traderjay @itisjsla

How to fix your trading psychology: Never trade so large that a loss will negatively impact your psychology.

Major cheat code for life: Become low maintenance. Don’t create unnecessary drama. Don’t make people guess. Don’t need constant reassurance. Be clear, kind, confident, and steady. The people who make life easier for others become the people everyone wants around.

BREAKING: Trump: Short sellers are getting wiped out. "Those poor bastards. I never liked short guys because they're betting against the country."

A premarket gap-up is fully capable of fading. Always seek reason to avoid the trade. Only trade the most optimal setup, at the most optimal condition

Wins and Losses -- and what they mean to me and how I perceive them. Wins and losses within trading is nothing more than an outcome. They are two sides of the same coin. It is not important what the outcome is (do not confuse a 'nice to have' vs. 'important to have'), but rather what one does with the information the outcome presents. When I have an outcome that results in a positive PnL, I first validate whether or not I executed properly against my thesis. There are days when I'm green, however, upon further investigation, it is blatantly obvious that I got bailed. Something outside of my skill affected the outcome. When that occurs, I get zero value out of the trade. While on paper, it looks great, in the realm of improving me as a trader, it's null. This scenario requires adjustment(s). Questions that need answering --> Why did I take this trade? Why did I enter/exit where I did? What specifically matched my criteria to be in the trade vs. any other opportunity out there? What did I not see that I should have to ensure I lessen the occurrence of these scenarios? When investigating the positive PnL outcome, and it is clear that it was due to the way I executed, not only the entry but also the exit, the risk, the size, the time, the scale, etc --> I take note of that. It goes into the realm of --> I need to do more of 'this'. This is what moves the needle --> the action(s), not the result. Alternatively, the process described above repeats when I am presented with an outcome that results in a negative PnL. Asking of the 'whys'. If then it is determined that the result was negative, however, I have done everything within my ability to follow my thesis and execute against it (the same process that is keeping me consistently profitable) --> that goes in the bucket of a "good trade". I need to do more of 'this'. Sure, it sucks it was a loss, yes I may not be happy about it, but it does not reflect my ability as a [consistent] trader. Instead, it is a reflection of my discipline. These days, win or lose, it generally takes me minutes to understand why. When I have a fat red day, I don't spend two weeks wondering why -- I already know. And yes, it is the usual suspects --> I broke a rule, got stubborn, did not respect the market/chart/tape, did not execute against my thesis, etc. And to sum it up --> I strayed outside of what works for me and keeps me consistent. Generally, there are only two reasons for a red day: I broke something, or the market changed. One I have control over and it needs constant regulation, the other is outside of my control. When you change the way you look at things, the things you look at change. The outcome is a perception. It can hurt you or it can help you. You have absolutely no [direct] control of the right side of the equal sign in the equation --> Market x You = Outcome. You need to look at the left side. You cannot change the market itself, not possible, so your only true option for obtaining a different outcome is to look within 'You' and change something there (process, emotion, discipline, etc.) That will help you move the needle. Lastly, the outcome itself (green or red) carries emotions. Do not ignore them. Experience them. Good, bad, or indifferent, you must give them the time of day (ideally not during market hours 😜); however, do not let them lead the way.

🇺🇸 BREAKING: The largest fireworks show in the history of the WORLD has just kicked off in Washington, DC 850,000 MUNITIONS — last year's was 20,000 Trump PROMISED to make it happen, and he MADE IT HAPPEN! 🔥

🚨Anthropic just showed a 24-minute workshop on how to actually do prompts for Claude. Taught by the people who built it. Free. No registration. No paywall. I've seen $300 courses that don't cover what they teach in the first 8 minutes. Watch it and bookmark it now!

What happens when you die: They divide up your shit. They summarize your life in 500-1000 words. People who knew you less say sorry to people who knew you more. Everyone eats, drives home, and wakes up the next day and goes to work. Whatever you’re worried about won’t be in those 500 words. You can dare greatly or not at all, but you’re gonna die either way. Might as well squeeze every motherfucking drop out.

Once you commit to excellence and being in tune with the market, there’s really no going back. You’re either committed to the work or you’re not. Not everyone has to be, that’s totally fine. But if you are, the path usually runs through the really mind numbingly hard stuff. Failures. Bad reads. Poor entries. Botched exits. Oversizing. Undersizing. Thinking you understood the market, only to realize the market is always dynamic. Then, slowly, you iterate. You add skills one by one. You stop getting hurried by the market. You stop getting giddy. You stay level headed. The game starts to slow down. You learn when to press, when to sit, when to cut, and when to do absolutely nothing. You think you got there, only to realize the market is always smarter than you. So you go back and iterate. You get better again. Brick by brick, you keep building. Cause there is no other way. The real goal is to survive long enough, adapt fast enough, and stay honest enough on your way to becoming a true market participant who is all about process over outcomes. Someone who can survive the realities of the market regardless of the direction. And once you see the market that way, kudos… there is literally no going back.

