Anthony @Anthony_Grech
ex-IG multi asset strategist, macro analysis and all things tech, venture, blockchain, crypto and igaming🚀 My comments are not financial advice. Always DYOR! Joined November 2012-
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JUST IN 🚨: The Stock Market is approaching a major top and a possible 1987-like crash, warns Michael Burry, the man who has predicted 60 of the last 2 market crashes 🤯 👀
Probably nothing... Keep buying
The credit market is pricing an AI blowup louder than the stock market. Oracle's 5-year CDS pushed past 215 basis points, higher than it ever hit in 2008. Traders now imply a 16% chance it defaults, and hyperscalers are about 80% more likely to default than the average
I'm a former Citadel quant who covered power & gas. There's constant talk about chips & memory, but power is the central bottleneck for AI. Very few people understand it, so I'm posting a canonical primer on power pricing & data centers: power2026.ai
Options Traders are the most bullish on the stock market in more than 11 years after the total put/call ratio plunged to 0.58 yesterday 📈 🥳 🍾
Record spike in call buying, especially alongside strong market momentum, is often viewed as a sign that optimism has become extreme!
And there's your epic buying panic blow-off top: yesterday over 4 million S&P call options were bought, the highest level ever recorded
Gold is coiling and getting ready for a big move 🚨 🚨 Bollinger Bands are now the tightest since August 2025, right before Gold soared 60% over the next 5 months 🚀 🥳
US stocks are cheap despite trading at all time highs. The S&P 500's forward P/E premium relative to global equities is down to ~22%, the lowest since 2020. This marks a significant decline from ~50% seen in Q2 2024. This is also in-line with the levels seen in 2018-2019 and below the 10-year average of 31%. This comes as US earnings are proving exceptionally strong, with S&P 500 profits currently tracking +28.7% YoY growth. By comparison, European companies' earnings growth is tracking at +14.4% YoY, or HALF of US levels. Many US stocks are getting cheaper as they go up.
A historic rotation is underway. On July 15th, @TKL_Adam joined Fox Business and called for a rotation back into the Magnificent 7 to lead the S&P 500 to 8,000. The recent market leadership of chip stocks allowed the Magnificent 7 to correct, while still seeing historic
S&P 500 $SPX has reached its cheapest valuation relative to the rest of the world in 6 years 📈 🥳 🤑
"We have absolute confidence in the Titanic. We believe that the boat is unsinkable." - Philip Franklin, Vice President, White Star Line
@hussmanjp Paraphrasing John Kenneth Galbraith "all financial innovation is just repackaging leverage in various forms." It's ubiquitous now and not captured in the FINRA margin numbers (FWIW Jun numbers released last night and hit a new high relative to GDP and M2).
I’m really excited about what’s going on with Digital Ray, which is my digital twin. I'm creating this so that everyone can have as much contact and as many conversations with me as they want—unlimited amounts, in the same sort of way that I do it. Eventually, it’s going to be a lot smarter than I am. This is all part of the evolutionary process. It’s still a bit experimental, but it really is something. If you want to have unlimited conversations with me, go online and try it. I also highly recommend taking the Principles You personality test. It’s online and only takes about 20 or 30 minutes. It will tell you all about your characteristics and inclinations. Integrating your assessment with Digital Ray allows for highly personalized guidance in Coach Mode, tailored to your unique needs across life and work. You can find a link here: tr.ee/DeYA2K #DigitalRay #ArtificialIntelligence #PrinciplesYou #RayDalio
"A generational transfer in free cash flow is taking place: BofA
@Barchart 'Cheapest in a decade' still leaves the Mag 7 at ~26x forward. It de-rated from ~31x as earnings grew into the price — but the 493 sits at ~19x, so 26x is still a premium, not a bargain. De-rating done, or is ~26x still too rich? Run any two P/Es: calculator.academy/c/lnjexinx91cc…
Magnificent 7 Stocks are now trading at their cheapest valuation relative to the S&P 500 in more than a decade 🚨 🚨
"One bubble after another" Great chart from Morgan Stanley
Fund Managers are now sitting on the lowest cash allocation in history 🚨
Big picture: My base case remains one final move into the $50–55k range before #Bitcoin establishes a sustainable bottom.
Not to blow my own trumpet, but I did call the Bitcoin top almost to the month and price target. 😄 It’s a good reminder that having a clear framework beats following the crowd. bitcoin:native bitcoin:native $bitcoin
I published a “Bitcoin Supercycle 2024–2025” thesis in Dec 2023: coinmarketexpert.com/bitcoin-superc… Now that the cycle has played out, here’s a retro: what I nailed ✅ what I missed ❌ and the key lessons 🧠
Aging is arguably the root cause of most major diseases (loss of function in our cells). Four years ago, we made a bet that aging was treatable, and NewLimit was born. NewLimit now has a prototype drug that reverses the age of some human cells (restores function they had when they were younger), and a clinical trial scheduled for next year (with more drug candidates in the pipeline). Grateful to Founders Fund, Thrive, Greenoaks, and the rest of the investors for this latest round. @jacobkimmel and the team are just getting started.
Following breakthrough results, we’re bringing longevity medicine to human trials. We’ve raised a $435M Series C led by @foundersfund to make it happen. Reprogramming cell age has the potential to create more healthy years for everyone. We're closer than ever to realizing it.
$ETH is trading back to the same levels as June 2017 priced in $QQQ. Almost a whole decade. Lost decade... Dire...
Plausible path: Bitcoin forms a low in June (like it did in June 2018 and June 2022). BTC rallies in July SPX correction later in year which allows Bitcoin to finally bottom (most likely October) Four year cycle wins again
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