@KyleReidhead I agree with this, and I give it higher than 50% we see it run back up.
the low float has traded a few times, quick ,money was made, and they will come back again once we have the "irrational" bid. Friday $176+ next week 190
$SPCX: Reuters - SpaceX's wild ride is just getting started
Jefferies estimates Russell index inclusion could draw $2.68 billion from passive investors
Options data imply about a 40% chance shares trade below $130 by mid-September
Some shareholders could sell after first post-IPO earnings if conditions are met
reuters.com/business/finan…
$SPCX Thesis: Wall Street’s Biggest Passive Short Squeeze Ever 🚀
Current price at $159 proves Market Makers are already loading up.
We are looking at a high-probability market anomaly triggered by a wicked structural supply shock.
Here’s the breakdown of my trade:
1. The Free Float Trap (~4.2%)
With Elon and insiders locked into 80% of the shares, there's only about $75B floating out there. For a company valued near $2T, this extreme scarcity creates a total bottleneck. Any massive order is going to drive the price through the roof, completely disconnected from fundamentals.
2. The Institutional Liquidity "Sandwich"
This week, index funds are forced to buy by law—inflexible mandate, price doesn't matter:
Thursday 25th (Close): Forced buying from the MSCI USA index.
Friday 26th (Close): Absolute volume climax with the FTSE Russell 1000 swallowing up ~25% of the available float.
3. The Market Maker (MM) Playbook
MMs and hedge funds are legally front-running this. They’re buying right now at $159 to park inventory on their books so they can flip it for a massive premium to passive ETFs on Friday at 3:59 PM. We are riding this wave with them, not fighting them.
🎯 My Flight Plan:
Entries: Executed low at a wicked structural discount of $148 and $155.
Take Profit: TP1 Set with a limit order at $178, right in the upper half of the technical gap (175/182)
TP2 If the price rises above 190, that would be a good opportunity to take profits and close the second gap. to soak up that forced Russell liquidity right before the closing bell.
Ok, I'm going out on a limb here. And I don't want you to panic or get angry. It's just a chart. This chart could be dead wrong - lord knows I've drawn plenty of those kinds of charts.
But this is what the scenario for a 50% drawdown from the market IPO price could look like from here.
$SPCX 1-hour candlesticks. It might take a lot longer than this to reach $75. Or I could be wrong and we're back up to $225 in a couple of weeks.
It's just a chart to consider. I'll keep updating it as price and time move along, and I'll keep sharing it with you.
I have purchased an additional 280,000 shares of BKKT via my affiliated entity Alpine Fox LP. Alpine Fox LP now holds 905,000 shares in total and has become the 4th largest institutional shareholder in the company. See SEC Form 4 filing here: sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
$btc $eth Where do we go from here?
Long term I see a future for these legacy OG assets but the chart below gives me pause for some concern short term. Real people with conviction like @GaryCardone understand that the long term value of bitcoin:native in a world of fiat gone wild. At the same time, individuals like myself and @BitcoinAIGuy are using most notably $IREN in an attempt to earn more purchase power for $btc.
I personally have held a small amount of bitcoin:native since fall of 2024 when I sold most of mine around $90k and rotated my parents out of $MSTR at 400 early in 2025 to purchase $IREN and $cifr
@Freedom_By_40 noted the performance of $WGMI vs spot $btc today but the reality is the majority of the holdings relate to legacy miners that pivoted their power to AI. Companies like $mara $clsk $cifr $hut $glxy $keel all have $btc HODLs that likely will get liquidated into any recovery to fund their AI aspirations. Combine this with @saylor selling bitcoin:native albeit an immaterial amount to fund $STRC and their appears to be short term overhang that will take time to resolve.
Than I see accounts like @eliottrades promoting $NBIS when I used to watch his program to learn about alt coin opportunities. I respect people willing to change their mind but cannot help but ask is any crypto left worth owning beyond $btc and possibly ethereum:native
I do not currently own any ethereum:native here but I'm considering looking closer at it along with $BKKT @mikealfred because a structural problem exists in the @USTreasury market. @SecScottBessent needs to find more buyers of US treasuries to keep US borrowing costs lower to avoid debt payments overtaking the US budget. Additionally, if there was ever a time for the US government to begin to aggressively build a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, that time may be coming closer as people chase equities and become indifferent.
Additionally, fewer foreign buyers of US treasuries @willweathersby means one thing to me; stable coins. To make the dollar more accessible, its time to disrupt the legacy rails. @tether most notably purchases US treasuries and issues stable coins to make the dollar more accessible around the world. As foreign currencies begin to hyperinflate, all roads lead to $btc and ethereum:0xa0b86991c6218b36c1d19d4a2e9eb0ce3606eb48 for safety in accordance to Brent Johnson's Dollar Milkshake theory.
How soon? I have no idea but for now I will ride the AI wave but I will come back to bitcoin:native with more force when the time is right and maybe $eth $bkkt.
We are a payments company.
At the StoneX Conference, @DanielIshag, Chief Commercial Officer at Bakkt, joined the panel “The Role of Stablecoins in Global Finance”.
Thank you to @StoneX_Official for hosting the conversation and bringing together leaders across payments, digital assets, and financial infrastructure.
For important information: bakkt.com/disclosures
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