"Crypto" is going to zero. Bitcoin is going to 1M+.
I've been working on Bitcoin since early 2013 when it was ~$50. First it was going to zero because of Silk Road. Then Mt. Gox. Then governments were going to ban it. Then it was slow technology and it was going to be crushed by all of the other coins. Then Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX were sending it to zero. Now there are new narratives. New people that are far too levered, don't understand Bitcoin, but are somehow here to fix it.
Yet, somehow, here we are. A $1T asset.
Bitcoin has been the best thing I could have poured my life into over the last 13+ years. Meanwhile, trust in governments and their ability to stop destroying the people and their purchasing power has never been worse in those same 13+ years.
At the end of the day, my advice to you: the Bitcoin journey is a hero's journey. You kill your ego. You surrender the idea that you're the all-knower of the future, the main character, and important enough to matter to this thing. Bitcoin doesn't care what you think and it doesn't need your permission. You either have the balls to build conviction in it or you don't. You built Barstool, you know this. There is no free lunch. Nobody gets paid to show up when things are easy. Life isn't charity. Participation trophies are worthless. Those that end up getting paid do so because they build something that was simply too hard for others.
Nobody has to convince you of anything. You have to convince you. If you believe in the government and their ability to not print away your purchasing power, sell us your bitcoins. If you don't and you think Bitcoin is an idea worth believing in, have some guts.
Your choice. Bitcoin has been and will continue to be successful either way. It's on a journey of its own and it will be there for you whenever you're ready.
Better just to send money directly to the people from the Treasury.
So long as the increase in goods & services exceeds the increase in the money supply, which will be the case with AI & robots, there will not be inflation.
In fact, my prediction is that we will desperately be fighting deflation!
SpaceX a clôturé son premier jour de cotation à 2 100 milliards de dollars, +19%. Tout le monde regarde le chiffre. Personne ne regarde ce qu'il price réellement.
Laissez-moi vous dire ce que le marché vient d'acheter, et pourquoi je pense que cette boîte vaudra 30 à 50 trillions d'ici 5 ans.
D'abord, le symbole. Cette IPO est un référendum. D'un côté, 20 ans de discours sur la décroissance, la sobriété, la redistribution, la fin de l'histoire gérée par des comités. De l'autre, un homme qui a dit "je vais rendre l'humanité multiplanétaire", que tout le monde a traité de clown, et qui vient de créer la plus grosse entreprise cotée de l'histoire en partant d'un entrepôt à El Segundo. Le marché a voté. Le wokisme avait des départements RH, SpaceX avait des fusées. Les fusées ont gagné.
Ensuite, la mécanique économique, parce que c'est là que tout le monde se trompe. Les analystes valorisent SpaceX comme une entreprise de lancement plus Starlink. C'est comme valoriser Internet en 1995 sur le marché du fax. Starship ne réduit pas le coût du kilo en orbite de 20%, il le divise par 100. Et chaque fois dans l'histoire qu'un coût d'infrastructure est divisé par 100, ce n'est pas le marché existant qui grossit, ce sont des industries entières qui naissent. Le coût du calcul divisé par 100 a donné Internet, le smartphone, l'IA. Le coût de l'orbite divisé par 100 va donner une économie spatiale complète.
Faisons la liste de ce qui devient rentable quand le kilo en orbite coûte le prix d'un billet d'avion. Les data centers orbitaux, avec énergie solaire continue et refroidissement gratuit, au moment exact où l'IA fait exploser la demande énergétique terrestre. La fabrication en microgravité de semi-conducteurs, de fibres optiques, d'organes imprimés impossibles à produire sous gravité. Le tourisme orbital de masse, puis les hôtels lunaires, qui passeront du fantasme au business plan exactement comme la croisière de luxe au 20ème siècle. Le transport point à point terrestre, Paris-Tokyo en 40 minutes. L'industrie minière des astéroïdes, dont un seul corps de classe M contient plus de métaux que tout ce que l'humanité a extrait depuis le néolithique. Et Mars en ligne de mire, pas comme destination touristique, mais comme le plus grand projet d'infrastructure jamais entrepris, avec tout ce que ça implique de demande en énergie, matériaux, robotique, IA.
SpaceX ne participera pas à ces marchés. SpaceX possède le péage d'entrée de tous ces marchés. C'est AWS, mais pour la civilisation. Apple vaut 3 500 milliards en vendant des rectangles de verre sur une seule planète. Le premier monopole d'accès à une frontière infinie à 30 ou 50 trillions dans 5 ans, ce n'est pas de l'exubérance, c'est une simple règle de trois sur l'expansion du marché adressable.
