Colm Fitzgerald @ColmFitzgerald

“The U.S. and Iran agreed to stop attacking each other, according to a senior U.S. official, as the two sides plan to meet Tuesday in Qatar's capital” JUST BEFORE FUTURES OPEN, SO POLITE!!! 🥹🙏

CNN: The U.S. Navy reports the expansion of a passage near the Sultanate of Oman inside the Strait of Hormuz, allowing for increased two-way ship transit

In the Golden Age of Grift, Wars only take place when the Market is closed. Etiquette 🤭

🇺🇸 The US bank stress test results did not get a huge amount of attention but it signals that the US banking system is not the weak link in the cycle today. 📊 The Fed tested 32 large banks under a severe recession scenario, with unemployment rising to 10%, a sharp correction in both residential and commercial real estate, and significant credit stress. Despite more than $700bn in hypothetical losses, the aggregate capital ratio would only fall from 12.8% to 11.2%. ✅ This is clearly bullish for financials but also positive for the broader US market because a solid banking system reduces the risk of a credit crunch. If banks are well capitalized, they can continue financing the economy instead of sharply cutting credit to households and businesses. This supports risk-on sentiment and reduces the risk of a systemic accident. 🏦 An other important point is that banks can also restart capital returns to shareholders. Several major institutions have already announced dividend increases or share buyback programs. Therefore, banks are not only just surviving the test but they have enough excess capital to reward shareholders. The United States remains firmly in a position of economic and financial resilience. *Fed link: federalreserve.gov/publications/d…

🇨🇳 Direct financing through bonds and equity in #China is increasingly overtaking bank lending as an important source of new funding, marking a structural shift in the financial system, the Shanghai Securities News says in a report. ➡ China’s shift toward direct financing may have reached a tipping point, says Lian Ping, chairman of the China Chief Economists Forum, with bonds and equity beginning to outpace loans in new funding since 2025. ➡ Lian said the trend reflects an economic transition toward technology and emerging industries, which in the early days rely more on capital markets, venture funding and bond issuance than traditional bank credit. ➡Ming Ming, chief economist at Citic Securities, expects direct financing to account for more than 50% of total social financing within the next five to 10 years. *Link (Chinese): paper.cnstock.com/html/2026-06/2…

U.S.'S BESSENT: TREASURY HAS ISSUED TEMPORARY 60-DAY GENERAL LICENSE AUTHORIZING IRANIAN OIL PRODUCTION AND SALES AFTER PRODUCTIVE SWITZERLAND TALKS

Eric Schmidt saying the quiet part out loud: "What I don't like about [China's AI] is that it's all open source which means it's largely uncontrolled and not controlled in any way by us." He adds, "if that makes you feel any better," that only 2 or 3 countries can be independent AI powers. In other words, it's all about hegemony: the ideal scenario is a world where AI is controlled by the US - and the fewer countries that can resist that, the better. Src for the video: youtube.com/watch?v=I2F2xF…

IRAN'S TOP JOINT MILITARY COMMAND SAYS STRAIT OF HORMUZ CLOSED DUE TO ALLEGED U.S. AND ISRAELI VIOLATIONS OF CEASEFIRE MOU

🇺🇸 The biggest question facing new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh isn’t where rates go next ⚠ ➡ It’s whether AI is a productivity revolution happening now—or a productivity promise that markets are pricing in years too early. The historical parallel is Alan Greenspan in the 1990s: • In 1996, the Fed allowed strong growth to continue as productivity improved. • In 1999, it tightened aggressively as markets overheated. Warsh appears to believe we are in the 1996 scenario: productivity gains from AI will eventually expand supply and ease inflationary pressures. Others argue that because everyone expects AI gains, companies and investors are spending ahead of those benefits, creating demand today while productivity arrives later. In that case, higher rates may still be necessary. The central banking question of this decade may be simple: Is AI already making the economy more productive, or is it simply making everyone spend more in anticipation of future productivity? ➡ That answer could determine the path of interest rates, inflation, and economic growth over the next several years. *WSJ link: wsj.com/economy/centra… For JPM, AI's long-term productivity potential is massive for the coming years ⬇ x.com/MikeZaccardi/s…

Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 @MikeZaccardi

2 weeks ago

JPMAM: AI's long-term productivity potential... massive boom 2030 and beyond?

