seenonchain @seenonchain

Week in Review - 19 Jul 26 Tumultuous OPEX week as we saw violent unwinds in global markets. To briefly summarise, momentum and memory stocks took a beating this week - led by $SKHY that pummelled the KOSPI. $SNDK also is back near the lows set on the first retrace in mid May. The technical damage done to the charts can be best summarised by their effects on market participants. Pod funds which have turned into momo strategies were either stopped out or derisked. Korean retail were heavily purged. Noticeably, towards the end of the week, the mags were also hit by the semis unwind. A sign of the unraveling dynamic of the mags and semis inverse correlation. This noticeably has increased the correlation between single stocks and could be a force in amplifying moves in the index going forward. Previously over the last 2 weeks, the inverse correlation between these giant weights in the index has led to SPX going no where despite the carnage done in markets. Participants long semis and short indexes faced little relief. Into the mag7s reporting, semis will be on the lookout for capex cadence judgement. On fundamentals, the release of K3 by Moonshot has sparked debate about the implications on compute demand. Gavin Baker's stance is that in either direction, this is positive for compute demand. IMO, the only negative implications might be for the US frontier labs. However, this could lead to a sputnik moment, with the USG backstopping the labs to accelerate their progress. K3 is also much more token hungry than GPT, which leads to a similar cost per task. Also K3 has an inability right now to cope with demand - inference demand as i said is going to take over training demand. My neocloud thesis - "neocloud summer" is basically on increasing compute demand. Given that the neo valuation is the summation of all the compute deals - current environment allows for deals with 1-3 year payback periods. With the NVDA credit support and customer prepayment model - this can create scenarios where we have a ridiculous IRR... On things i am on the watch for - the escalation in Iran. This has spilled over beyond just love taps that we have in the brief detente. Like i mentioned last week, cheap C/S can help to buffer portfolios against this. Another cheap portfolio insurance is downside SPX put flies to take advantage of the increase in single stock correlation on the downside. In other news, $BABA just launched a preview of the Qwen 3.8 Max... describing it as only second to Fable... this is going to be an interesting development. For those who bidded the Sep calls, this is further juice for upside - remember, if even Burry sells a stock , it has to be the bottom. :P My plan going into the week - I would look to scoop up $SNDK again near 1250s - 1300s region. $NBIS at 150s-160s. $MU at 720s-780s. At this point, neo valuations are at bottom of the range. If you dont believe in NBIS, consider doing a basket. Enjoy the rest of the weekend!

a king moves to survive a pawn moves to conquer

our stream today in 44 minutes 3:15 Kimi K3 is incredible 5:24 Apple won by doing nothing 12:30 Brian & Vlad's memecoin war 23:42 the economy runs on distillation 36:14 Netflix's worst earnings ever 39:43 Trump's speech

if you trade daily, you know most of the job isn’t trading. it’s finding the trades. what’s moving? why? is there an actual catalyst? is there still a trade to take? everything in this video was a trade you could have taken today. 1/2

genuinely one of the best bull posts I've ever read > China open source ai is better than US? Long all capex beneficiaries > China open source ai is NOT better than US? Long all capex beneficiaries

Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker

2 days ago

Kimi K3 may be an important inflection point for AI. Potentially negative for Anthropic and OpenAI while being net positive for essentially every other company in the world. I mean that very literally. Although the real “Sputnik moment” would be an open-source frontier model that

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the entire global economy is propped up by the idea that china is fully distilling US ai models

stubhub should never have another green candle for as long as the company exists

st1ne @SolSt1ne

3 days ago

Everyone knows StubHub tickets are absurdly overpriced. Almost nobody knows why: the CEO himself runs a hedge fund that bulk-buys the tickets, marks them up, and dumps them back on StubHub. - and StubHub gives his fund discounted fees to do it 7-min on how the man who built the

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MARKET OPEN: Memory stocks are DUMPING. BRIAN vs VLAD. Kimi/deepseek part 2. Join on twitch to chat link below x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

> do you like me 🥹👉🏻👈🏻 Ahaha sorry my friend took my phone

Brian Chesky @bchesky

3 days ago

To the person who hacked my account earlier this week: thanks for all the new crypto followers. To my new crypto followers: I’m going to be a very disappointing follow.

