The Famous Wall Street trick- wear everyone out and then drop it.
Rounded top to an Ugly breakdown.
A sucker rally next week to 6550 before final checkmate move to 6000
$SPX $SPY
Next week is another change to load puts again because:
Q1 Window dressing.
Short week (Good Friday- market closes on Friday next week).
Calls might print.
=> Shorts covering = Rally + some good news about the war.
$SPY
PSA:
Next Tuesday will be EOQ1 Window Dressing/Rebalancing.
Also we got a short trading week as Friday is closed for Good Friday.
Historically the week of Good Friday has been kind to bulls averaging about +.80% for the week dating back to 1960.
My $SPY scenario is similar like last April:
Early rally next week due to Q1 ending rebalance + Good Friday holiday (close on Friday next week) = $SPY could pump to 645-655 with low volumes.
Second week of April when PPI-CPI kicks in then more downsides coming because of oil spiked in early March. Nfa.
SPX implied move has widened to ~196 points this week despite the holiday-shortened week. Still plenty of catalysts in play, Middle East headlines remain the primary driver, with jobs data and quarter-end flows adding to the volatility mix.
Always surprised that the Sunday night futures are down so little with no deal in sight. Down .50. I figure the big gunners will come in and take them down to 1.5% before we go to sleep
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