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@MatthewBerman Everyone is talking about data centers or no data centers. It’s a false dilemma.
How about something on Edge computing, hardware independence, hardware and data independence.
Thats the only path to a truly competitive environment. Not to mention privacy, agency, etc.
The future is open source. We need to embrace it and get on with it.
Imagine if America closed the door on open source.
We would explicitly be forcing American companies to pay $26-56 per 1MM tokens for the same intelligence their adversaries/competitors around the world would pay $0.50-1 for.
This is economically unsustainable unless AI is bullshit.
If it’s the supposed through line of all future economic activity that we’ve been told it is, we can’t handicap America at such a meaningful cost disadvantage.
This can also be viewed thru a military lens and not just a simple economic one as well.
Letting our adversaries attack us for $0.50 per 1MM tokens while we spend $26-56 per 1MM tokens to defend ourselves is equally ruinous.
It’s the Cold War Soviet collapse in reverse.
This is *exactly* what I predicted would happen. I said Chinese models would have advanced cyber capabilities within a matter of months and the only thing to do about it was to use AI-powered cyberdefense to protect our systems. Trying to gatekeep models doesn’t work.
One of the ways scaling test-time compute can benefit people most: have reasoning models think really hard about rare undiagnosed diseases.
Today we’re sharing published evidence that this can work, in some of the most difficult pediatric cases!
@paulg If they can’t describe their products in simple everyday language, then why would we call them a founder?
What have they found if they can’t even find their words?
IBM built a cloud of suits to make sure the CEO never talked to anyone actually doing the work. @elonmusk does the opposite.
"Elon's method is extreme focus on substance. Extreme focus on getting to the truth.
In any organization with multiple layers, there's compounding lies.
AI is supposed to save me time, but now I find myself building stuff all evening and weekend and it's actually increasing my time in front of the computer
WTF
Very interested in what the coming era of highly bespoke software might look like.
Example from this morning - I've become a bit loosy goosy with my cardio recently so I decided to do a more srs, regimented experiment to try to lower my Resting Heart Rate from 50 -> 45, over experiment duration of 8 weeks. The primary way to do this is to aspire to a certain sum total minute goals in Zone 2 cardio and 1 HIIT/week.
1 hour later I vibe coded this super custom dashboard for this very specific experiment that shows me how I'm tracking. Claude had to reverse engineer the Woodway treadmill cloud API to pull raw data, process, filter, debug it and create a web UI frontend to track the experiment. It wasn't a fully smooth experience and I had to notice and ask to fix bugs e.g. it screwed up metric vs. imperial system units and it screwed up on the calendar matching up days to dates etc.
But I still feel like the overall direction is clear:
1) There will never be (and shouldn't be) a specific app on the app store for this kind of thing. I shouldn't have to look for, download and use some kind of a "Cardio experiment tracker", when this thing is ~300 lines of code that an LLM agent will give you in seconds. The idea of an "app store" of a long tail of discrete set of apps you choose from feels somehow wrong and outdated when LLM agents can improvise the app on the spot and just for you.
2) Second, the industry has to reconfigure into a set of services of sensors and actuators with agent native ergonomics. My Woodway treadmill is a sensor - it turns physical state into digital knowledge. It shouldn't maintain some human-readable frontend and my LLM agent shouldn't have to reverse engineer it, it should be an API/CLI easily usable by my agent. I'm a little bit disappointed (and my timelines are correspondingly slower) with how slowly this progression is happening in the industry overall. 99% of products/services still don't have an AI-native CLI yet. 99% of products/services maintain .html/.css docs like I won't immediately look for how to copy paste the whole thing to my agent to get something done. They give you a list of instructions on a webpage to open this or that url and click here or there to do a thing. In 2026. What am I a computer? You do it. Or have my agent do it.
So anyway today I am impressed that this random thing took 1 hour (it would have been ~10 hours 2 years ago). But what excites me more is thinking through how this really should have been 1 minute tops. What has to be in place so that it would be 1 minute? So that I could simply say "Hi can you help me track my cardio over the next 8 weeks", and after a very brief Q&A the app would be up. The AI would already have a lot personal context, it would gather the extra needed data, it would reference and search related skill libraries, and maintain all my little apps/automations.
TLDR the "app store" of a set of discrete apps that you choose from is an increasingly outdated concept all by itself. The future are services of AI-native sensors & actuators orchestrated via LLM glue into highly custom, ephemeral apps. It's just not here yet.
Nathan Lambert warns that defining AGI and ASI isn't just technical, it touches on deeper human beliefs.
People often project dreams or fears onto AI, making it feel almost religious.
This search for meaning shapes how we think about progress and risk in AI development.
He suggests there are many possible paths, and each brings its own emotional and cultural weight.
The conversation around AI is as much about values as it is about capability.
Ben Horowitz explains the biggest mistake founders make pitching VCs
“The big mistake people make is they try to appeal too much to the venture capitalists. That’ll drive us crazy because it’s a little bit of a sign of anti-courage.”
Ben shares an example of being pitched by founders who are conservative in their estimates because they know ‘VCs like conservatism.’ However, what VCs want to hear is what you actually believe — not what you think they want to hear.
“Anything that shows a lack of conviction or courage or belief in what you’re doing is what always ends up worrying me. Either you believe it or you don’t. Either you’re committed or you’re not. Either you have the courage to build the company or you don’t.”
Importantly though, as Ben points out, courage doesn’t mean that you don’t feel fear. He recalls the quote from boxing coach Cus D’Amato:
“The hero and the coward both feel the same thing, but the hero uses his fear, projects it onto his opponent, while the coward runs. It’s the same thing, fear, but it’s what you do with it that matters.”
Video source: @kevinrose (2012)
Saronic CEO Dino Mavrookas’s best advice for new founders:
“Don't ask necessarily what the world needs, but ask what makes you come alive. Because what the world needs is more people that have come alive.”
“Once you build conviction, send it.”
“Pull on those threads, understand the big impacts you wanna have, and then just go ask the questions. I tell this story about going on Capitol Hill with this PowerPoint slide of an electric surfboard. I was just waiting for somebody to just tell me I'm an idiot.”
“You have to be willing to go out, put yourself out there, and then hear the feedback, and listen to the feedback.”
@Saronic CEO @MavrookasD on @StanfordOnline
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