The Osiris Group @OsirisGroup

My friend makes $1.2 million a year as an Anthropic engineer. I asked him how he learned prompting so well. He sent me a video that was never supposed to get out. Their core team's prompting playbook. You won’t find anything better about prompting than this video. I watched it last night. Halfway through, I realized I've been using Claude completely wrong for two years. Watch it, then read the article below.

Raytar @Raytar

7 days ago

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Ha Joon-Chang @the_hindu: "I am actually upset with people like Rajan Raghuram and, these days, Dani Rodrik, who mislead developing countries into believing that there is no future in manufacturing, and you can grow on the basis of services." frontline.thehindu.com/interviews/ind…

Best post on the topic of building an iconic company in the age of AIz

Jaya Gupta @JayaGup10

2 months ago

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Google CEO Sundar Pichai: "The process of creating, developing, etc. is going to be accessible to a much wider spot of humanity than ever before." In a 41-minute interview, he points at who gets to build now, and it's a far bigger group than ever. The door is open to anyone. The ones who walk through and get truly good will run the room. That includes you, if you start now. Watch the interview, then see the skill in the article below. Bookmark it.

Zephyr @Zephyr_hg

2 days ago

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🏭 The Chinese Economic and Industrial Zone (CEIZ) in Anwara, Chattogram, is one of the most important building blocks of Bangladesh-China industrial cooperation. The developer agreement signed in Beijing between Bangladesh Economic Zones Authority (BEZA) and China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) marks a major step from intent to implementation for the project. Located on approximately 800 acres with strategic access to Chattogram Port, CEIZ is designed to attract large-scale Chinese investment into high-value manufacturing, create around 50,000 jobs, and strengthen Bangladesh’s export base. #InvestBangladesh #BangladeshChina #EconomicZones #FDI

My favorite thing @om wrote was actually an interview with Brunello Cucinelli in 2015. And to this day, I think it’s the single best thing you can read on running a business. Better than any book, better than any article. Read it: om.co/2015/04/27/bru…

“If you will make a study of the life and work of Lee Kuan Yew, you will find one of the most interesting and instructive political stories written in the history of mankind. This is better than Athens, this is an unbelievable history. And you will learn a lot that will be useful in life. Study the life and work of Lee Kuan Yew, you are going to be flabbergasted.” - Charlie Munger mastersinvest.com/newblog/2017/6…

Elon Musk @elonmusk

5 days ago

Lee Kuan Yew was a genius

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How a Chinese Megabillionaire Became the Jensen Huang of Batteries Robin Zeng, exacting and detail obsessed, keeps a stranglehold over a market that touches everything from AI data centers to electric cars. Even if Silicon Valley wanted to, it couldn’t live without him. Hint, it was not about subsidies or a government plot to corner global EV battery supply chains.. theinformation.com/articles/chine…

A masterclass on ‘how to speak’ by MIT professor Patrick Winston - 15 key lessons

Joe Hudson is one of the most sought-after executive coaches in tech, working with leaders across OpenAI, Apple, Google, and more. Here's his 5-part framework for how to run a company effectively

Lenny Rachitsky @lennysan

6 days ago

The biggest upheaval to work in our lifetime is here. Joe Hudson (@FU_joehudson) coaches the research team at @OpenAI (along with @sama and leaders across Apple and Google), and from that front-row seat, has noticed the people doing best in these AI-forward environments aren't

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Demis Hassabis, CEO of Google DeepMind: "If I was to talk to a class of undergrads right now, I would be telling them to get really unbelievably proficient with these tools." In a 31-minute Davos panel, the DeepMind CEO gives the one piece of advice he'd hand anyone starting out. Not learn to code. Not get a degree. Get unbelievably good at running these tools. That proficiency is the skill the first solo fortunes are being built on. Watch the panel, then see what that skill looks like in the article below. Save this before it scrolls away.