Fixed targets do not work; some don't make much in 3 to 5 days, some make multiples, so the philosophy should be to take what the market gives you rather than forcing a target. The market is not our mistress that guarantees three blow jobs a night. 🙃😁😀

CavemanResearch @CavemanResearch

6 days ago

@PradeepBonde Have you considered fixed targets on swing trades, something like 1:3 ? I have not, but I am looking at my past trades now.

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Nobody talks about how much of trading is just sitting there convincing yourself not to do something stupid.

13 Qullamaggie quotes every trader needs to live by: 1. "If you master this setup you will never have to work another day in your life."

Markets rarely fall in calm, orderly ways. As the old Wall Street adage goes, they take the stairs up and the elevator down. During downside moves, technical and behavioral forces can trigger positive feedback loops that amplify market sell-offs. ⚙️ Volatility-targeting funds deleverage. 🛡️ Hedgers rush to buy protection. 📉 Dealers adjust their hedges. 💸 Panicked investors rush to hit the bid. Can these episodes of panic become systematic trading opportunities? Today we're publishing an article we've been working on for weeks: a fully systematic strategy that uses information embedded in the #VIX Index to identify short-term mean-reversion opportunities in #SPY. The idea builds on our broader research into implied volatility, including our award-winning paper with @BearBullTraders. Rather than trading volatility itself, however, this framework uses the VIX as a behavioral stress signal to identify periods when equity prices may have temporarily overreacted. From January 2007 through June 2026, the strategy generated a 10.8% annualized return (net of transaction costs) while being invested on only 14% of trading days. In the article we explain: 1️⃣ How the volatility-burst signal is constructed. 2️⃣ Why many VIX backtests have a look-ahead bias. 3️⃣ A practical leverage framework with capped risk. 4️⃣ Complete historical and trade-level results. 5️⃣ Ideas for extending the methodology We hope you enjoy it. 🔗 Link in the first comment. #SystematicTrading #QuantitativeFinance #AlgorithmicTrading #Trading #Investing #SPY #VIX #Volatility #MeanReversion

Appreciate this, @TheShortBear Lukas. There are definitely traders who can navigate this market environment better than I can. There's always something to learn from those who excel in different market dynamics. We are all a student of the market, and lifelong learning is essential in this endeavor. I really enjoyed the compiled substack discussion in your Market Wizards Q&A. Strategies should adapt to changing markets, but core principles shouldn't. @PradeepBonde has also been sharing great insights over the past 2 weeks, and one message stands out above all: build a solid framework before anything else. It is the same message in your graphical display you've shared. theshortbear.substack.com/p/market-wizar…

THE SHORT BEAR @TheShortBear

6 days ago

One of the best to do it right now is @jfsrev Love your work!

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Stop buying dumb stuff to make people you don't even like think you're doing well. Stop buying dumb shit, stop worrying about other people's opinions.

How to win at trading: Forget PNL. Fix one mistake from the prior day. Repeat.

JUST IN: Nearly 1 in 2 home sellers are cutting deals to attract buyers

Your job as a trader is not to make money on every trade. Your job is to make good decisions over and over again until the money becomes a byproduct. A good decision is entering only when your setup is there. A good decision is knowing where you’re wrong before you enter. A good decision is cutting the trade when that level breaks, even when your ego wants to “give it more room.” A good decision is not averaging down on a loser just because you don’t want to accept the loss. A good decision is keeping the loss small enough that you can still think clearly on the next trade. Because one small loss won’t ruin you. But one emotional decision can undo weeks of discipline. The goal isn’t to avoid losses. The goal is to make sure your losses come from the plan, not from panic, hope, or ego.

Start with one setup, master it then add others. Most profitable traders have multiple setups they trade based on market conditions.

Mad Equities @MadEquities

a week ago

@PradeepBonde Do we try to master all at once or which one do we try first and then slowly progress? I think some works better at trending market and some better at choppy ones. How do you know it is time to stop and thinking about focusing which set ups more

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The elements of good trading are: (1) cutting losses, (2) cutting losses, and (3) cutting losses. If you can follow these three rules, you may have a chance. - Ed Seykota