8/8 Stablecoin Outflows Decelerate
July's stablecoin supply recorded a $3.4 billion net outflow, a third consecutive month of contraction, though the pace eased by roughly 40% from June's $5.5 billion. Our base case remains that this is a macro-driven bleed rather than a structural crisis, and we do not think it hardens into a return of the January deep-bear regime unless the long end continues to reprice.
7/8 Key Charts to Watch: BTC — Breakout Potential
BTC remained range-bound over the month, while still posting an approximately 7% gain in July. Open interest and leverage-related indicators have recently turned constructive, suggesting that market positioning remains relatively clean and that there may be room for further upside. With volatility currently at subdued levels, BTC could be positioned for an upside breakout from its prevailing range next month, provided that macro conditions do not deteriorate further or that more supportive policy and economic developments emerge.
🛢️CL Market Structure
WTI futures fell 7.5% on Jul 27, but Cushing remained at 19.37m bbl and refineries ran at 96.1%. Event premium faded before physical normalization. Watch shipping and backwardation together.
Read more: coinex.com/insight/report…#WTI#OilTrading#CryptoTrading
5/6 ⚖️ Leverage is context
Single-venue OI growth was moderate, while funding and basis were not extreme. That lowers the resemblance to a crowded leverage-led surge, but it does not confirm direction.
Price, spot activity, and ETF demand still have to do the work.
1/6 ₿ **Pre-breakout—or still repair?
Bitcoin has reclaimed its short-term averages, but the weekly trend and medium-term demand signals have not confirmed a sustainable breakout.
Here is the four-part framework we are watching. 🧵
coinex.com/insight/report…
6/6 - 🔎What would confirm a rerating?
- Relative strength extends into 90D
- Spot activity is matched by onchain use
- Rent, burn, staking or token utility improves
- Supply growth remains absorbable
Which L2 can prove all three terms at once? Read more:
coinex.com/insight/report…
5/6 - 🏦 The Robinhood test
#RobinhoodChain gives Arbitrum a real distribution catalyst and uses $ETH gas plus #Ethereum blobs.
But that does not prove direct $ARB accrual. Early transaction and address counters are discovery signals, not organic-adoption proof.
1/6 - ⚖️ Scaling without a token premium
#Layer2 processed more activity, but their tokens lost the broad premium.
CoinEx closes through Jul 20: 7 of 8 selected L2 tokens lagged $ETH over 1Y.
The L2 label is no longer enough. 🧵👇
coinex.com/insight/report…
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