Zephyr @Zephyr_hg

4 days ago

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The America First Monetary Revolt: Trump’s Vision, Bessent’s Framework. Scott Bessent’s remarks at the New York Economic Club were not merely about “economic statecraft.” They outlined a domestic political economy shift: restore private credit creation, revive the American System, and reduce the Federal Reserve’s outsized role. The throughline is clear, an America First alternative to the post-2008 regime of dominant central banks, constrained commercial banks, and asset-market dependency. The Hamiltonian parallel is unmistakable. Alexander Hamilton did not view credit as neutral plumbing; he saw it as a tool of national development, directing private capital toward industry, production, and state power. Bessent’s framework echoes that tradition: align policy to reward domestic production, rebuild productive lending, and reorient capital toward manufacturing, supply chains, and strategic sectors rather than perpetual financial engineering. It also points toward a more deliberate use of public balance sheets and quasi-public institutions to catalyze investment in reindustrialization, advanced manufacturing, and strategic capacity. This makes his critique of the post-crisis order more consequential than routine debates about rates. Since the global financial crisis, the Fed has evolved from lender of last resort into the de facto manager of growth, market psychology, and risk pricing. At the same time, post-Dodd-Frank regulation placed traditional banks in a structural constraint, while private credit expanded largely as regulatory arbitrage rather than as the natural expression of a healthy financial system. Bessent’s prescription is not the elimination of the Fed, but its downsizing. He has endorsed reducing forward guidance and scrapping the dot plot, a direct challenge to the assumption that markets require constant signaling from central bankers. Yes, Warsh echoes this thesis, and yes it’s not hawkish. His comments on the discount window are especially important. If regulators properly recognized capped, pre-positioned borrowing capacity, banks could reduce sterile liquidity buffers and expand real-economy lending. This is a serious institutional proposal: shift the system away from centralized monetary management and back toward decentralized private credit creation. Notably, Bessent also implies the U.S. should maintain relatively lower rates, reinforcing this credit expansion dynamic. There is also a Jacksonian undertone. Trump’s America First framework, like Andrew Jackson’s campaign against the Second Bank, reflects a deep skepticism of concentrated financial power insulated from democratic accountability. In this view, expanding channels of credit, public and private alike, becomes a way to outflank entrenched financial intermediaries and redirect capital toward national priorities. The target is a broader regime shift: one where credit creation, channeled through both markets and institutions, supports productive capital formation rather than asset inflation, and where growth is driven less by financial engineering than by innovation, industrial capacity, and technological progress. The wager from Trump and Bessent is straightforward, America will be stronger when the Fed does less and the country builds more. Private credit for productive investment. That sounds a lot like Hamilton.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang delivered his address at the opening plenary of the Annual Meeting of the New Champions 2026 in Dalian, #China. The full text is as follows: fmprc.gov.cn/eng/xw/zyxw/20…

Financial Times: "Beijing now sees AI-enabled machines as a way out of the demographic trap. Last year the country installed more industrial robots than the rest of the world put together." This very interesting FT article claims that because its aging population "is China’s biggest economic headwind" (I am a little skeptical about this claim), and that because its declining population makes a bad debt problem even worse (I agree), Beijing wants to increase worker productivity by investing heavily in automation and robot technology. This sets off at least three, perhaps unrelated, points. First and most obviously, mainstream economists have long argued that manufacturing jobs are no better than service jobs, and because the former are declining anyway, we should avoid a manufacturing "fetish". But this might only show just how poorly they understand the economy. It is precisely because manufacturing productivity can rise so rapidly (which also explains most of the decline in manufacturing employment) that countries like the US and the EU should do all they can do encourage domestic manufacturing. Second, China has among the lowest unit labor costs in the world, i.e. wages are lower relative to productivity than they are in most of its trade partners. It also has a very high underemployment as gig work absorbs a huge number of workers who would otherwise be unemployed. With such low labor costs, you would expect Chinese growth to be very labor intensive at this stage. But it is instead very capital-intensive, as demonstrated by the extraordinarily high investment share of GDP, and illustrated by the huge push into the labor-saving automation described in this article. This is pretty strong evidence than in China labor may be cheap, but capital is even cheaper. Third, many analysts worry that automation and robot technology will lead to a rise in unemployment. This is only true, however, if overall demand fails to keep pace with overall supply, in which case production facilities would have to close down and workers fired. But this may be a misplaced concern. In an economy in which investment growth depends on growth in consumption, overall demand will fail to keep pace with overall supply only if household income fails to keep pace with productivity growth. This returns us to China's original problem. while Chinese productivity has been rising, especially until the late 2000s and early 2010s, wages haven't kept pace with productivity growth. So what really matters to overall Chinese and global growth, at least in the medium term, is not the rate at which China automates and expands robot technology, but whether or not wage growth is able to keep pace with the resulting increases in productivity. Given the extent of unemployment and underemployment in the economy, however, this seems pretty unlikely, at least in the next few years, in which case the impact of automation in Chinese manufacturing is likely to be even bigger domestic imbalances and trade surpluses. The key, as I see it, is whether China can continue to subsidize the cost of capital to such an extent that, even with very low labor costs Chinese businesses still prefer capital-intensive growth over labor-intensive growth. This in turn probably depends on how much longer Chinese debt can grow faster than China's real debt-servicing capacity. With debt so high and rising so rapidly, I suspect we will only get a few more years of this at best. ft.com/content/c87318…

Just watched @kaifulee 's interview on the US-China AI landscape. A few takeaways felt especially useful✌️: 1. The US is currently about 15 months ahead of China in frontier AI models. 2. Top US AI companies are like “geniuses trying to win the Nobel Prize,” while Chinese AI companies are more like “a group of smart kids forming a study group.” They still compete, but open source creates more shared learning. 3. China’s AI companies face a real monetization challenge in enterprise software. Many Chinese companies are less used to annual subscriptions or usage-based pricing, and still tend to think of software as project-based work. 4. For the same product, Western, Middle Eastern, and Central Asian companies may be willing to pay around 8x more than Chinese companies. That helps explain why many Chinese AI companies are expanding overseas. 5. China may produce many breakthrough AI consumer apps, because Chinese companies are especially strong at consumer apps, hardware, robotics, embodied AI, and AI-first devices. 6. The US may continue to lead in frontier models, while China may move faster in turning AI into products people actually use. 7. His advice for young people in the age of AI: you don’t necessarily need to become an engineer first. What matters more is accountability, taste, conviction, courage, and foresight. More👇