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@C_Barraud Sounds like the story the US used to effectively sabotage Japan’s ascension by getting them to spur their domestic demand that resulted in boom and a big bust. You’d think China knows this and will try to learn from Japan’s mistake.

🇨🇳 China is recording massive trade surpluses, exporting heavily to the rest of the world, and maintaining an extremely competitive industrial base. Yet its currency remains highly controlled and does not fully reflect China’s trade power. ➡️ A country that sells far more than it buys should see its currency appreciate because its trading partners need that currency to pay for its exports. However, Beijing has little interest in allowing the yuan to rise too quickly because a stronger currency would reduce exporters’ competitiveness, squeeze industrial margins, and weaken an external growth engine that has become crucial at a time when consumption, real estate, and confidence remain fragile. 🤷‍♂️ External strength masking internal weakness is probably the core paradox of China today. If China is generating such large surpluses, it is not only because it exports a lot but also because domestic demand remains insufficient. The country imports relatively little, consumes too little, and therefore continues to rely on its industrial machine to support growth. ⚠️ This strategy is getting increasingly unacceptable for the rest of the world. If China exports its overcapacity without allowing its currency to appreciate meaningfully, it effectively transfers part of its imbalances to its trading partners. If the yuan does not act as an adjustment mechanism, the adjustment may come through other channels such as tariffs, anti-dumping investigations, trade restrictions, and regulatory barriers. The yuan may continue to appreciate gradually but probably not fast enough to fully ease the frustrations of the rest of the world. *Bloomberg link: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

You could say this is the predicable end to a war that was analogous with Cambyses’ attack that I mentioned in tweets earlier this year. That said the bigger Thucydides analogy is still holding so it might not be the end yet.

Barry Malone @malonebarry

2 weeks ago

The utter comedy of this being signed at Versailles.

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🌎 Battery storage costs fall below gas-fired power plants for first time - Nikkei Asia asia.nikkei.com/business/energ…

Iran says Strait of Hormuz to reopen fully Friday.

What a remarkable outcome: the world's largest ever oil supply disruption failed to create a major energy crisis. The IEA said 2026 shock was worst than 1973, 1979 and 2022 together. And yet, the cost of oil, natural gas, electricity and coal never surpassed the previous peaks.

Are FDD lunatics okay? Trump is gifting the biggest oil sanction relief to Iran, arguably a worse deal than JCPOA and none of the war’s aims have been achieved.

🇬🇧 In London, job openings for some white-collar roles have collapsed. Even if AI does not explain everything, the old model of knowledge work is clearly starting to break. ➡️ Some roles that used to sit at the heart of London’s service economy are now down to double-digit openings but we need to be careful as 2022 was a very specific period, with a still-tight labor market, post-Covid overhiring, tech euphoria and much more favorable financial conditions. Since then, rates have risen, the UK economy has slowed, banks and consulting firms have been looking to cut costs, and M&A/advisory activity has normalized. 🤔 In my view, AI is compressing the pyramid. Demand for senior profiles remains strong but junior generalists and repetitive task-based roles are much more exposed. The problem is that these tasks were also training tasks, so if companies cut junior cohorts too aggressively, they may improve margins in the short term but weaken their talent pipeline in the medium term. The people who will come out ahead will not simply be those who use AI but those who know how to use it to become better at a real profession. *Bloomberg link: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? - Polymarket polymarket.com/fr/event/strai…

Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: The US and Israel’s “good cop, bad cop” strategy for diplomacy while allowing continued Israeli attacks is outdated"

The only wealth which you will keep forever is the wealth you have given away. – Marcus Aurelius