$ETH
Range (ETH) and Uterus (BTC) below a resistance lead with a high probability to break of resistance- Its that easy
And you cant do anything about it
No time to explain
Sunday Market Update is now live ✅
Be prepared for the coming week — volatility ahead!
The market is getting interesting with #Indices approaching all-time highs, while #Crypto remains stuck in a boring sideways range near the lows.
But a storm is ahead ⏳
whop.com/cryptovision/w…
⚠️CONFIRMED - we are in 2007 (my weekend's work)
Autos we need to focus on and small shadow banking outfits.
With Dodd-Frank, subprime mortgages virtually vanished, but they still exist (ca. $55B).
Everyone's braced for "2008 again." They're looking at the wrong place.
Subprime mortgage risk didn't vanish after the crisis - it moved off bank balance sheets. Today it's originated by non-banks, bundled into private mortgage bonds (RMBS) by outfits like Angel Oak (AOMR), and sold to insurers, REITs and funds. The regulated banks barely touch it.
What replaced 2007-style subprime is "non-QM" - non-qualified mortgages: loans outside the government's standard box (self-employed borrowers using bank statements, real-estate investors, irregular income).
Unlike 2007's no-doc "liar loans," non-QM must verify ability-to-repay by law, and averages ca. 760 FICO.
Better underwritten than 2007 - but off the supervised system, in securitizations and insurance portfolios regulators admit they can't fully see.
Meanwhile, the new canary in the coal mine isn't mortgages - it's subprime auto.
Delinquencies just hit a 32-year high. And here's the twist: a car is far worse collateral than a house. A house can hold or gain value; a car loses value the moment it's driven off the lot and keeps depreciating. So when a subprime auto loan goes bad, the collateral backing it is worth far less than the loan - a structurally weaker setup than a mortgage, just in a market ca. 4x smaller.
The last crisis was on bank balance sheets, in a market backed by appreciating homes. Today's stress is off them - in the shadows, backed by depreciating cars.
To be continued.
Dislocations in the long end of the yield curve have been extreme in Japan for the past two years, a symptom of BoJ efforts to keep long-term yields artificially low. The US and UK are also seeing first signs of this. The global debt crisis is spreading...
robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/where-is-the…
Good Sunday, friends 🤝
The market is low-volatility and pretty boring over the weekend, as usual. And with the weekend still going, there’s not much point staying glued to the screens.
For now, price continues to hold above Daily OB, with no clear move in either direction. At the same time, Spot CVD continues to rise on 1H (top exchanges aggregator), while Perp CVD is trending lower. And considering the OI increase during Friday’s move lower, I still allow for the possibility of a short squeeze
Happy Friday, everyone🤝
$BTC continues to trade inside descending channel on LTF, following the scenario I outlined previously.
Right now, price is testing previously formed daily OB, which also aligns w/ S1 63K, while S2 62.3K sits just below.
One thing worth pointing out:
bitcoin:native first lower to flush those longs while massive liquidity is building above, just to then rip all these shorts with a massive move higher.
Patience is 🔑
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