Gareth Moody @CapMarketData

Good morning to Thoughts for the day Podcast, for all the last 24 hours financial news headlines. Please listen to the attached MP3 audio file. Not got time, then listen on the go at the link below! open.substack.com/pub/thoughtsfo… For a deeper dive on today’s topics, please read the Thought for the day News Note. See our new quarterly earnings updates page. giabhs.com/earnings #Macro #FederalReserve #Tariffs #Investing #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets Follow me on X ,search for @GryphonIAB

Are you ahead of the curve, what’s the data telling you? Read the full analysis open.substack.com/pub/thoughtsfo… #FederalReserve #Tariffs #Investing #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets

Are you ahead of the curve, what’s the data telling you? Read the full analysis thoughtsfortheday.substack.com/p/thoughts-for… #FederalReserve #Tariffs #Investing #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets Follow me on X, search for GryphonIAB

Intelligence Assessment: The macro story is policy credibility under stress: US trade authority constraints are colliding with renewed tariff escalation, pushing markets into a regime where legal process, executive workarounds, and partner retaliation matter as much as fundamentals. The result is a higher volatility ceiling across FX, rates, and equities—especially for trade-exposed cyclicals. In parallel, geopolitics is rebuilding a risk-premium stack: the Iran file is again feeding energy pricing and risk appetite, while Ukraine diplomacy headlines remain a tactical catalyst around the war anniversary. The combined effect is a classic “risk-off with selective inflation hedges” pattern—gold and oil supported, growth assets pressured, USD uneven. MORE....Read the full analysis thoughtsfortheday.substack.com/p/thoughts-for… #Macro #FederalReserve #Tariffs #Investing #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets

Policy Chaos & Market Volatility 1️⃣ Markets selling off as tariffs, courts, and policy pivots collide 📉⚖️… when rules change mid-game, how do you even price risk? #Macro #Markets 2️⃣ Stocks down, gold up — the market clearly craving certainty 🪙📊… when trust drops, isn’t safety the hottest trade? #RiskOff #Gold 3️⃣ Treasuries stunned between tariff inflation and rate-cut hopes 🤯📉… if growth slows but prices rise, isn’t stagflation back on stage? #Bonds #Macro 4️⃣ Businesses delaying capex and hiring amid policy zigzags 🏭📦… when CEOs hesitate, doesn’t the economy follow? #Economy #Corporate 5️⃣ Dollar wobbling on credibility doubts 💵📉… if confidence drives currency, is FX just politics in disguise? #USD #FX 6️⃣ ECB steady but data-dependent 🇪🇺📊… in a meeting-by-meeting world, isn’t volatility the only forward guidance? #ECB #Rates Read the full analysis thoughtsfortheday.substack.com/p/thoughts-for… #Macro #FederalReserve #Tariffs #Investing #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets

Are you ahead of the curve, what’s the data telling you? Read the full analysis thoughtsfortheday.substack.com/p/thoughts-for… #Macro #FederalReserve #Tariffs #Investing #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets

STRAIT OF HORMUZ RISK PREMIUM:US–Iran maritime guidance and tanker-interdiction chatter is back in the oil price, with upside convexity if incidents tighten flows or spike insurance/shipping costs. Read the full analysis thoughtsfortheday.substack.com/p/thoughts-for… #Macro #FederalReserve #Tariffs #Investing #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets

Are you ahead of the curve, what’s the data telling you? Read the full analysis thoughtsfortheday.substack.com/p/thoughts-for… #Macro #FederalReserve #Tariffs #Investing #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets

Are you ahead of the curve, what’s the data telling you? Read the full analysis thoughtsfortheday.substack.com/p/thoughts-for… #Macro #FederalReserve #Tariffs #Investing #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets

Good morning to Thoughts for the day Podcast, for all the last 24 hours financial news headlines. Please listen to the attached MP3 audio file. Not got time, then listen on the go! thoughtsfortheday.substack.com/p/thoughts-for… OR Read the full analysis thoughtsfortheday.substack.com/p/thoughts-for… #Macro #FederalReserve #Tariffs #Investing #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets

Risk appetite is being repriced around two intertwined narratives: (1) “AI capex without near-term monetisation” is challenging duration-heavy equity positioning, and (2) geopolitics is reintroducing event-risk premiums (notably Middle East energy routes). The market reaction pattern—tech underperformance, higher vol, flight toward perceived resilience—suggests a fragile bid where liquidity and positioning can dominate fundamentals intraday. Today’s macro focus is labour-market signalling (US jobs) and policy credibility (UK/Canada). If labour data surprises tighter, it reinforces a higher-for-longer floor and prolongs the compression in long-duration equity multiples; a weaker print could stabilise rates but may not immediately repair confidence if earnings guidance remains capex-heavy and margin-light. Read the full analysis thoughtsfortheday.substack.com/p/thoughts-for… #Macro #FederalReserve #Tariffs #Investing #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets

📈 Bonds rebound as Japan’s long end finally breathes—40Y JGBs plunge, gold rips, equities hesitate. Is this stabilization or just the calm before rates re-accelerate? ⏳ #Bonds #Rates Read the full analysis thoughtsfortheday.substack.com/p/thoughts-for… #Macro #FederalReserve #Tariffs #Investing #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets

No data, no direction — Treasuries are flying blind 🔍. Without inflation reports, can traders really price risk… or are we just guessing elegantly? 🤔 #Bonds #CPI #Markets For further analysis… thoughtsfortheday.substack.com/p/thoughts-for… #Macro #FederalReserve #Tariffs #Investing #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets

Tariff Revenue Surge 💰 US has collected $100+B in tariffs so far this year. Bessent: “We could exceed $300B by year-end.” CBO’s decade forecast? $2.8T. For full analysis thoughtsfortheday.substack.com/p/thoughts-for… #Trade #Tariffs #Economy #Markets #Macro #FederalReserve #Tariffs #Investing #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets.

Populist Surge in Europe 🇩🇪🇫🇷🇬🇧 Are current leaders out of sync with the public? Trump leads the USA AfD leads in Germany polls Marine Le Pen tops French polls. Reform UK hits record high in polls. Meloni Rules in Italy The party for Freedom (PVV) leads in Netherlands Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) has taken the lead Viktor Orbán's Fidesz party in power. In power: Italy and Hungary In coalition: Netherlands, Slovakia, Finland For full analysis thoughtsfortheday.substack.com/p/thoughts-for… #Politics #Europe #Geopolitics #Markets #Macro #FederalReserve #Tariffs #Investing #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets

Are you ahead of the curve, what’s the data telling you? Read the full analysis thoughtsfortheday.substack.com/p/thoughts-for… #Macro #FederalReserve #Tariffs #Investing #GlobalTrade #FinancialMarkets.

G -255 Earning Summary for July 16 2025 open.substack.com/pub/systematic…

Systematic credit trading overview and model indicators open.substack.com/pub/systematic…

Systematic credit trading overview and model indicators open.substack.com/pub/systematic…

Systematic credit trading overview and model indicators open.substack.com/pub/systematic…