Crypto El Presidente @CryptoElPre

Almost everyone here is a sell out. Rather than writing a long rant about why 99% of CT are all spineless grifters, I'll save my breath. Karma will come for you, one way or another. I could probably list a single handful of people who haven't actually sold out in some way. Most of CT lacks any integrity, morals or otherwise. But again - karma will come. 🫵

By most exchange data, if our daily cycle top is in fact in: it was right translated. (i.e. the 7th June high was higher than the 21st May high.) Having formed a left translated daily cycle, into a right - then I would expect the next daily cycle to be bullish and right translated (unless we lose the 1st of May low.) Having said that, that could look like the below. Which means we could 'chop' in our range into early August, and still have plenty of time to then break the range and take new ATHs. The scribble is largely arbitrary and isn't a prediction - more so just a visualization of how this could play out which would be totally logical and reasonable in terms of cycle theory and would mean we aren't about to rip any second, but we aren't also about to nuke - nor are we going to chop until Summer is over. Is this max pain? Probably. Because almost everybody loses, whilst you have potentially another almost 60 days of time based capitulation as people are mentally destroyed by market that refuses to give clear direction. Of course, I hope this totally wrong and we find out next DCL at worst and just catapult to new highs in July (which is equally as feasible.) But the idea is sound afaic, yet ultimately, it's not an idea that falls into any of the extremes.

People always fall into the extremes. It's either over, or we're so back. My timeline right now is fully of dramatic, sensational posts in either direction. People draw FAR too many HTF conclusions from LTF PA. Your brain likes extremes because they're simple. Your brain is lazy and to think it such terms is extremely efficient and effortless. But scarcely is it useful, especially not in the markets. It's not over, nor are we so back. We're literally sat in the same f*cking range we have been for ~3 months. That's all you can objectively draw from this afaic. The rest is just monkey brain speculation on polarizing outcomes. "We're literally about to rip and leave all bears behind!" "We're going sideways all Summer confirmed." "$44k incoming, mid-cycle top." Or we could: Chop and dip into our next DCL, to a level which isn't nearly as low as most of the extremes are calling for, then reverse to the upside, leave the range and enter price discovery sometime during July. And every single person parroting the three generic outcomes above ends up being wrong. Yet the behavior would be totally logical and reasonable afaic. 😖

El Presidente @CryptoElPres

3 years ago

This is 99% of CT. This is your competition.

9 7 79 22K 5

@capnpepe1 I hope you're happy now 🤣🤣

Missed FOMC, but I got the info I need. Purple tie baby. But first, flush late longs. 😏

We aren't going to see cuts today. Suggesting this is just engaging in fanaticism. (Yes, you can absolutely meme the f*ck out of me if we do, because we won't. 🤭) Having said that, I think July could be on the table and an unexpected and rapid repricing of cuts back into the market has always been my expectation. CME currently has July at a 85.5% probability of a continued pause. We could very quickly see the tables turn on that this evening if Powell speaks the right words. September is already over 2/3 in favor of cuts. So unless there's an unaccounted for curveball, then July / September seems most probable. As always, I'm of the opinion that they'll mark the beginning of the end, not the end of the beginning.

7th of June low is invariably the half cycle low here. If $KAS is as bullish rn as we all believe, new ATHs should come before ~10th July. 🫴

El Presidente @CryptoElPres

2 years ago

$KAS is right in the window for a perfect half-cycle low. So don't be disheartened by this dip - it's what you want to see. ATHs should come in the weeks ahead.

10 5 100 14K 6

Based on the count as I have it: $ETH right in the window for a daily cycle low. Yesterday could be the low (59 day DCL), or it may come in up until the 18th (in the next 6 days) Naturally we should expect another right translated 60 day cycle if $ETH is going to continue bullish and protection of the current low being set. So I'd expect us to see $4,100+ $ETH before the ~10th of August 2024. My assumption is that $ETH will continue bullish, especially after forming 3 RT'd daily cycles followed by a left, into another right. Loss of the 4H 200s whilst forming the daily cycle low is fine, once reclaimed cleanly (which would my confirmation trigger of a DCL), then I would expect those to be defended and price to remain above those at least until the next 60 day cycle top is in. If we form a low, take a clean reclaim of the 4H 200s and then proceed to lose that low - then (on the assumption my count is correct) that would suggest a bearish outlook for $ETH.

Correction: this was actually the 2H timeframe. 🤦‍♂️ Per the 1H timeframe, $BTC has technically only been "oversold" to this degree once since the FTX lows, which was December 11th.

El Presidente @CryptoElPres

2 years ago

$BTC has been to this degree oversold on the H1 timeframe only twice since the FTX crash. December 11th 2023 and January 22nd 2024 (depicted by vertical dotted lines.)

23 12 159 28K 9

$BTC has been to this degree oversold on the H1 timeframe only twice since the FTX crash. December 11th 2023 and January 22nd 2024 (depicted by vertical dotted lines.)

What if we just end up with a giant FOMC inverted H&S? The inverted F U O M C 🤫

FOMC dump, like clockwork 😅 $BTC

$BTC consolidating above prior ATH and my timeline is dominated with: + downside targets + "sideway summer" + hedging tweets + generally hyper emotional "invest0rs" Wild times. Closing the daily < $67k right now would be a pretty ugly look, but anything above that is fair game imo. Friday morning everyone was bordering euphoric, a single -5% candle and now people have reverted to "it's over" lol. gcszn.exe

One $BTC price, 8 different emotions. $69k has been quite the rollercoaster huh.

When will we see a new $BTC ATH / price discovery?

Any guesses as to what happens if $TAO successfully reclaims the uptrend? 🤫

$KAS is right in the window for a perfect half-cycle low. So don't be disheartened by this dip - it's what you want to see. ATHs should come in the weeks ahead.

If I had no idea what the charts looked like and was simply looking around at all the headlines, news articles and sensational media rn - I’d assume we were at or close to a top. Ofc, I don’t think we are at a top (yet), but I’m even more cautious seeing all of this floating about. For most of the market, bad news is good news and good news is bad news. Eventually, good news will actually seemingly be good news - and that’s when people think it’s a ‘new paradigm’. In reality, that just means you’re close to or at a top. Yet over the past 2 months the general theme as far as I can tell has shifted far more again in favour of “we’re not even close.” If PA starts to follow these headlines (i.e. good news accompanying strong upward price action) then IMO it’s time to be extremely vigilant. I still think we top this year, and probably pre-election - but of course will let the charts dictate that. Just thinking out loud. Although I’m extremely optimistic on the months ahead, it’s optimism laced with caution and skepticism.

ps shout out my boy @i_am_jackis - who was the first person I saw talk about the BTC/NVDA chart 🤌

If there was ever a time for $BTC to throw a God candle, it's right about now. Do it. 🫴