Coinugget @Coinugget

Just a place for clean crypto data & easy market reads. Joined May 2026

Tweets

38
Followers

30
Following

31
Likes

28

Coinugget @Coinugget

11 hours ago

Following Michael Saylor's announcement, the remaining capital runway has extended from 9.8 months to 17.4 months. As a result, the price of bitcoin:native is surging.

8 0 12 38 0

View Details

Strategy's mNAV just slipped to 0.99, below 1 for the first time ever. That ratio measures market cap against the Bitcoin on its books, so a reading under 1 means the market now values the company at less than the coins it holds. The premium that powered the whole accumulation engine is gone, and there is little reason to own MSTR over simply holding BTC. The deeper problem is the cash gap. With 847,363 BTC behind it, the firm can cover dividends for 29.6 years if it sells coins, yet only 9.8 months on cash alone. Saylor's vow never to sell becomes the very thing that starves the balance sheet. The trap is reflexive. Selling BTC to survive pressures the price, which drags MSTR lower, which forces more selling. With the stock already down 79% on the year, that loop is the real risk now. $MSTR

18 0 23 400 0

View Details

Coinugget @Coinugget

14 hours ago

Let's walk through both charts. Left is the BTC weekly, right is the daily. Starting with the weekly. The purple line is the MA200, and price is testing it for the second time right now. Our read is that it'll probably break through to the downside. What matters here is the prior move. BTC held support at the MA100 (the green line) earlier, but then broke down hard right after. So the precedent isn't encouraging. That said, the weekly MA200 can act as very strong support. Our base case is that we drop a bit more, print a long lower wick, and then bounce hard off it. The previous weekly low sits at 49k, and that level absolutely cannot be touched. If price keeps falling, we'd expect 53k at the deepest, around the red supply zone. On the daily (right), price has already broken hard below the rising trendline (the orange circle), and it's even cracked slightly under the prior low at 60k. The current base is a bit too shaky to call it the real bottom. There's a good chance we see one more lower low before this is done. So rather than rushing in to buy, the smart move is to stay on the sidelines and wait for that next leg down.