Danny Ocean @DannyOcean555

PRMB Look, I’ve never done sales for Primo- But I’m having a hard time believing “ABC Financial Institution” is deeply concerned about critical vendor risk from the guy who refills the break room water cooler.

Danny Ocean @DannyOcean555

5 months ago

PRMB Didn’t hit the soft guide of +ve customer adds in December, but at this px (8x EBITDA), (improving) directionality is probably what matters H1 likely will have added integration spend (SAP & WMS), so hope is that’s offset w/ improvement elsewhere- E.g.: truck loading

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@FrankieFF_ I’m sold. Time for a lazy 50/25/25 EVR/PJT/MC basket. +Some DFIN.

BJRI Nice call out by Axios the other day on Shaich's large & growing stake Shaich's been involved/a rep of his has had a director's seat since at least 2020 & I'm sure helped pick Tick Eyeballing comps- decent & improved in '25, guiding for more of the same in '26, & largely traffic driven. If the guide holds >> accelerating comps on a 2 yr basis. (Check decline seems mostly a mix issue- blame the growth of the late night crowd- pricing is steady to slightly up) RL margins up 100 bps over the period, implied guide for another 40 - 50 in '26. So, not jamming promos for traffic / or can at least manage costs And, most importantly (see: Chili's mozzarella cheese pull craze)- BJRI has a semi-viral social media hit in its Pizookie dessert.

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@stoic_point Unrelated- what do you think (or have heard from the company) mature gross/EBITDA margins are? I’m assuming the previous mgmt’s 60%+/10-15% are probably stale. Or waiting till June investor day for a real update?

@pekwat Of course. Whatever it actually means.

SHAK Hmm Skimming the presser, this has some ERP-overhaul adjacencies (read: the difficulty is always underestimated & generally tough for the stock) Conversely, based on the language, were they tracking to nicely beat sans the costs of this upgrade program?

@west4thstreet Hang on now. In RPAY’s defense- Failed shop of the co, aggressive bbk + delevering didn’t help the stock, co-founder left, CFO turnover, new cash bonuses… The only thing left* on their bingo card is big, dumb M&A (*Doing the hard thing & actually fixing the biz doesn’t count)

PWR Investor day decks are already too long as is- Polite request to IR teams not to pad them further w/ AI slop. (Unless this is 4D chess: AI image query >> create demand >> more work & $ for Quanta >> capitalize that $ at X multiple >> generate shareholder value)

Probably several SS notes w/ similar "GCC Rebuilding Winners" lists, but here's another (mostly US) following 2 min of research KBR's funny- theoretically both MTS (hardening work) & STS (gas, ammonia) segments/splitCos could/should benefit- Obvi the stock px/multiple disagrees

The other RocketCo The 8-K: Beck’s giving up his base & bonus ($1.8M) plus ~$24M in RSUs Asks to instead spend this $ on R&D How nice. The 13D: Beck will also be selling ~$300M of stock in a two week period starting late June

Yesway (YSWY) Refiled its S-1 Tough time to go public... Unless you're a value-oriented c-store (see MUSA stock MTD) that offers "destination" deep fried burritos (Eater: "one of the best gas station snacks in America") & has a quasi-cult following to the point that some people get tattoos of the store's logo Also- anemic store growth since they last disclosed unit numbers: 403 stores in June '21 >> 419 in December '25 (net of an in-process divesture of 29 locations) Apparently the plan now is to really accelerate growth & open 130 units over the next 5 years (ramping in '27, so ~30/yr) mostly thru a "build-to-suit" model + NNN So: 1) Can they pull this off (i.e., actually expand organically)? 2) A lease-first approach (at least for now!) is an interesting departure from their current majority-owned model (65% of units) & MUSA (~75% owned) + CASY (all) TLDR: I hope this doesn't trade day 1 with a silly CASY-level multiple

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@atelicinvest My goal is to find a CEO that knows his biz so well that he can explain it to me (an idiot) in such a clear, concise, & informative way that I now believe I know the biz better than him Then I can focus on what really matters: inventing narratives for 2% intraday stock px moves

MTN Vail typically provides an end of the season update in late April (as FY Q3 earnings aren't until early June) Given it's: - Katz's first April release as CEO since 2021 - This past season has been such a bust (weather) & is irrelevant for the stock - The pass offerings for the 2026/2027 season have seen the most meaningful change in years (mostly the young adult pass, but also first full yr of Friend passes, + a slightly lower px hike) & passes will have been on sale for ~7 weeks- *If* early pass sales are promising (read: less awful than the 2025/2026 on-mountain data), why not provide a bit more color/commentary/numbers around units, comparison to prior years, what products are resonating, etc. etc.? Turnarounds take time & seasonality makes progressive fixes even slower/harder to see. Added transparency & update frequency can offset this some. It's also just a presser w/o a call, meaning it's hardly a new obligation (unlike a formal KPI) & is something that's easy to simply not publish in subsequent years if/when the stock's not so depressed (& there are not calls for a breakup/asset sales)

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Danny Ocean @DannyOcean555

4 months ago

MTN Not quite the CableCo level of "we don't have customers, we have hostages"- But apparently not far off.

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CZR Does this put any Fertitta deal on ice?

CHEF Incrementally positive for Chef’s Warehouse if this: A Suggests SYY’s focus is (still) on sheer scale B. Ties up SYY’s attention, integration/M&A efforts, & balance sheet- preventing any sizable fine-dining deals or investments

@RyeNotBerben @atelicinvest They still have a bunch of FI calculators with front ends that are older than the average Perplexity user? OAS1? Also like half the mtge suite- built for a mkt that hasn’t existed since 2008.

ALIT Interesting very OTM comp package: Incentive comp tranches only begin vesting at a stock px ~3x higher than today's At the max achievement ($4.50/share), CEO stands to make >$31M Shareholders would also see an >8x in under 5 years so, uh, think they'd be pretty happy too. For context, this CEO started Jan 1, his comp package value w/ the stock px at the time (excl. sign on & 1 time bonuses) was ~$5.3M/yr (@ ~$2/share) ALIT's stock has since tanked, so his annual comp is now ~$3M (bad!) Point being this is A. meaningful $ for the CEO & B. even at the lowest end & longest time to vest, shareholders would do well (~25% 4.5yr IRR) Kicker: this also applies in a CiC scenario >> e.g., CEO sells for $2.25/share? That's ~$4M from this alone, & an all in $20M - 25M payday w/ accelerated vesting. The bad part? Literally everything else: 3x levered busted Foley deSPAC w/ revolving exec door + declining sales & EBITDA

MMED Tax free spin exemption period doesn’t expire until ~September ‘28 (2 yrs post split + 6mo for MDT’s planned full divestiture) But file this away as quite generous CiC severance agreement: 3x base & bonus + prorated “highest” bonus (& for all NEOs, not just CEO)