BTCharged @BTCharged

According to the average amount of time in a Bear Market, Bitcoin is at 70% completion. The drawdown is still very shallow at 53%, even when accounting for diminishing. That's over 20% less than the previous cycle. Time-wise, not too much to go. Price-wise, I think there's some work to do. July in previous bear markets has been a month of stagnation and dead-cat bounces. Downside typically resumes in August.

🚨 This is the most important Bitcoin bottom indicator. 2018 bottom: 55% of BTC holders in loss 2022 bottom: 50% of BTC holders in loss Now: 34% of $BTC holders in loss Real capitulation has not started yet

Kalshi @Kalshi

4 days ago

JUST IN: Bitcoin reclaims $63,000

92 55 1K 1.3M 12

The Second Low Band of the Bear Bands has confirmed its breakdown, and price has retested it as resistance. The timeline for this model is August - October to reach 44.5k, and November - January to reach 29k. Given the amount of space (not very much) that most data has before bottoming, I could see that happening at 46k instead of 29k. Certainly not a convincing bottom at current prices though.

Just above the unification zone now, where all previous bear market activity lines up. Bitcoin would need to be at least 52k to get there. Again, this zone also implies a slow grind down to 35k by September. Compared to other bear markets, there really hasn't been anything unusual so far after almost 9 months in.

Ah... that looks like a more suitable point 1 for the bear market. A move to the cycle bottom mark on the Aroon Oscillator, in the same month as all other point 1's (June). One more move to cycle bottom levels should make point 2.

On the Magic Bands V2, Bitcoin is still only halfway to the aggressive cycle bottom target of 29k. Price has broken below level 2 (blue), which has happened at various points in other bear markets. The common thread is a move to Level 1 (yellow) and eventually the cycle bottom band (red). I'm not saying that Bitcoin must go to the cycle bottom band this bear market (although it is possible).... but to have excellent consistency across all cycles and then bottom in the middle of the bands would not make sense. I believe data is getting progressively more challenging to interpret. This has already been true for the past two cycle tops and the last cycle bottom. What looks like an obvious weekly bullish divergence on RSI like November 2022 may prove to be just a red herring.

After a predictable move to neutral on Ultimate Fear and Greed in the time frame we'd expect it, the next logical move is back to extreme fear. From this point, F&G usually does this 2 more times before the cycle bottom is in.

Gold looks right on track to start its 4 - 5 year bear market according to the 10/4 Cycles Theory. It had a perfect 10.5-year bull market with a parabolic top in January of this year. Gold and other precious metals are set up to start recovering just before the predicted recession period of the Quartcent Cycles Theory (2034 - 2041). For now, precious metals should take a back seat. But in 5 years from now... it could be a good pivot during the 10 year market pause.

Bitcoin's 2026 bear market performance is now closest to the first bear market in 2014. The unification zone (where all bear markets have lined up) starts in just 10 days, which means Bitcoin would need to be at least 50k by June 18th. Everything's right on track.

This is how I see $BTC over the next months June -> flat July -> mini alt rally during bear August -> dump to $50K September -> fake bounce October -> $40K bottom November -> real bounce December -> start of bull market Bookmark this and come back at the end of the year.

Kalshi @Kalshi

a month ago

JUST IN: 90% chance Bitcoin falls below $60,000

279 269 3K 1.0M 63

No new lows yet, and already the bottom calls are starting to pop up. If you're wondering about cycle bottom data... no major updates to report. Like SOPR, which is still in bear market development mode. Waiting on a move to high loss. Even from people who are bearish, they appear to have a very optimistic perspective of how this will play out. A soft fall in the short term, followed by powerful new ATHs into next year. I think what might surprise a lot of people is how low price can get. Sub 30k is not off the table. For the cycle to stay on track (and of course I believe it will), a curveball is coming.

@CryptoCon_ By a failed cycle do you mean no new ATH? I’d love to see more details in future posts that state a failed cycle. Thank you!!

The cycle bottom target for the Golden Ratio Multiplier is dropping, currently at about 36k. We're watching Level 1, which has been very accurate for previous cycle bottoms. This is slightly below the Realized Market Cap bottom of 42.5k. I think the real answer is probably something in between.

I’m still waiting for the cycle bottom.

A simple observation for the cycle bottom using the TRIX indicator on the Monthly. Good accuracy, just waiting on a crossover.

Bitcoin transaction volume is plummeting, which is a good thing if you're looking for the cycle bottom. But, we're not quite to cycle bottom territory, and the difference does matter. 2014 spent 10 months at these same levels in the channel. Crosses into low transaction volume have been pretty accurate for pinning the cycle bottom, usually within one month. A lot of data is in a similar position. Close, but not quite there.

Long-term Bitcoin holders (people holding for 1 year or more) are moving in the direction we want. The metric is about 60% way to high long-term holder interest/maximum long-term holder stockpiling (blue). The more interested they get in buying, the more interested I get. There's still plenty of ground to cover!

It's just your average Bear Market May on Logarithmic MVRV.

@deedydas Let’s see the numbers behind that 50x

On this day in 1999, Marshall McDougall put together arguably the greatest individual game in baseball history 🤯 The Florida State slugger went 7-for-7 with: ⚾ 6 HR ⚾ 16 RBI ⚾ 25 total bases All NCAA single-game records. After singling in his first at-bat against Maryland, McDougall homered in his next SIX plate appearances, completing a “home run cycle” with a solo shot, 2-run HR, 3-run HR and grand slam in a 26-2 win.