TwoHedge @TwoHedge

The gas is half full 😇

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57 years ago

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⚠️🇩🇪Germany's gas storage is at 49.68% in mid-August. The 5 year average for this date is 74.13%. In 2022, at the height of the last crisis, Germany was at 91.03%. Germany burns more gas than any country in Europe. Half full, heading into the winter that needs it most. themerchantsnews.substack.com/p/will-europe-…

🚨JP MORGAN WARNS OF MASSIVE FOOD SUPPLY CRISIS IN 2027 ⚠️JP Morgan's report warns shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with a possible historic El Nino event may trigger a GLOBAL FOOD SHORTAGE & UNPRECIDENTED FOOD INFLATION next year. ⚡️JPM's Senior Global Economist Nora Szentivanyi Says ‘Five Ws’ Are Driving Food Inflation Risk: WAR, WEATHER, WAREHOUSING, WATER, & WASTE

You know there is something wrong when even German 🇩🇪 bund yields are also breaking out.

BREAKING: US diesel crack, the gap between diesel and crude, has just hit a record $102.20 for the first time in history. Food is about to get a lot more expensive. Agriculture runs on diesel equipment and shipping, heating oil is next ahead of winter, and everything moved by truck or ship will drive inflation higher. The industrial economy either grinds to a halt, or consumers are about to be hit with the biggest energy pass-through in history as refining costs transmit downstream into higher prices for businesses and consumers.

🇺🇸$40 Trillion in debt incoming. The first trillion took 192 years. The last one took five months.

JUST IN 🚨: Strategic Petroleum Reserve plunges to lowest level since 1982 📉 📉

The yield on the 30-year Treasury is above 5.3% for the first time since April 2007. At the time the U.S. national debt was still under $8.8 trillion. Now it's over $39.9 trillion, over 4.5x as large. Plus, in 2007 bond yields were still trending down. Now they are trending up.

Good Morning from Germany, where the country risks running short of gas this winter if storage tanks aren’t filled much faster. They are just 49.7% full, the lowest ever for this time of year and ~17ppts below 2025. At the current injection pace, Germany could enter the heating season near 60%. Meanwhile, European gas trades above €62/MWh. LNG terminals reduce the risk but leave little buffer for a cold winter or supply disruption. Germany’s energy insurance is getting expensive again.

A Global Food Supply Crisis could begin next year due to fertilizer shortages, warns JP Morgan 🚨🚨

So here's @robin_j_brooks arguing that Germany should leave the euro, based on facts, not frustration. Frustration, however, is exactly what is driving the growing calls within the Eurozone, especially in the less indebted countries, to leave the euro. I'm afraid today's value of the euro does not properly reflect the risk of a break-up.

Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks

2 days ago

It was a mistake for Germany to enter into the Euro with a bunch of high-debt countries who clamor for solidarity whenever it suits them but - when Ukraine is invaded - they show zero solidarity for others. Don't blunder on in a broken currency. Leave... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/why-germany-…

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Gold has overtaken U.S. Treasuries as the World's Top Reserve Asset 🤯👀

THE RALLY IN US STOCKS IS BEING DRIVEN BY BORROWED MONEY More than 4 million SPX call options traded on Tuesday, an all time high, beating the May record by 10%. The same week, the S&P crossed 7,700 for the first time and the VIX fell to its lowest level since January. But this is not bullish at all. When someone buys a call, a dealer sells it. That dealer is now short the market and has to buy S&P futures to stay neutral. So the index goes up because dealers are hedging, not because investors are buying stocks. More calls get bought, more hedging happens, the index goes higher. The move keeps feeding itself. The falling VIX adds to it. Funds that size positions by volatility automatically buy more when volatility drops, whatever the price. Korea just showed how this ends.

“I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.” - President Trump, November 2024 "During every single day of the administration, I will, very simply, put America first." - President Trump, January 2025 "Pretty soon, I'll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States." - President Trump, August 2026

Jane Street suffered losses of $15 Billion following Leopold's leverage blowout 🚨 🚨

Yardeni says gold should be bouncing back to $5000 by the end of the year and then soar to $7000 next year.

The US National Debt has increased by over $550 billion since July 1st. The Federal Government continues to borrow from our future to spend money like drunken sailors today. Everything they said about "balancing the budget" was a lie.

Charlie Bilello @charliebilello

6 days ago

July: The Federal Government took in $334 billion and spent $766 billion. That's a $432 billion deficit in just one month. Don't try this at home.

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The gaslighting now is epic.

Almost there ... $40 trillion 42% of all income taxes collected goes to paying interest on the US National Debt US govt debt growing at $2.1 trillion per year. Most and more of the US govt budget is being swallowed by interest payments.

THE 15-YEAR SILVER TRAP: NEW SUPPLY IS IMPOSSIBLE UNTIL 2040 Austrian Silver expert E. Gratz: Wall Street still believes higher silver prices will magically unlock more metal tomorrow. That belief is pure fantasy. From the first discovery of a silver vein to the first finished ounce takes on average fifteen years. The physical deficit we face right now was locked in long before solar and AI demand exploded. Anyone waiting for new mines is waiting until 2040. THE CORE THESIS: THE MARKET CANNOT REACT ➡️ Today’s silver supply was planned fifteen years ago. ➡️ Exploding demand from solar and AI hits a market that has zero short-term flexibility. ➡️ The physical deficit is already set in stone. THE FATAL ILLUSION ➡️ Wall Street thinks a rising price simply pulls more silver out of the ground. ➡️ In physical reality that is completely impossible. ➡️ Mines do not appear because the chart looks good. THE BRUTAL TIMELINE ➡️ Average time from discovery to first production sits at fifteen years. ➡️ Mines that started between 2020 and 2023 needed 17.9 years according to S&P Global. ➡️ Hope for meaningful new supply before 2040 is delusion. WHO ACTUALLY HUNTS FOR SILVER ➡️ Not the big corporations. ➡️ Tiny junior explorers take the extreme risk, raise speculative capital, and drill in the middle of nowhere. ➡️ Nine out of ten projects never become economic mines. ➡️ Only one in a thousand exploration projects ever turns into a real producing mine. THE PERMITTING AND FINANCING WALL ➡️ After discovery come years of feasibility studies, environmental reviews, water rights, and negotiations with local communities. ➡️ ESG rules and bureaucracy routinely stretch the timeline into year eight through fourteen. ➡️ Hundreds of millions are spent on lawyers and permits long before the first shovel hits dirt. ➡️ Many explorers simply go bankrupt on the way. THE BOTTOM LINE The silver market is trapped in a multi-decade structural lag. Demand is exploding while new supply remains locked away for another fifteen years or more. Only physical silver you already hold protects real wealth. HT: YouTube Ernst Gratz #SilverTrap #15YearDelay #PhysicalSilver #SilverDeficit #MiningReality #SolarSilver #AISilver