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our stream today in 47 minutes 3:15 copy trading Leopold 6:21 give the soldiers steroids 13:38 close your eyes and bid 24:44 intelligence is a commodity 29:52 the end of creator coins 37:15 BTC is private enough 40:13 markets are just memes now

(uncomfortable truth) the market has severely mispriced an outcome where memecoins never die.

i moved my stream to market open which means i go live before scrolling multiple hours of short form video and i am significantly more coherent and have noticeable mental clarity not sure what this means exactly

Bill Ackman says Warren Buffett's brilliance was compounding 20% for 60 years straight "Warren Buffett has been an important hero of mine. I describe him as an informal mentor. I got into this business largely due to my being inspired to learn about Warren Buffett in my early 20s." "What's my goal as an investor? Well, I'd like to have a better track record than Buffett. He ran Berkshire for 60 years, and he's 95. And I'm 60, so just to match the record, I've got a 35 year runway." "I think the brilliance of Warren Buffett is he set forth a list of principles that he stuck to over thick and thin. He basically compounded the capital of Berkshire at 20% per annum over a 60 year period of time, which leads to a really remarkable kind of outcome." "Our goal is to build Howard Hughes into a compounding machine like Berkshire over time. So we took a page from Mr. Buffett, and we'll see how we do.".

Ryan Cohen says the media completely failed to explain why the $GME eBay acquisition makes sense “There has been a complete failure by the media to explain why this transaction makes sense. Number one, my track record, Chewy and GameStop, it speaks for itself. By alignment with shareholders, I'm putting $500 million of my own money into this transaction.” “The high margin growth opportunities for this business, using GameStop stores as nodes for both the marketplace and live commerce is huge because the business today in live commerce is tiny.” “Then building out a digital marketplace for in game items. Those are just some of the high growth opportunities within the business. And then there is the cost takeout opportunity.” “I've committed to taking out $2 billion within the first year, and that's just the beginning. So this whole narrative that the business is going to be too leveraged is a fantasy invented by the media, and it's just simply not true.”

Ryan Cohen explains why dilution will be worth it for $GME investors if the eBay deal goes through “There's different forms of dilution. Most dilution is dilutive to shareholders. If you do the math you’re buying a business for $56 billion, and the business is forecasted to make over $3.5 billion in 2025. Plus I've committed to pulling $2 billion of costs out.” “So you're at over five and a half billion of EBITDA. And then the ability to take this platform and build a much, much larger business. The upside is huge.” “I wouldn't go and buy a business if I didn't think I can take it from $56 billion and turn it into multiples larger. So it's accretive to shareholders, but most of the time when companies are issuing shares, it's dilutive and earnings per share goes down.” “Most of the time you have management teams. A company that collects tons of risk free compensation and they're not aligned with shareholders. In this case, it's a different story.”

The better these open models get, the more validated Apple's strategy will be

nobody is pricing the outcome that memecoins are a foundational part of finance and never going away + pump has an unvampable moat. 100s of launchpads have tried and they all failed. (it is not rollbit. pic below related)

Ansem 🐂🀄️ @blknoiz06

3 days ago

i have a thesis that buybacks don't actually work hyperliquid makes $800M annualized revenue pump fun makes $440M annualized revenue $HYPE trades at $65B FDV while $PUMP trades at $1.4B FDV both teams do regularly recurring buybacks with portions of their profits from the

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MARKET OPEN: Memory is dumping. -Coinbase's New Plan, Shazai deal & Market is Crazy Join on twitch to chat link below x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

our twitch chat deadass gonna buy the world