Max Rockatansky @Cycle_Watcher
PM. Macro, long/short equity & credit. Not advice. Joined May 2010-
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MS PB this morning: "HFs Unwind Index Level Hedges at Fastest Clip Since Early April Mkt Recovery. HFs were large net buyers... driven largely by long additions, though HFs did also unwind shorts albeit in smaller amounts."
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Nonsense. This is Morgan Stanley's prime book. Goldman's will look similar.
Hedge Funds have increased their short exposure to the highest level in AT LEAST the last decade 🚨🚨
Nonsense... MS PB this morning: "HFs Unwind Index Level Hedges at Fastest Clip Since Early April Mkt Recovery. HFs were large net buyers... driven largely by long additions, though HFs did also unwind shorts albeit in smaller amounts."
Positioning has never been more over-extended
Back for the first time since 2/23, the "Hindenburg" hit yesterday.
Hindenberg yesterday. Last instances were 11/5/25 and 2/7/25 (signals >1.6% within 2% of SPX ATH)...
@calvinfroedge tbf... few would be very sharp after 24hrs of negotiations on an international stage while traveling abroad
Notwithstanding Retail's recent behavioral shifts, positioning remains very full. We have seen nothing resembling capitulation.
Both Citadel and JPM noting a change in the behavior of Retail over the past month... "Today’s relief rally brings confirmation that the shift in retail behavior that we have observed over the past month is persisting: retail moved from ‘buying the dip’ (e.g. this time last
@realKunalAShah or they're using the negotiations as a peaceful moment in time to scout and prepare
@eekyboo I post them from time to time... the data is from the CoT and MorgStan
With oil stubbornly below $100, the energy specialists of '26 are increasingly looking like the freight experts of '25...
In '20, many saw Covid coming but ignored... and lived to regret. In '25, freight "experts" warn of out-of-stocks... and proved to be bullsh*t. In '26, energy specialists warn of $150 oil... Feels like everyone is anchored to the '25 experience and forgot '20. Not sure...
@StockNews690137 it just reminded me of trading through these periods
@stevehou We'll see... those flows have been the primary dip-buying support for years. Fading retail hasn't worked since pre-covid.
@KrisAbdelmessih dare to dream...
@endless_frank We'll see... those flows have been the primary dip-buying support for years. Fading retail hasn't worked since pre-covid.
@realpristinecap intelligent... nice prom pic
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