Bee Bet @863Cool

Forgot to post the round 23 wrap! A modest round, but take the profit!

🐝 BETTING EDUCATION — Edge ≠ certainty A 70% model probability still means we expect that bet to lose roughly 3 times in every 10. That’s why staking matters. No chasing losses. No doubling down because something “should have won”. Each bet is sized according to the value we believe exists at the available price. 1u = 1% of the bank. Maximum stake = 5u. Protect the bank and let the edge compound over the long run. 🐝

@boostar83 I thought this was a joke, but it’s legit hahaha. What is going on here? Unreal

@WilllyPike Never have to take them! Remember the bookies knew Bont was out too, so that was baked into their line. Well done on taking the overs though!

🐝 Round 23 — Remaining Card Can tell I slept well 🤦‍♂️. Bets have been posted correctly, just games wrong. I’ve also added some bets: West Coast v GWS Lachie Whitfield 27+ @ $2.08 — 3.6u Toby Greene 22+ @ $2.23 — 3.1u Carlton v Western Bulldogs Sam Walsh 29+ @ $2.20 — 3.7u Cooper Lord 21+ @ $2.17 — 3.4u Tom Liberatore U23.5 @ $1.92 — 3.7u Ed Richards U26.5 @ $1.88 — 3.6u Total remaining exposure: 21.1u These are the remaining official Bee Bet plays for Round 23. Good luck! 🐝

🐝 Round 23 — Final Games West Coast v GWS ✅ Lachie Whitfield 27+ @ $2.08 — 3.6u | +3.89u ❌ Toby Greene 22+ @ $2.23 — 3.1u | −3.10u Game: 1–1 | +0.79u Carlton v Western Bulldogs ✅ Sam Walsh 29+ @ $2.20 — 3.7u | +4.44u ❌ Tom Liberatore U23.5 @ $1.92 — 3.7u | −3.70u ❌ Ed Richards U26.5 @ $1.88 — 3.6u | −3.60u ❌ Cooper Lord 21+ @ $2.17 — 3.4u | −3.40u Game: 1–3 | −6.26u 🐝 ROUND 23 FINAL Record: 11–10 Staked: 73.7u P/L: +1.88u ROI: +2.6% A rough final game turned what had been a strong round into a small profit, but we still finish Round 23 in the green. Full transparency. Every bet tracked. Onto the next. 🐝

Bee Bet @863Cool

4 days ago

🐝 Round 23 — Remaining Card Can tell I slept well 🤦‍♂️. Bets have been posted correctly, just games wrong. I’ve also added some bets: West Coast v GWS Lachie Whitfield 27+ @ $2.08 — 3.6u Toby Greene 22+ @ $2.23 — 3.1u Carlton v Western Bulldogs Sam Walsh 29+ @ $2.20 — 3.7u

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Model numbers Whitfield — 29.2 proj | 70.5% | Fair $1.42 | +22.5% edge Greene — 23.5 proj | 65.5% | Fair $1.53 | +20.7% edge Walsh — 31.2 proj | 70.5% | Fair $1.42 | +25.1% edge Lord — 22.9 proj | 68.4% | Fair $1.46 | +22.4% edge Liberatore — 20.3 proj | 73.9% | Fair $1.35 | +21.8% edge Richards — 23.7 proj | 71.2% | Fair $1.40 | +18.0% edge 🐝 Round 23 entering these: 9–6 | +8.76u

@chillagod 🤦‍♂️. Can you tell I had a shocking sleep haha

🐝 Carlton v St Kilda — Round 23 Sam Walsh 29+ disposals @ $2.20 — 3.7u Projection: 31.2 disposals The model has Walsh 2.7 disposals above the effective 28.5 line, with the $2.20 price providing plenty of value. Good luck!

New Bet Submitted! 🔥 Capper: @JustDimes Round: Round 23 Game: Essendon Bombers vs Sydney Swans Bet: Charlie Curnow 5+ Goals Bookmaker: Bet365 Odds: 2.6 #AFLCappersLeague

Model breakdown Whitfield — 70.5% | Fair $1.42 | +22.5% edge | EV +1.68u Liberatore — 73.9% | Fair $1.35 | +21.8% edge | EV +1.55u Richards — 71.2% | Fair $1.40 | +18.0% edge | EV +1.22u Total game exposure: 10.9u

🐝 Western Bulldogs v GWS — Round 23 Lachie Whitfield 27+ @ $2.08 — 3.6u Projection: 29.2 Tom Liberatore U23.5 @ $1.92 — 3.7u Projection: 20.3 Ed Richards U26.5 @ $1.88 — 3.6u Projection: 23.7 Three model positions in this one, led by Liberatore with a 3.2-disposal buffer to the under. Good luck!

