ACAP Research @ACAPResearch

Commentary on catalyst-driven investing and special situations. Personal views only. Not investment advice. acapresearch.substack.com Joined November 2021

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CTFN @ctfn_news

10 hours ago

Activist ADW sends letter to the board of Compass Diversified suggesting significant value creation opportunities while threatening proxy fight. Full story at ctfn.news $CODI #corpfin #corpgov #shareholderactivism

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ACAP Research @ACAPResearch

12 hours ago

With illiquid, complex names, sell-side research has an outsized impact on price discovery because it becomes the market’s translation layer. When that translation is wrong (incorrect EBITDA or corporate expenses), or simply too conservative, the consensus reference price can be wrong too. Eventually intrinsic value should outweigh the voting machine of sentiment, but incorrect anchoring can delay the weighing machine. $CODI is one such name. The thesis is a discount to NAV. The debate is what NAV actually is. Since the November 2025 Lugano accounting scandal and Chapter 11 filing, the market has largely stopped valuing $CODI as a collection of private businesses and instead values it as a leveraged holdco in repair mode. Yet the remaining portfolio continues to execute: Sterno’s food service business was sold for 9.7x EBITDA, leverage has been reduced, management fees have been cut, incentives are now tied more closely to shareholder returns, and the company has reaffirmed EBITDA guidance. The challenge is that private businesses don’t have observable market prices. Small differences in EBITDA assumptions, valuation multiples, leverage and holdco discounts can produce dramatically different NAVs. That’s why asset sales matter. Every monetization provides independent price discovery, crystallizes another piece of NAV and narrows the range of outcomes. Frustrating in the interim, but that’s often where the opportunity lies.

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ACAP Research @ACAPResearch

a day ago

@Uzocapital EU Telco RV

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ACAP Research @ACAPResearch

a day ago

$ZEG.L is trading near where it was before the January $VOD preferred share clean-up, despite a meaningfully simplified capital structure, a completed refinancing and continued operational execution. The thesis is an announcement of a normalized capital returns framework (dividend/buyback) in September, followed by a natural rotation in the shareholder base from event-driven/special situations investors into long-only telecom portfolios. Illiquid names tend to overshoot on any earnings announcement, and the risk/reward looks extremely favorable here.

Dylan Marrello @ragingbullcap

a week ago

$ZEG.L Looks extremely asymmetric me again after this recent decline. EV is ~€7B. €3.63B of FY26 revenue and €763m OCF (21% margin). Path to OCF of €1B in a few years is reasonably clear: - €60-70m of tower saving (see OP) - €20m of spectrum savings - meaningful