The $REKT thesis explained:
- What brand coins are & why they are valuable
- Their roots in traditional finance
- Why Rekt is one of crypto’s strongest brand
- Multi-billion dollar growth of functional drinks
- Energy launch + retail rollout Q4 2025
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$REKT
Wanted to share a few thoughts tonight...
This is from the September 11th MIT publication that dropped on @RealVision:
For starters, unemployment keeps grinding higher, exactly as our lead indicators and GMI/MIT work flagged back in Q1.
That keeps the Fed engaged and is why, as I noted in last week’s video update, the market has started pricing in a higher probability of cuts at the September, October, and December meetings...
US unemployment is now at 4.3%, right on the Fed’s low estimate for 2025 (chart 1).
If it drifts toward 4.5% or 4.6%, as our lead indicators suggest, that’s a green light for more cuts into 2026, even though there are early signs the employment cycle has already turned up. More on that in a moment...
At the same time, unemployment breadth peaked over a year ago and continued to fall in August (chart 2).
Quantitatively, this is a good sign. The index rises into recession, it doesn’t fall…
We peaked last June at 92%, but it has since dropped to 62% of US states reporting a year-on-year rise in unemployment.
Now, take a look at this next chart...
This index tracks weekly overtime hours in the most cyclical parts of the US economy, with data back to the 1950s (chart 3).
Every recession has come when it rolls over toward the -2 standard deviation level, and we are nowhere near that.
Additionally, the August data showed a further pick-up in overtime hours, which, as I have been highlighting in these reports, is much more consistent with an early-cycle economy trying to build momentum than anything else...
This is exactly why S&P earnings revisions keep exploding higher, just as we’ve been expecting (chart 4).
The Fed is cutting rates right as the business cycle is turning up. That’s hugely bullish for risk assets.
These aren’t late-cycle recession cuts. They’re early-cycle insurance cuts... two very different things.
The end of The Waiting Room is near...
💸 34 months into the liquidity cycle—what comes next? @RaoulGMI ft Michael Howell, CEO of @crossbordercap
Massive debt refinancing and plunging tech cash flows could reshape financial markets by 2026.
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Market Cycles and Patterns: Emphasis on the cyclical nature of markets. Identification of patterns such as inverse head and shoulders and consolidation within rising channels in crypto asset charts.
Cryptocurrency Dynamics: Discussion on how specific cryptocurrencies like $DOGE and $SOL have historically outperformed $BTC over different cycles.
The projection of future market phases where altcoins may outperform #Bitcoin due to more extensive use cases beyond just a store of value.
Macro Implications: The interaction between employment rates, financial conditions, and market conditions. Insights on the impact of monetary policy and the Federal Reserve's decisions on asset prices and liquidity.
Long-term Trends: Analysis of the dollar index and its correlation with financial conditions and asset prices.
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It’s been five days since the August jobs report dropped, and I’ve gone through at least 20 takes. The narratives are all over the place, making it hard to separate signal from noise.
Here’s what actually matters:
Unemployment keeps grinding higher, exactly as our lead indicators and GMI/MIT work flagged back in Q1. That keeps the Fed engaged.
At the same time, the earliest signs of a cyclical recovery in employment are already showing up in the data.
Our GMI Early Workforce Activity Index makes that crystal clear (chart 1)…
So on one side, you’ve got the Fed anchored by lagging unemployment data. On the other, the forward-looking data is already turning higher. Classic Business Cycle Dominoes in action (chart 2).
The punchline? Bullish…
The Fed is easing into a cyclical upswing, as shown in our lead indicators (chart 3).
And that’s exactly why S&P 500 earnings revisions are exploding higher (chart 4).
I’ll unpack all of this and more in this week’s MIT report on @RealVision. Drops tomorrow.
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