🚨 SOUTH KOREA JUST PROPOSED TAXING UNREALIZED GAINS. And this is one of the major reasons behind today's massive selloff in the Korean market, now being called BLACK TUESDAY in Korea. At a forum hosted by South Korea's ruling Democratic Party, lawmakers called for comprehensive taxation that would treat unrealized gains on stocks and real estate as taxable income, even before the asset is ever sold. The ruling party has pushed escalating wealth tax measures throughout 2026, including a February forum proposing to lower the real estate capital gains exemption threshold from 1.2 billion won to 800 million won, and an April push to abolish the long term holding tax deduction entirely. Today is the first time this campaign has explicitly extended to taxing unrealized stock gains. Under current law, investors are taxed only when they sell a stock and realize a profit. Under this proposal, investors could owe tax on paper gains they have not sold or collected, simply for holding a stock that went up in value. The Netherlands tried almost this exact policy four months ago. On February 12, 2026, Dutch lawmakers passed a law taxing unrealized gains on stocks, bonds, and crypto at a flat 36% every year, whether or not anything was sold. The backlash was immediate. A petition against it gathered more than 61,000 signatures, and Shopify CEO Tobi Lutke called it "the dumbest thing any government on planet earth is pursuing right now." Just 13 days after the bill passed, the Dutch finance minister announced the government would scrap the unrealized gains portion entirely, admitting the law "cannot pass as is." This lands directly on a South Korean market that just ran up nearly 95% over the past year, built largely on heavy retail buying with borrowed money. A tax on gains that exist only on paper is a direct threat to the exact rally that created that exposure in the first place.

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Bull Theory @BullTheoryio

6 days ago

🚨 THIS IS WHY EVERYTHING IS CRASHING AT THE SAME TIME TODAY. Gold, silver, and tech stocks are all down together right now, which usually signals forced selling across markets. AI SEMICONDUCTOR DELEVERAGING South Korea's Kospi crashed 10% today, triggering a circuit breaker

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Beijing has eliminated over 12,000 university degree programs, dismissing many as relics of a bygone era. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

“That was what I call the biggest scream from the stomach of the market in history.” Jeremy Grantham on the beneath-the-surface signal that has appeared at some of the biggest market tops in history.

China is not only pricing technology. It is pricing political freshness. I recently came across the terms “old tech” and “new tech” in Chinese investment circles. I found that interesting and looked into it. “Old tech” refers to the internet giants of the last cycle: Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, JD, Baidu, NetEase, Xiaomi and their peers. These companies make up bulk of investable indexes. They have users, cash flow, engineers, cloud infrastructure, payment systems, data and distribution. In most markets, that would make them strategic assets. But in China, they also carry political baggage. They are associated with platform monopolies, regulatory crackdowns, gaming restrictions, weak consumption, brutal e-commerce competition, and Xi’s campaign against private platform power. They dominate market capitalization, but no longer dominate the national imagination. “New tech” refers to sectors now favoured by Beijing: AI, large language models, semiconductors, robotics, advanced manufacturing, domestic chips, embodied intelligence and other technologies tied to “new productive forces.” Many of these companies are smaller, less proven, and barely commercial. Yet they command extraordinary valuations because investors are pricing scarcity, policy support, import substitution and national-security relevance. The valuation gap shows the point. Tencent and Alibaba remain huge — roughly HK$4 trillion(USD 600B) and HK$2 trillion in market value — but trade like mature businesses, generally around 10–20x earnings and low-single-digit sales multiples. By contrast, Cambricon, a chip designer, has traded around RMB1 trillion, at more than 100x sales and over 300x earnings. MiniMax, an AI company, was valued at roughly 80x sales at IPO and now trades at more than 600x sales. Zhipu, another AI company, reportedly moved from roughly 66x sales at IPO to over 1,000x sales. For reference, OpenAI is valued at roughly 36x run-rate sales. Anthropic is valued at roughly 20x run-rate sales. This is not a normal growth premium. It is scarcity, policy blessing, import substitution and national-champion imagination being capitalized into market value. That is the real dichotomy in China today: not old versus new, but commercially proven versus politically favoured. China is not the capital market most outsiders think they are investing in. It operates by a different set of rules. Many international investors understand the numbers, but only half-understand the game.

I recently spent a month in Asia, including 10 days in China, where I met with senior policy makers in several countries, and I found that over the past few months, there has been a big shift in the world order. I share my perspective in my latest article.  As always, I welcome your questions and thoughts.

Ray Dalio @RayDalio

2 weeks ago

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