ChrisJ Debates @PolDiscuss

Dry Bulk also being cut down by around 3%. $NMM $SBLK $BDRY $HSHP $CMBT $GNK $PANL $SB $SHIP

According to CNN, the U.S. military nearly carried out an armed boarding of a Chinese cargo ship in the Middle East earlier this year because of an AI hallucination. During the height of the Iran conflict, an intelligence analyst used an AI chatbot to examine data about the ship's cargo manifest. Drawing on both classified and open-source intelligence, the chatbot falsely concluded that the vessel was carrying nuclear weapons components. The analyst failed to catch the error, used AI again to format the finding into an official report, and sent it up the chain of command. Commanders treated the report as accurate: aircraft were launched and boarding teams prepared for an interdiction that would likely have caused a serious diplomatic incident with China. Before any action at sea, officials reviewing the report discovered that its content had been AI-generated and that the ship's cargo had been misidentified, so the operation was called off and the vessel continued its commercial voyage. CNN's sources said similar errors have happened before and warned that the military still has no standardized, joint guidelines for catching AI mistakes in target identification and selection, one of its most consequential processes. The episode underlines a broader point: even advanced AI systems make errors, so responsibility for their output must remain with the humans who use it.

From $50/t to $200+/t in months. Juaymah–Ningbo VLCC freight has gone vertical, meaning $200+ in freight for every tonne of crude moved. Meanwhile, Asia’s high-risk crude supplies have collapsed as mainstream barrels recover.

$CMBT is rumored to be selling 4 VLCC newbuildings for $1B ($250M per ship). That’s $50M above the last observed deal at ~$200M. If true, it would imply a ~25% jump in VLCC values.

Europe continues to idle chemical plants, with Ineos to shut 3 plants in England

Middle East war has cost marine insurers ~$2BN. Underwriting losses were reportedly 20× underwriting earnings.

Brent crude falls back below $100 per barrel as markets increasingly view the Saudi East-West pipeline outage as less disruptive than initially feared.

Fuel margins stabilise as funds realise profits Refined fuel markets experienced some profit taking last week after margins swelled to a near-record high amid intensifying attacks on shipping and pipelines in the Middle East and continued drone attacks on refineries across Russia. Hedge funds and other money managers have been much more bullish about the outlook for fuels such as diesel and gasoline than for crude as the conflicts have disrupted the production and distribution of refinery products. The benchmark 3-2-1 crack spread for transforming three barrels of U.S. crude into two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of diesel has traded between $60 and $70 per barrel almost continuously since late July ... This is a short extract from my newsletter emailed to clients earlier today. If you would like to read my newsletters in full, three times a week, you can subscribe via my website newsletter.jkempenergy.com/gUJLdm

This week's Cashless newsletter has three articles pulling the stablecoin dominance thesis apart. The cracks are structural. Stablecoins can't legally settle tokenized assets. 99.5% of their market cap is dollar-denominated while only 50% of global trade invoices in dollars. And the WTO says moving money fast isn't trade finance. No letters of credit, no guarantees, no risk mitigation. Settlement, currency, trade finance. Three pillars, three problems. JPMorgan, Citi, and Wells Fargo are already building the replacement with tokenized deposits launching in 2027. Everyone assumed stablecoins would become financial infrastructure. What if they're just the prototype? This week's topics: -The Battle for Tokenization's Soul Isn't About the Assets, but How You Pay for Them -Stablecoins' 99% Problem: The US Dollar -WTO: Stablecoins May Speed Payments but Not Trade Finance -Will AI Exterminate Humankind? That's the Wrong Question. -Prediction Markets Are Not the "Wisdom of the Crowd" if Just 3% Set the Price -Dive into the Knowledge Vaults — Start with two free reads -Chart and Art of the Day — Superapps Help China Take the Lead Over the US in AI Adoption buff.ly/RBYu9hz #FinTech #tech #FinServ #AI @BetaMoroney @efipm @BrettKing @spirosmargaris @jasuja @enricomolinari @mikeflache #CBDC #FinTech #FinServ @efipm @Kiffmeister @sonjadav @Jonas__Gross @conrad_kraft @JoshuaLipsky

Government Programs Often Misread How Commercial Supply Chains Actually Work ow.ly/3KgJ30sZ4ox

Some Thoughts on Oil Tankers: While rates are already high, I think they can go much higher. The situation has also become more complicated, with the Houthis back in the game and disrupting shipping through the Red Sea.

