argielytics @auctionlytics

1/5 For almost two years, the Fed has been cutting or holding rates steady, and bond yields have trended higher. The bond market has been rejecting the Fed's cutting policy for two years. Once the Fed starts hiking, yields can peak. 🧵

Jim Bianco @biancoresearch

a day ago

As I write, 30-year yields are 5.28%, a new 19-year high … “Bond Traders can stop panicking when the Fed starts panicking.” The bond market is signaling concern about inflation and do nothing about it will only drive bond yields higher.

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🦔Apollo's chief economist Torsten Slok put hard numbers on something a lot of people have been circling for a while. AI's money runs backward, chipmakers booking huge profits while the model makers bleed, and the profits come from investors rather than customers. Chipmakers earn a 41% profit margin. The model makers like OpenAI and Anthropic run a negative 59% operating margin. His conclusion is that the 41% depends on the negative 59% staying financeable. My Take Slok pulled these figures from Pitchbook and Bloomberg, and they match what plenty of people have argued for months. Nvidia's cash is solid, but it comes from OpenAI and Anthropic spending money they raised, not money customers paid them. Take the fundraising away and the chip profits have nothing underneath them. The most profitable layer of this industry depends on the least profitable one raising money it does not earn. That leaves one question. Can AI start paying off for the companies using it before the money funding all of this runs out? I don't know, and I don't think anyone does yet. For now the margins at the top hold, and the demand under them is borrowed. I wouldn't let the chip profits convince me the boom has proved itself. Hedgie🤗

Private Equity Is Stuck With 33,575 Unsold Businesses nytimes.com/2026/08/10/bus…

Nothing to see here, folks, move along...

Look at how Bolivia has both extremes!

BowTiedMara @BowTiedMara

2 days ago

Minimum temperature of the coldest month (WorldClim BIO6). South America is often considered a tropical continent, but its winter climates are quite varied. The Amazon remains warm year-round, while the Andes, southern Chile, and Patagonia experience much colder winters due to

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My favorite line from Atomic Habits has been living in my head rent-free: “It doesn’t make sense to continue wanting something if you’re not willing to do what it takes to get it. If you don’t want to live the lifestyle, then release yourself from the desire. To crave the result but not the process is to guarantee disappointment.”

One of the biggest economic scams is convincing people they're richer because their house is worth more. Great. Your $200,000 house is now worth $400,000. Unfortunately, the house you'd like to move into went from $300,000 to $600,000. Your property taxes went up. Your insurance went up. The interest rate went up. And your kid can't afford a starter home anywhere near you. Unless you're planning to sell your house and live in the woods, that extra $200,000 isn't changing your life. Congratulations on all your wealth.

The curse of discipline is that every day looks the same. The curse of indiscipline is that every year does.

All 75 economists in a recent Bloomberg survey expected the US economy to add jobs in July. It fell 23k. "Every company that has an economist working for it has one employee too many." Warren Buffett

Quit your job. Start Trading Take the risk. It's how I went from making $10,000 a month to $1,300

"Es tan pobre que solo tiene plata" de un amigazo.

I find that my life improves a lot when I shrink the time horizon. Instead of worrying about long-term goals, I just focus on the next hour. Do one thing that moves me forward. One closed loop. One workout. One hard conversation. One whatever. Thinking about how to build a successful life is daunting. How can you have a successful day? How can you win this hour? Do that. Then do it again. Momentum is a byproduct of movement.

Went to the Comedy Cellar last night A young guy was sitting in the front row w/his girlfriend and one of the comics did the whole: Where are you from? What do you do? He said “I work for Nvidia” The comic said “what is that TVs?” The AI boom might have a long way to go

No llevamos ni cuatro días de competición en Montreal y vaya la que se ha liado. Han perdido en el primer día los siguientes cabezas de serie: Zverev Auger-Aliassime (retirado) Medvedev Cobolli Fritz Rublev Cerúndolo Vacherot Khachanov Humbert Tabilo Si a eso le sumas que no están Alcaraz, Sinner ni Djokovic, anda que debe estar contento el director del torneo…

Compensation in US family offices > median compensation in all family offices > senior roles in $1bn+ US family offices

Just three companies, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta, have already sold nearly $170 billion of investment-grade bonds so far in 2026, dwarfing last year's total tech issuance: Bloomberg. And they keep issuing, with Alphabet today looking to sell an additional $25 billion of bonds.

Not surprising in the least. From Bloomberg- One-quarter of men aged 18-29 said they trade stocks daily, and almost two-thirds of them (64%) report feeling like failures, according to a study of 2,000 men published Wednesday by the Institute for Family Studies, a pro-marriage think tank. The findings were strikingly similar to outcomes among men who gamble: Of the 23% of young men who said they gambled daily, including on sports and events, 66% reported similar angst, according to survey, which asked the young men a variety of questions about their personal behaviors and outlooks. Daily fantasy sports and pornography use were similarly correlated to feelings of failure, the survey found

If you hit $35k in your investment account by age 30 and never invest another dollar, you'll still end up with ~$1 million by 65 — just from compound interest. That’s the power of starting early.

Many of the loser children of my wealthy friends who see no way to emulate the success of their parents, have gravitated toward Mamdani-ism and found community and a sense of purpose by rejecting capitalism as a way to cope with their own failure. Please note they have nor however rejected their trust funds or living subsidies while pursuing their “passions” in NGOs, dabbling in the arts or trying to invest their parents money in “VC”.

Jesse Arm @Jesse_Leg

a week ago

The DSA has become more than a political organization—it functions as a community-building institution that gives lonely, nonreligious downwardly mobile young people from elite backgrounds purpose, identity, friendships, and practical political training. That social

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The table below shows how many days before the recession starts the stock market peaks. All the numbers are negative, meaning the stock market peaks before the recession starts. In July 1990, the recession started 11 days later when Iraq invaded Kuwait. The price of oil went up 400%. In 2020, the recession started 17 days later when the global economy was shut down because of a pandemic. --- So unless a Global crisis forms in the next couple of days, the stock market is telling us we are at a minimum several months away from a recession, if even then.

Jim Bianco @biancoresearch

a week ago

The $SPX is at a new all-time high. In the last 100 years, there's never been a recession in the month that the $SPX is at a new all-time high. This signals the economy is fine, meaning inflation and higher rates should be the concern.

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