Colubeat ID @ColubeatID
✍️I analyze great businesses. Some undervalued, all high quality. Always learning 🔗 https://t.co/k91CQDZ0Ov colubeat.com Joined April 2012-
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Here's the article: open.substack.com/pub/colubeatid…
I don't like learning ratios in isolation. I'd rather take a real company apart until the number makes sense. Today's lab: BJ's Wholesale $BJ, and a balance sheet that looks risky until you read the cash flow statement. Free to read. <10 min 👇
Didn't plan to write about $ALX this soon. But the more I looked at what Q2 is going to show, the more I felt I needed to figure out what I actually think before the headlines tell me what to think. Write-up is below👇.
@joinyellowbrick @LuxOpesResearch @the_analyst_24 @finphysnerd @ArmsGarrett Thanks for sharing!
@patienceisking Yeah, same. But the business keeps doing what it said it would: EBITDA up, backlog growing, margins expanding. The price just hasn't agreed yet. Don’t know $PGY well enough, but the sentiment makes sense.
$TIC: $80M data center business vs $120B US market TAM. Same company, two completely different stories depending on which number you focus on. US, India/Indonesia, China, Europe/Middle East: each region would close that gap on a different timeline, if at all.
Been looking at $TIC's data center business region by region. US, India/Indonesia, China, Europe/ME. The “risky” region doesn’t really look like the risky one. Curious if others see it the same way. Link to the full write-up below
@taobanker Yeah and it's still ramping, Big River 2, Gerdau's expansion landing in H1'26, $USLM close to a freight monopoly for part of that cluster. If Q2/Q3 confirms it, the thesis gets stronger
@VulmearJ45663 @askjussi $RYN completed the PotlatchDeltic merger in Jan 2026 and now operates 6 sawmills plus an industrial plywood mill. Top10 U.S. lumber producer. Still think it's better value than $WY. Just a more complex story now than pure timberland.
@askjussi $RYN sold its own land to private buyers at 44x EBITDA last year while trading publicly at 15x implied. That gap you're describing isn't just narrative, someone already put a price on it. The market just isn't paying it yet.
2/ At the same multiple, $USLM comes out around $112/share, above where it trades today. Not a price target, just a useful sanity check on what a strategic buyer is willing to pay for this kind of asset.
1/ $MLM announced yesterday it's buying Lhoist's lime business, 15.5x EBITDA. Lhoist runs 45% margins. $USLM runs closer to 49%, debt-free.
@PSchlakman I don't think AI fear is what's pricing it, that's leverage + the non-cash GAAP loss. T&I is well insulated, CE design is where AI actually shows up. It's just my read though, more detail in the thesis if you're curious ;)
Been looking at $TIC's data center business region by region. US, India/Indonesia, China, Europe/ME. The “risky” region doesn’t really look like the risky one. Curious if others see it the same way. Link to the full write-up below
4/4 Full NAV math coming later this week. That said, it doesn't change the valuation much, but it does remove a real risk in the model.
3/4 The lineup was already pretty strong: Costco, Burlington, Best Buy, Marshalls, T.J. Maxx, Aldi, Petco. Adding Target brings the weighted average lease term across the center to about 9.3 years.
1/4 This is good news for $ALX: Target just leased 135,000 sq ft at Rego Park Shopping Center. With this lease, the center is 99% leased. This is one of those updates that looks like occupancy news, but isn’t really about occupancy.
Anyone holding $BZU.MI should probably look at 2 things: the buyback is real, and the pace actually tells you something about what the family thinks is cheap. Went through 4 months of filings, found both the good news and one thing that still worries me a bit. 10min read👇
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