TaylorTrendSeeker @tt_simplify
Macro Advisor and Finance Geek 🎯📊 Chicago Joined September 2022-
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Software ETFs saw roughly $1.3 billion in outflows during June, marking one of the largest monthly redemption episodes since 2018. Bullish $IGV $SKYY $HACK $BUG $CLOU
Company #earnings drove all of the S&P 500’s 21% return over the last 12 months, and 2Q2026 #earnings will be crucial in determining whether the rally continues, chart @GoldmanSachs
Michael Howell's global liquidity cycle just topped. The 65-month wave that has called every major squeeze since 1965 is now pointing down into 2027. Alone, that's a data point. Look at what it's topping into: – Peak IPO euphoria, with the biggest listings of the cycle rushing to market – A brand new Fed chair facing his first market test – Mid-term seasonality, historically the weakest stretch of the four-year cycle – Record index concentration – Foreign investors all-in on US equities Any one of these is noise. Five of them, converging on the same 12 months, is a setup. Liquidity is the tide. So, did it just turn?
Foreign investors now hold 62% of their US financial assets in equities. The highest allocation in 70 years of data. Higher than 2000, when the number peaked at 53% and the Nasdaq lost 78%. Foreigners were at 25% in 1974. 25% in 2009. Both generational bottoms. Nobody wanted US
The market may be underestimating USD volatility. Rather than chasing a long USD trade, the better expression is long FX vol: if Fed hawkishness drives EUR/USD below 1.14, the dollar could overshoot, but any weak inflation print or dovish Fed shift could trigger a sharp reversal. Own volatility, not conviction.
July 2nd is a special labor market celebration: we get two of our nation's greatest data releases simultaneously, the jobs report AND jobless claims! 1/ Initial claims lower than 2023-25, but not falling further behind. Low but stable layoffs.
Power prices across the PJM grid have surged as an intense heat wave collides with soaring electricity demand from AI data centers. The spike highlights how extreme weather and digital infrastructure are reshaping U.S. power markets. #PowerMarkets #AI #Energy #Electricity oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-…
1/ Just read this chart as cost of compliance with govt regulations. ( via @MacrostrategyP )
We flew Sid in from Chicago. He's now hosting his first ever ai + friends session in the UK at Forma. Join in and build an app w/ AI today. x.com/i/broadcasts/1…
And this is the outcome.
1/ Just read this chart as cost of compliance with govt regulations. ( via @MacrostrategyP )
The better JOLTS question is breadth. A single headline can hide whether labor demand is cooling in one pocket or spreading across the economy. Across the tracked major industries, openings, hires, and quits are telling different stories. That mix is where the macro read lives: weaker openings without weaker hires is very different from broad weakness across both demand and conversion.
Mag7 or the Lag7? The Mags carried the index for >3 yrs, but MAGS is underperforming SPY by double digits this year while the four biggest names guide for ~$700B of total capex That's double last year's record and AI capex is now a whopping 2% of US GDP
With Hyperscaler capex over the next 12mo estimated at $700B-$1T, and their free cash flow growth rate running -34% YoY, more and more must issue debt to fund the AI trade Who will buy it?
@SamanthaLaDuc @ValueSeeker_ @KimbleCharting I think that the BoJ should get rid of its UST at a good FX and nice price FASTER quite frankly. Ppl have it backwards on who is vulnerable. BUT NOT THE BIS They know! Japan won't need much USD given what they are doing on perovskite. Sell it all!
Fundsmith Equity Fund - 14.1% behind its benchmark in H1 2026 (off 2.9% YTD). Heading for a sixth year of consecutive underperformance. Interesting statement about being "in the process of making a number of portfolio changes." 7% in cash. Thoughts? fundsmith.co.uk/factsheet/
What is the message from Dr. Copper? Cycles did not lie. Copper rolled over on cycle schedule.
1/3 Mr. Warsh, inflation is not really up to you in fiscal dominance. As the BIS explained your best bet to lower inflation is to ask the TREASURY to do a fiscal consolidation. If you raise rates in fiscal dominance? You increase inflation via interest burden on debt.
Money didn't originate from the state, no matter how many times contemporary monetary theorists might claim otherwise. | Matt Taylor mises.org/mises-wire/bac…
Source: coindesk.com/policy/2026/06…
MiCA Deadline Pushes More European Crypto Founders Toward the UAE's Friendlier Regulatory Environment More European crypto founders are exploring the UAE as the EU’s MiCA deadline approaches, with firms lacking authorization set to lose access to EU clients after July 1. Dubai-based crypto lawyer Irina Heaver said her firm now receives more than 120 inquiries a week about setting up in the UAE, about half from Europe. She warned that MiCA could drive a brain drain, tax loss and job creation away from Europe. Binance recently withdrew its MiCA application in Greece and told EU users it would suspend some services while seeking another regulatory route.
The Shit Returns Coming on All This AI Capex AI revenues have finally overtaken depreciation, a very low bar. Getting even a decent return on all the capex planned requires the recent 100% revenue growth rate to accelerate over the next 5 years. bobeunlimited.substack.com/p/the-shit-ret…
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Thierry from arvy �... @ThierryBorgeat
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