, and then a lower low for the final bottom later this year, in several months probably.

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57 years ago

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We’re at the stage of the $BTC bear market where “Bitcoin is heading toward zero” or “Dying”. That means we’re getting closer to the bottom— probably just months away.

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57 years ago

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ALTCOIN RISK I sold 100% of my altcoins earlier this year (around February if I recall correctly) per my perceived risk of the market. I posted this publicly. I had determined that we were in a bear market a few months prior (in mid November) and I decided it was likely that ALTS would UNDERperform BTC (aka bleed) for the foreseeable future-- minimally until the bear market bottoms, but probably longer. I think it's likely that ALTS will bleed **as priced against BTC** (ALT/BTC pairs) for years after the bear market bottoms (altseason usually happens toward the end of a BTC bull run, and we are far from the end of the next cycle). Thus, I personally do not think DOG (nor MOST altcoins) have a bright future minimally for a few *years*, and honestly, by then, it will probably be a new batch of coins that gets the spotlight and not old coins. This is the straight truth as I see it, without sugar coating. Good luck my friend.

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57 years ago

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$STRC @Strategy has $1.4B of cash reserves. I believe BTC could spend up to ~3 months below $60k during this bear market cycle. Selling BTC and using up USD reserves are each a signal of stress. The market doesn't like to see stress, therefore expect the STRC price to drop further to account for this increased perceived risk. Their June 22 announcement stated they increased the USD reserve to $1.4 billion and “plan to continue replenishing it to support the credit quality of its Digital Credit securities.” This frames USD reserves as the intended buffer to demonstrate sustainable coverage without relying on BTC sales. Since $STRC does not want to signal weakness by selling BTC (which would undermine the BTC treasury thesis), it is more likely to draw down its USD reserves to continue making dividend payments. Here's the math, though. At 11.50% annual payment: Monthly obligation: ~$100.5 million 3 months obligation: ~$301.5 million Yearly obligation: ~$1.206 billion That's a significant drawdown on the reserves. This would likely scare the market further. There has been significant debate around whether STRC is a "Ponzi scheme". Those who have invested in it are highly defensive of this term. In my opinion it does qualify as a Ponzi in the sense that new money is taken in to fund existing obligations. Whether you agree or not, it's plain to see that STRC is in a time of stress when the chart looks like this (see attached). I warned of the risks in my prior post, but it was mostly met with disregard (see below).

𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto

4 months ago

I’ve been seeing a lot of euphoric bullposting about $STRC. It's an interesting financial product, but I will be the black sheep and state that I personally feel it’s too risky of an investment. $STRC doesn't really give you any guarantees (despite seeming like guaranteed fixed

37 14 200 76K 96

$STRC dropped lower and it's not done yet, I'm afraid.

I’ve been seeing a lot of euphoric bullposting about $STRC. It's an interesting financial product, but I will be the black sheep and state that I personally feel it’s too risky of an investment. $STRC doesn't really give you any guarantees (despite seeming like guaranteed fixed income) and it absolutely DOES carry risks: ———— RISKS ———— • Dividends are NOT guaranteed — The board can slash, defer, or kill them anytime. Yield vanishes exactly when markets crack. • No price floor — Nothing stops it crashing below $100 (it already has). In a crisis it could tank hard, handing you permanent capital losses. • You’re junior and exposed — STRC is equity. All corporate debt and senior STRF preferred stock come first. In bankruptcy, liquidation, or meltdown, you could recover zero after creditors wipe you out. • Unlimited dilution — Strategy can flood the market with unlimited new STRC (or even senior preferreds) via ATM without your approval, spiking obligations and crushing value. • Liquidity evaporates fast — Trading dries up in stress, spreads explode, and constant new issuance slams supply pressure. You may be forced to sell at fire-sale prices. • Zero safety net — Not FDIC-insured, not a bond, not like Treasuries or MMFs. Pure high-risk equity dressed up as “yield.” ———— BOTTOM LINE ———— $STRC offers attractive yield with lower volatility than MSTR or spot BTC, plus indirect BTC exposure via a company with massive holdings and cash runway. ⚠️ However, it embeds significant counterparty, structural, and model risks—it's equity, not "safe" yield. ⚠️ In a BTC bull market with continued raises, it has performed as designed (18% lifetime return including dividends/price). ⚠️ In a multi-year bear or capital freeze, principal and dividends face real pressure (up to total loss in extreme scenarios). This is high-risk for income-seeking investors bullish on Strategy long-term. ⚠️ Die-hard STRC proponents will probably hate this post, but it is just sharing the risks. They should be known and they are real. I have seen a lot of bullposting lately without any mention of any risks whatsoever. Be informed. I think Michael Saylor is great and MicroStrategy ($MSTR) is great. I'm just a conservative investor and like to protect my capital. ———— READ MORE RISKS BELOW ——— grok.com/share/bGVnYWN5…

How it's going x.com/ColinTCrypto/s…

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57 years ago

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$61.8k is the most likely rejection level of the current $BTC bounce

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57 years ago

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Did I absolutely frickin nail that or what?

$BTC bear market synopsis in 12 seconds

$BTC From the low $50k's on down, I'm looking at as a buying opportunity. Imo, DCA is intelligent below $52k. NFA