Jérémie Boyer @jeremie0117

5 days ago

No research firm seems willing to make a real bullish call on tankers, likely because they are afraid of being wrong. We aren’t. @AurelionRsch is long both oil and product tankers, and we think there is still substantial upside ahead. read.aurelionresearch.com/p/shipping-tan…

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In communities where male honour depends on female seclusion, female employment tends to remain low. But in Denmark, women from the Middle East, North Africa, Pakistan & Turkey are registering rising employment! This is tremendous, both for women’s economic inclusion & their family’s upward mobility. More research is needed to understand what European countries can do to support migrant women’s economic inclusion & prosperity. Bravo to @jburnmurdoch & @Usama_Polani @SIEPR

#Cheniere’s Corpus Christi #LNG #terminal has become the second-largest U.S. LNG facility following completion of Stage 3, bringing total nominal capacity to 3.1 Bcf/d and peak capacity to 3.9 Bcf/d. Read More: pgjonline.com/news/2026/sept…

Sourcing enough electricity for data centres Global electricity consumption by data centres nearly doubled in five years between 2020 and 2025, and is expected to almost double again by 2030, which will require large amounts of additional generation. Data centres accounted for just 1.5% of global electricity consumption in 2025 and the share is forecast to remain well below 5% through 2030 under all scenarios modelled by the International Energy Agency (IEA). But data centres are strongly clustered in a small number of countries, and within them a small number of regions, a pattern that is expected to persist in the medium term. Most of the forecast growth in data centres over the next five years is set to occur within existing clusters, which will intensify pressure on electricity networks. The IEA estimates more than half of the new data centres under construction or already announced but not yet at the building stage are located within existing clusters. Data centres are imposing only a modest additional load on electricity system at global scale but the impact is much more concentrated and severe in local areas ... This is a short extract from my newsletter emailed to clients earlier today. If you would like to read my newsletters in full, three times a week, you can become a subscriber via my website newsletter.jkempenergy.com/gUJLdm

Things are getting really tight in the Atlantic Basin: "Johan Sverdrup, one of the most suitable grades to replace Middle East crude, was offered at a record of $33-$35/bbl above Dated Brent."

Adi Imsirovic @AdiSurreyEnergy

4 days ago

Bloomberg Vitol bought two WTI Midland cargoes in the Platts window. The level of offers for some N. Sea grades is skyrocketing as the shutdown of a key Saudi pipeline roils the physical market. PLATTS: WTI Midland, CIF: Vitol bought Oct. 11-15 from Glencore at Dated +$18.30/bbl,

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$ZIM Freight rates are ripping toward COVID-era records. Far East →USEC +2.8% this week to $11,259/FEU, just 11% off the all-time high, +325% since the pre-Hormuz crisis. Xeneta says surpassing the pandemic peak can't be ruled out! One more push coming before Golden Week🔥🔥🔥

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We are pleased to partner with DMU on our MSc in Maritime Affairs, specializing in Maritime Safety & Environmental Management. The programme delivers specialized postgraduate education responding to the needs of the maritime sector in China.

International Maritime Organization @IMOHQ

6 days ago

From classroom to deck - watch to see how the next generation of maritime leaders are learning to put IMO policy to practice and power maritime excellence at Dalian Maritime University, China. #MaritimePolicyToPractice #WorldMaritimeDay

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CNBC asking guest, "do you think the fed will raise rates again" guest, "I do..." horrible. Correct way to ask question, "What is driving the Fed raising rates?" guest, "it's the rise in the 2yr yield, driven off of higher Energy prices (inflation)" "so, the Fed is just following 2yr and inflation.... that means the Fed will just follow the market?" guest, "yes, the fed won't raise again if Energy prices drop decently, and they probably will if Crude stays > $100" @CNBC @BeckyQuick

VLGCs: $180K/DAY. BW LPG CEO says US→Asia volumes are now the key driver of the VLGC market, with exports up ~20% YoY. Rates have surged from ~$75K/day pre-war to ~$180K/day. Even if Middle East flows normalize, US LPG still needs Asia keeping tonne-miles elevated.

$ZIM Shanghai-NY up 7% WoW to $10,394...through the 2024 high and STILL climbing. 9 blank sailings announced for next week, up from 8, and Drewry itself expects rates higher again pre-Golden Week