MindTheChart @ChartMind

And they blame the 4year cycle !

Disclose.tv @disclosetv

3 days ago

NEW - German government plans to abolish the one-year tax-free holding period for cryptocurrencies. disclose.tv/id/yuv594ribc/

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$fartcoin Rage mode on

Indeed!

MindTheChart @ChartMind

6 days ago

At this point in the market, it makes more sense to go all-in on altcoins than to stay in Bitcoin. On the next rebound, you need to maximize your upside. Right now, Bitcoin looks weak from a market perception standpoint, and today there’s virtually no difference between BTC and

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Bitcoin Surges Past $62K as Weak US Jobs Data Sparks Fed Rate Cut Hopes

A bit of green finally

@weaverobotics Had to watch it 10x speed

Reducing every move in Bitcoin to the so-called "four-year cycle" has become one of the biggest oversimplifications in the crypto industry. It's an easy narrative to sell because it's simple, reassuring, and gives investors the illusion that the market follows a predictable script. But markets evolve. Investors evolve. Capital flows evolve. Blindly repeating that "this is how it's always worked" means ignoring a growing list of structural changes that suggest this cycle is fundamentally different from every one that came before. 1. The Four-Year Cycle Is No Longer Enough to Explain Bitcoin The assumption that Bitcoin simply follows a predictable four-year cycle has become an overly simplistic way of looking at the market. For years, investors have assumed that every halving would inevitably be followed by another major bull market. That mindset ignores everything happening outside of crypto from macroeconomic conditions and monetary policy to technological innovation and shifts in global capital allocation. Just because a pattern existed in the past doesn't mean it will continue to repeat indefinitely. 2. The "New All-Time High" Wasn't as Clear as Many People Claim One of the biggest misconceptions is that Bitcoin decisively broke into new all-time highs. While that was technically true against the U.S. dollar, it wasn't true against several major currencies, including the euro. In many cases, Bitcoin simply formed a double top rather than a genuine breakout. The weakness of the U.S. dollar exaggerated Bitcoin's performance, creating a misleading perception of strength that wasn't reflected across other major currencies. 3. The Bitcoin/Nasdaq Ratio Tells a Completely Different Story Perhaps the most overlooked chart is Bitcoin relative to the Nasdaq. During previous bear markets, Bitcoin's weakness largely coincided with significant declines in U.S. equities. This time, however, the relationship has completely changed. The Nasdaq continues pushing to new highs while Bitcoin continues to lose relative strength. That divergence alone suggests we're dealing with a market environment that looks nothing like previous cycles. 4. The Market Landscape Has Fundamentally Changed Crypto no longer has a monopoly on innovation or speculative capital. In previous cycles, blockchain technology was the most exciting growth story available. Today, investors have countless alternatives, including artificial intelligence, high-growth technology companies, IPOs, and other emerging sectors. Speculative capital is now spread across multiple industries rather than flowing almost exclusively into crypto. 5. Crypto Has Lost Many of the Narratives That Drove Previous Bull Markets Earlier cycles were fueled by constant innovation. The emergence of DeFi, NFTs, Layer 1 blockchains, and countless new crypto applications created continuous excitement and attracted enormous amounts of speculative capital. Today, many of those narratives have matured or disappeared altogether. The industry no longer has the same pipeline of groundbreaking innovations capable of generating the hype seen in previous cycles. 6. Regulation Has Permanently Changed Investor Behavior The crypto market is operating in a completely different regulatory environment. KYC requirements, AML rules, on-chain surveillance, stricter taxation, and increasing government oversight have dramatically changed how investors interact with digital assets. Transactions that once felt effortless now come with legal, tax, and compliance considerations, reducing much of the speculative appeal that once defined the industry. 7. The Opportunity Cost of Holding Bitcoin Has Increased Opportunity cost is one of the most overlooked factors in today's market. Over the past few years, the Nasdaq and many AI-related companies have generated returns that rival or even outperform Bitcoin. Investors now have access to multiple high-growth opportunities outside crypto, making capital allocation decisions far more competitive than they were in previous cycles. 8. Even MicroStrategy Exposes How Much the Market Has Changed MicroStrategy itself illustrates how different today's environment has become. The company's entire strategy was built around accumulating Bitcoin indefinitely without selling. Yet as market conditions deteriorated, it was forced to adapt its financial strategy. Whether investors agree with those decisions or not, the fact that such adjustments became necessary highlights how dramatically the landscape has evolved compared to previous cycles. 9. Stablecoins and Traditional Finance Are Changing Bitcoin's Role Stablecoins have become one of the dominant use cases across the digital asset ecosystem. As traditional financial institutions increasingly embrace blockchain technology, Bitcoin's original narrative as decentralized peer-to-peer money has become less central. Today, stablecoins account for a significant share of blockchain transaction volume, while Bitcoin increasingly functions as a store of value and financial asset rather than a payment network. 10. Weakness Is Spreading Across the Entire Crypto Industry The challenges aren't limited to Bitcoin. Publicly traded crypto companies, Bitcoin treasury firms, mining companies, and many crypto-related equities have all struggled relative to broader equity markets. Businesses that diversified beyond Bitcoin have generally performed better than those whose business models remain heavily dependent on Bitcoin's price. 11. Investors Need to Challenge Their Assumptions The biggest mistake investors can make is assuming that the next cycle must unfold exactly like the previous ones. Markets are constantly evolving, and successful investing requires adapting to new realities rather than relying exclusively on historical patterns. Ignoring structural changes simply because a four-year cycle worked before is a dangerous way to approach today's market. 12. Bitcoin Can Still Succeed But the Thesis Has Changed Questioning the four-year cycle isn't the same as becoming bearish on Bitcoin. Bitcoin may still appreciate significantly and deliver strong long-term returns. The difference is that investors should no longer assume those gains will occur simply because the calendar says they should. The market structure has evolved, and long-term investment decisions should evolve with it. Understanding those structural changes may prove far more valuable than blindly trusting a cycle that was never guaranteed to repeat in the first place.