Model breakdown • Projection: 31.2 • Target: 29+ • Model probability: 70.5% • Book probability: 45.5% • Edge: +25.1% • Fair odds: $1.42 • Stake: 3.7u • Expected value: +2.04u

🐝 Port Adelaide v Melbourne — Results ✅ Joe Berry U16.5 disposals @ $1.85 — 3.6u ❌ Miles Bergman U20.5 disposals @ $1.87 — 3.8u ✅ Lachie Jones U16.5 disposals @ $1.91 — 3.5u ✅ Trent Rivers U22.5 disposals @ $1.89 — 3.5u Result: 3–1 Staked: 14.4u P/L: +5.56u ROI: +38.6% Three of the four unders landed, delivering a strong result from the game. 🐝 Round 23: 9–6 | +8.76u

Bee Bet @863Cool

5 days ago

🐝 Port Adelaide v Melbourne — Bets Added Miles Bergman U20.5 disposals @ $1.87 — 3.8u Projection: 17.3 Lachie Jones U16.5 disposals @ $1.91 — 3.5u Projection: 14.4 Trent Rivers U22.5 disposals @ $1.89 — 3.5u Projection: 20.4 Three unders added alongside the Joe Berry

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🐝 Hawthorn v Collingwood — Results ❌ Jai Newcombe 25+ disposals @ $2.13 — 3.7u ✅ Jack Ginnivan U21.5 disposals @ $1.87 — 3.6u Result: 1–1 Staked: 7.3u P/L: −0.57u ROI: −7.8% Ginnivan landed the under, almost completely covering the Newcombe loss.

Bee Bet @863Cool

5 days ago

🐝 Hawthorn v Collingwood — Bet Added Jack Ginnivan U21.5 disposals @ $1.87 — 3.6u Projection: 18.8 disposals Adding Ginnivan to the Newcombe 25+ position already posted. The model has Ginnivan 2.7 disposals below his line. Good luck!

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🐝 Brisbane v Gold Coast — Result ✅ Josh Dunkley 23+ disposals @ $2.20 — 3.1u Profit: +3.72u Dunkley gets home at better than even money. 🐝 Round 23 so far: 5–4 | +3.77u

Bee Bet @863Cool

5 days ago

🐝 Brisbane v Gold Coast — Round 23 Josh Dunkley 23+ disposals @ $2.20 — 3.1u Projection: 23.7 disposals A smaller projection margin, but the $2.20 price is what makes this a bet. Good luck!

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🐝 Geelong v North Melbourne — Results ❌ Harry Sheezel 28+ disposals @ $2.05 — 3.7u ✅ Jhye Clark U17.5 @ $1.84 — 3.5u ✅ James Worpel U19.5 @ $1.84 — 3.8u ✅ Jy Simpkin 21+ @ $2.23 — 3.1u ❌ Luke Davies-Uniacke 25+ @ $2.19 — 3.1u Result: 3–2 Staked: 17.2u P/L: +3.15u ROI: +18.3% Clark, Worpel and Simpkin all landed, enough to cover the Sheezel and LDU losses. If you bet on Sheezel with Sportsbet, you may’ve got the injury refund, but I’ll officially count it as a loss.🐝

Bee Bet @863Cool

5 days ago

🐝 North Melbourne v Geelong — Bets Added James Worpel U19.5 disposals @ $1.84 — 3.8u Projection: 16.5 Jhye Clark U17.5 disposals @ $1.84 — 3.5u Projection: 14.5 Jy Simpkin 21+ disposals @ $2.23 — 3.1u Projection: 22.0 Luke Davies-Uniacke 25+ disposals @ $2.19 — 3.1u

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@doingwithit It’s a cruel game

Geelong v North Melbourne 🐝 Geelong v North Melbourne — Round 23 Harry Sheezel 28+ disposals @ $2.05 — 3.7u Projection: 31.2 disposals The model has Sheezel 3.7 disposals above the effective 27.5 line, with better-than-even-money odds providing strong value. Good luck!

@doingwithit Far out- tough to project a broken cheek.

@doingwithit Will still get his mid minutes I recon!