Pat @DERFAA

Joined April 2013

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Following

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Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach

4 years ago

On August 20 every year, Dr. Bill Gray would ring a bell denoting the start of the climatologically most active portion of the Atlantic #hurricane season. Historically, ~90% of Atlantic major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes form after August 20th.

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Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach

4 years ago

Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast update from @ColoradoStateU calls for very active season: 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes & 5 major hurricanes. Forecast increased from April due to low chance of #ElNino & warmer than normal tropical Atlantic: tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-…

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Pat @DERFAA

4 years ago

@philklotzbach That's awesome! Let me know when you take the Colorado Trail to Durango and I'll buy you dinner!

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Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach

4 years ago

The UK Met Office has issued its seasonal Atlantic #hurricane forecast and calls for an above-normal season. Most likely numbers are: 18 named storms 9 hurricanes 4 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes 176 Accumulated Cyclone Energy

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Pat @DERFAA

4 years ago

Subscribe to Party of One, by @ccclangella claudialangella.substack.com/?r=to0u7&s=r&u…

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Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach

4 years ago

No models in the latest ENSO prediction plume call for #ElNino conditions for the peak of the Atlantic #hurricane season (August-October). El Nino typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity via increases in vertical wind shear.

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Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach

4 years ago

Average August-October sea surface temperature anomalies in CSU's six analog years for 2022 Atlantic hurricane season: 1996, 2000, 2001, 2008, 2012 and 2021. Analogs selected based on cool neutral ENSO/weak La Nina and near average to warm tropical Atlantic for August-October.

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Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach

4 years ago

Atlantic seasonal #hurricane forecast from @ColoradoStateU calls for above-average season: 19 named storms, 9 hurricanes & 4 major hurricanes. Reasons for above-average forecast include predicted lack of #ElNino and warmer than normal subtropical Atlantic tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-…

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Pat @DERFAA

5 years ago

Subscribe to Party of One claudialangella.substack.com/?utm_campaign=…

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Pat @DERFAA

5 years ago

Join me at RLPSA 2022 Annual Conference! Find out more at rlpsa.swoogo.com/RLPSA2022

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National Weather Service @NWS

5 years ago

Starting July 28, Severe Thunderstorms deemed “destructive” will activate a Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) on smartphones. Criteria for a destructive threat is at least 2.75 inch diameter hail and/or 80 mph thunderstorm winds. Read more: weather.gov/news/072221-sv…

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Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach

5 years ago

This morning's Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook looks more like one I would expect to see in September than in June! National #Hurricane Center is currently monitoring 3 areas with a 70%, 60% and 20% chance of development in next 5 days.

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Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach

5 years ago

Latest probabilistic ENSO forecast from NOAA continues to call for a very low chance of #ElNino (just 7%) for the peak of the Atlantic #hurricane season (August-October). El Nino typically reduces Atlantic hurricane activity via increases in vertical wind shear.

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Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach

5 years ago

The subtropical Atlantic is much warmer than normal and tropical Atlantic is near average. The region with above-normal SSTs in Atlantic correlates fairly well with typical June SST pattern associated with above-normal #hurricane seasons.

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Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach

5 years ago

19 hurricanes and 1 major #hurricane (Category 3 Audrey in 1957) have made landfall in the continental US in June on record (since 1851).

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Pat @DERFAA

5 years ago

Thank you @AdamGlobalPhone. @EarlyAlertInc appreciates you organizing and we hope everyone who attended found much value and are more prepared for the upcoming Hurricane Season #Hurricane

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Philip Klotzbach @philklotzbach

5 years ago

Much of eastern subtropical Atlantic is currently in moderate/strong marine heatwave. Warmer than normal April subtropical Atlantic typically correlates w/ more active Atlantic #hurricane season. Warmer subtropics->weaker subtropical high->weaker trades->warmer tropical Atlantic