Yet another “invasion” of the old financial system into crypto, diluting Bitcoin’s message as a decentralized alternative and sound money. There is a reason if we trade around 58k and is not the 4 year cycle bs!

Cointelegraph @Cointelegraph

6 days ago

🔥 BIG: Open Standard announces Open USD $OUSD, a stablecoin backed by 140+ partners including Visa, Stripe, Mastercard, BlackRock, Google and Coinbase.

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Four years later, my view remains exactly the same. Regulations have been the downfall of the industry, whether they were inevitable or not. And they'll do the same to the AI industry ! mark my word

MindTheChart @ChartMind

4 years ago

Quello che è successo con tornado cash è un altro passo indietro nell’industria. Sempre più convinto che saranno le regolamentazioni ad arrecare i danni più grossi.

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@videPatasun Quello delle regolamentazioni lo dico da anni, che avrebbero rovinato il settore. Ma in questi casi tutti han fatto finta di nulla, perchè son quelle cose che a nessuno conviene combattere. Ma hanno sicuramente distrutto il settore in maniera irreparabile a mio parere

This chart explains why Bitcoin ETFs keep selling off. Until this changes, there’s simply no incentive to rotate from buying the dip in the Nasdaq to buying the dip in Bitcoin.

Michael had a good idea at the beginning, but he executed it very poorly. If things have gotten to the point where you have to sell Bitcoin near the bottom of the market, then the strategy clearly failed. Instead, he could have taken some profits during periods of strength and built up a USD reserve from those gains. That way, he wouldn't have been forced to sell large amounts under pressure. The idea should have been to sell into strength and buy back into weakness while maintaining a consistent Bitcoin exposure. You could do this with a shitty free daily rsi indicator. No rocket science.. None of this endless array of gimmicks and complex financial instruments would have been necessary. At this point, they're doing nothing but digging the hole even deeper.

Michael Saylor @saylor

a week ago

Strategy has established a $BTC Monetization Program under which we may sell BTC to fund our: - USD Reserve ($1.25B cap) - dividends and interest expense - repurchases of our Digital Credit securities and $MSTR under our repurchase programs

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@crypto_koch Contanti che molte stanno sovraperformando Bitcoin direi che holdare per holdare devi assicurarti che su un forte upside vai a guadagnare la differenza tra i due che è tanta! Per poi tornare in BTC ovviamente

At this point in the market, it makes more sense to go all-in on altcoins than to stay in Bitcoin. On the next rebound, you need to maximize your upside. Right now, Bitcoin looks weak from a market perception standpoint, and today there’s virtually no difference between BTC and altcoins.

Bybit Eu almost completed! Follow this to understand more!

Bybit EU @BybitEU

6 days ago

Today, Bybit EU goes live ahead of tomorrow’s MiCAR transition. 🇪🇺 July 1 marks an important transition deadline for crypto platforms operating in Europe. Clearer rules. Stronger user protection. One common European framework. But what does it mean in practice? Join our

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@Leo_Cav_ Se da qui tutto deve rimbalzare in spot converranno di più le alts ! Se deve scendere ad ogni modo scenderà tutto e molte alts stanno sovraperformando Bitcoin dunque non cambia molto

@Illiberale2 Si è abbastanza normale a mio parere! Nella giornata di ieri il Nasdaq ha messo un 4% ! Bitcoin è sceso! Ogni buy the dip sul Nasdaq è un gain ogni buy the dip su Bitcoin è un lower low! Fino a che questo non cambia gli investitori non hanno ragione di rimanere su Bitcoin etf

That’s exactly the problem. It’s positive for preferred holders only because Strategy is willing to sacrifice common shareholders and even sell Bitcoin to support them. If you need to dilute MSTR, weaken the dividend policy, or monetize BTC just to keep STRC near $100, it suggests the model isn’t self sustaining. You’re not creating value you’re shifting risk and using Bitcoin as the backstop. For every $1 of value in STRC, there are almost $2 of senior debt that must be repaid first. That’s why the $100 liquidation preference isn’t nearly as safe as it sounds.