Et maintenant, la partie que je préfère. Ce futur n'a pas besoin de bureaucrates. Il n'y a pas de comité consultatif en orbite. Pas de commission Théodule sur Mars. Chaque dollar de cette nouvelle économie sera créé par des ingénieurs, des techniciens, des soudeurs, des pilotes, des entrepreneurs. Les diplômés en gestion de la norme vont devoir apprendre un métier utile, et franchement, c'est une excellente nouvelle pour eux aussi : construire est infiniment plus fun que contrôler.
Parce que c'est ça, le vrai signal d'aujourd'hui. Pendant 50 ans on nous a vendu un futur rétréci : moins d'énergie, moins d'enfants, moins d'ambition, gérer le déclin proprement. Et là, d'un coup, le plus gros actif financier du monde est un pari sur l'abondance, l'expansion et l'aventure. Le pessimisme vient de passer en position vendeuse sur lui-même.
Le futur sera méga fun. Il y aura des hôtels avec vue sur la Terre, des honeymoons en orbite, des gamins qui diront "papa, c'était comment avant les fusées réutilisables" comme on dit "c'était comment avant Internet". Et quelque part dans les années 2030, un humain marchera sur Mars en livestream devant 5 milliards de personnes, et ce jour-là plus personne ne se souviendra du nom d'un seul de ses détracteurs.
Achetez de l'optimisme. C'est encore sous-valorisé.
We are at **0.0115%** of our mission before Type I Civilization is completed.
On an astronomical scale, the bar chart barely registers against the Stone Age.
The mission continues.
[░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░]
Quick reminder: the $STRC amendment doesn't change your dividend rate, annual dividend, voting rights, or par value. It simply pays you more often. Vote now.
Novice and aspiring market speculators think the magic is found in trade identification.
The "what" and "when" components of trading -- while necessary -- represent only about 5% of a trader's "edge."
Yet aspiring traders spend 80% of their time, energy, hopes and fears on trade identification and the next trade.
The real landmine in trading is self-sabotage. Dealing with human emotions is the battle line that matters.
You want to know yourself, I mean really know yourself -- the good, the bad and the ugly?
Become a trader.
This is why all the trading services who talk about their last trade (made 250% on XYZ) is such an absolute joke.
Trading services who talk about their winners are trading services you must avoid at all costs.
The real enemy in trading is self.
You want to know your biggest enemy to trading success? Well, just look in a mirror. It is you, not what you know or don't know, that keeps you from gaining traction in trading.
After three to five years of experience a person should know what they need to do to be profitable. The challenge is actually doing what you know you must do.
The task is overcoming self.
Déjà vu time for the Yen???
On Sept 22, 1985 (weekend) the global Central Bankers intervened in FX markets via Plaza Accord to dampen $USD strength
On Sept 20 Jen futures closed at $.0042
The Japanese Central Bank was most aggressive selling billions of dollars
Shorts were trapped
This old goat was among the shorts
Yen put in series of gaps in subsequent days, gaining 20% in two weeks
Can this happen again? $USDJPY
Something I cannot quite understand
Why people take losing trades personally
The markets don't know you. They have no idea who you are. They could care less what your hopes, fears and aspirations are. The markets are totally cold. Unfeeling
So why take a losing trade personally
Probably because you have misplaced assumptions and expectations. You assume the market cares about you enough to offer a profit. Your expectations are falsely placed
When I enter a trade I expect it to be a loser. I assume it will be a loser. This way I take risk management seriously
I know my trading stats. Over 200 trades I can come within a 10% on my estimate of ROR, win rate, PF, etc
But on any given trade or series of trades I do not have a clue. I may think I know where a market is going, but in reality I have no idea
So why would I take a loss personally. A trade is nothing more than a datum point in a series of data points subject to random probability theory. A loss is not a personal indictment
I wrote a new blog post for the first time in a while.
👉 payhip.com/YumiSakura/blo…
It is about the path traders need to follow if they truly want to succeed.
"The cost of a thing is the amount of life which is required to be exchanged for it."
Most people measure Bitcoin in dollars. But the real question is: how much of your life are you trading to stay in a system that inflates away your time?
Sovereignty has a price. So does staying put.
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