In my opinion , today’s announcement is negative because it suggests Strategy’s financing model is starting to break down. Issuing new MSTR shares is becoming increasingly dilutive and less effective at raising capital, so the company may now have to sell up to $1.25B of Bitcoin to generate cash. At the same time, it has weakened the STRC dividend policy, which he sees as a sign that the promised payouts are becoming harder to sustain. conclusion is a business model that relied on endlessly raising capital and on Bitcoin continuing to appreciate. Never liked it! But if you hold bitcoin it better work !

Michael Saylor @saylor

a week ago

Strategy announces a Digital Credit Capital Framework designed to strengthen Digital Credit, enhance liquidity, preserve long-term Bitcoin exposure, and support long-term value creation. $MSTR $STRC strategy.com/press/strategy…

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Bitcoin at $300,000? I Believe It… But Here's the Ugly Truth In recent months, more and more analysts have argued that Bitcoin reaching $300,000 is a realistic medium to long term target. In reality, I've never doubted Bitcoin's price potential or its ability to keep climbing. What concerns me is whether investors will maintain their conviction along the way. The biggest risk isn't the destination it's losing confidence before getting there. 1. A Bitcoin Community That Is Becoming Increasingly Divided Bitcoin has always been shaped by internal conflicts. The Block Size Wars, the debates between Bitcoin Core and Bitcoin Knots, and the ongoing disagreements between developers and Bitcoin maximalists are all part of its history. In Bitcoin's early years, these debates were understandable the protocol was still being built. Today, with Bitcoin having become a trillion dollar asset and an institutional investment, many of these divisions feel increasingly unnecessary and counterproductive. Many early adopters have already reduced their exposure, stepped away from the ecosystem, or shifted their attention toward privacy-focused projects such as Zcash or even artificial intelligence. The community is no longer as unified as it once was. OG dumped their bags 2. Regulation Is Increasing While Privacy Remains Limited Bitcoin remains one of the strongest tools for self-custody and permissionless value transfer. However, it does not provide native privacy. The expansion of KYC and AML requirements, taxation , Micar ecc, increasing regulatory pressure have made owning Bitcoin much more complicated and less convenient than it was a years ago. Meanwhile, DeFi has exposed significant security vulnerabilities. As a result, many investors now prefer regulated custodial solutions over the risks and responsibilities of full selfcustody. 3. Speculative Capital Is Finding Better Opportunities Elsewhere For years, crypto was the primary destination for investors seeking extreme volatility and outsized returns. Today, that landscape has changed. Capital and attention are increasingly flowing into sectors such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, space technology, nuclear energy, and biotechnology. For many retail investors, crypto is no longer the only or even the most exciting place to find innovation and exponential growth. 4. Opportunity Cost Compared to the Stock Market One of the biggest questions today is how Bitcoin compares with traditional equity markets. After Gold outperformed Bitcoin in 2025 , Bitcoin has struggled to consistently outperform major indices like the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 over recent years. In several periods, equities continued to rally while Bitcoin lagged behind. During market corrections, however, Bitcoin has often amplified the downside. For both institutional and rational retail investors, the question becomes increasingly valid: why allocate capital to Bitcoin instead of leading technology stocks? 5. Blockchain's Biggest Problem Today Is Demand During previous market cycles, Bitcoin and blockchain represented the frontier of technological innovation. Since then, we've seen DeFi, NFTs, and countless blockchain applications emerge. Yet many of these use cases have struggled to demonstrate compelling realworld advantages at scale. In the era of artificial intelligence, blockchain's primary challenge is no longer technology it is demand. Decentralized computing, decentralized storage, and privacy technologies all offer meaningful benefits, but not enough to convince enterprises to migrate away from existing infrastructure. At the moment, one of the few areas with genuine long-term potential appears to be AI agent payments, where blockchain and traditional financial systems are effectively competing on equal footing. 6. The Systemic Risk Created by Strategy One of Bitcoin's core narratives has always been that it belongs to everyone and depends on no single individual or institution. Yet today, a single company Strategy controls hundreds of thousands of BTC, much of it acquired through leveraged financing. This creates a potential systemic risk. If the company were ever to face debt or liquidity issues, the impact on Bitcoin's market could be significant. It raises an uncomfortable question: is the real problem the entity accumulating so much Bitcoin, or the system that allows such concentration? At the end Bitcoin still has exceptionally strong fundamentals: a fixed supply, increasing institutional adoption, and a growing narrative as a global reserve asset. For these reasons, I believe a move toward $300,000 or even higher over the next major market cycle is entirely realistic. That said, the path is unlikely to be smooth. Internal fragmentation, increasing regulation, competition from other high-growth industries, opportunity costs versus equities, limited real-world blockchain demand, and emerging systemic risks all represent meaningful headwinds that investors should not ignore.