DeFi Rate @DeFiRate
Analytics resource for all things #DeFi and Prediction Markets defirate.com San Francisco, CA Joined July 2019-
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A Ninth Circuit panel appeared skeptical Friday of Kalshi’s argument that its federally regulated sports contracts can be offered on tribal lands without violating federal Indian gaming law, repeatedly pressing the company on why the markets should be treated differently from conventional sports betting. defirate.com/news/ninth-cir…
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has asked a federal court to intervene against state officials looking to enforce gambling and tax laws against prediction market exchanges. Even though counsel for the CFTC, DOJ, exchanges, and state government in Illinois are currently focused on the court in Chicago, the proceedings there won’t have as much significance until there is some kind of decision out of the US Supreme Court. Until then, the Northern District of Illinois’ and Seventh Circuit’s rulings will have a temporary effect on prediction market exchanges in the state at best. defirate.com/news/cftc-moti…
The U.S. servicemember accused of using government information to win more than $400,000 on Polymarket says the CFTC lacks authority because the contracts behind the trades were bets, not swaps 👇 defirate.com/news/cftcs-fir…
The Maine Senate race received bombshell news Monday, but prediction markets for Senate party winner have barely moved off Democrats. Kalshi and Polymarket still price Democrats at 56% and 57%, respectively, to win the seat. defirate.com/news/platners-…
CLARITY Act update 👀 ✅ House passed ✅ Senate Banking Committee passed ⏳ Full Senate vote next window opens after senators return July 13 Calendar's tight but the path to Trump's desk before August recess is very real. Buckle up
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price has been trading in the red since the start of the year, dropping from $96,000 to $58,000 at the start of July, with prediction markets speculating it will close at $64,000 by the end of the year. Analysts say the sell-off is not a rejection of Bitcoin itself, but a stress test of how much conviction was really behind the ETF era's institutional demand. defirate.com/news/bitcoin-d…
The central legal fight over sports prediction markets is widely expected to end at the U.S. Supreme Court. New Jersey has now made the first formal SCOTUS filing in that fight. Justice Samuel Alito gave New Jersey until Aug. 4 to seek Supreme Court review of Kalshi’s Third Circuit win, the first formal SCOTUS filing in the sports prediction market preemption fight defirate.com/news/sports-pr…
North Carolina becomes the third state to pass a prediction market tax. The tax drew pushback for surfacing in the budget conference report rather than as its own bill. Rep. Pricey Harrison said it legitimizes prediction market platforms while letting them skip the rules licensed sportsbooks face. Sen. Julie Mayfield questioned why sportsbooks pay 23% on gross revenue while prediction markets pay 6% on net. Sen. Michael Garrett warned operators will shift activity into prediction markets to dodge the higher tax and licensing fees. defirate.com/news/north-car…
Another record. @Kalshi surpassed $30B in trading volume for June.
DKeX is now live. DraftKings announced it has migrated DraftKings Predictions to its proprietary exchange platform, DKeX. defirate.com/news/draftking…
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is seeking public comment on another proposed rule for prediction markets, this time focused mostly on streamlining how regulated event contract exchanges report trading data. Tucked inside the proposal is a trader identification requirement. defirate.com/news/cftc-prop…
Prediction markets correctly called Alan Wilson’s South Carolina GOP governor runoff blowout, as he turned an initial primary deficit into a decisive win after Pamela Evette led round one. defirate.com/news/predictio…
The first prediction market bill to clear a committee vote split lawmakers over whether Congress should adopt a narrow ethics measure or a broader ban. The House Administration Committee voted 5-4 to report the Stop Lawmakers From Predicting Act favorably to the House after a brief but substantive debate over whether the proposal goes far enough. defirate.com/news/house-pan…
Meta and prediction markets? A points-based Arena app would let Meta test prediction markets as a social game before deciding whether to move deeper into real-money event contracts. It's Meta, so quite different from other free-to-play, but has that model ever hit? Or could this attract an audience that would have never thought about predictions in the first place? Story here defirate.com/news/meta-eyes…
Are prediction markets building their own financial ecosystem? There is growing interest from institutional players and fintech platforms. Thanks to Alvin Kan (@BitgetWallet ), Alexander Briggs (SuperTrader) and Charles Farrell (Dentons US LLP) for sharing their perspectives on how prediction markets are more than a niche curiosity. defirate.com/news/are-predi…
🚨 Kalshi has already surpassed $7.49 billion in notional volume for the week of June 15, surpassing its prior record of $6.38B with Sunday’s session still open to the Spain matchup. The partial total is now running 17.5% above the previous record and could put @Kalshi on track for its first $8B week. defirate.com/news/kalshi-to…
CME Group sued the CFTC over its approval of crypto perpetual futures, arguing the contracts should be regulated as swaps. DeFi Rate spoke with @JohnLothian, a media executive and commodity trading veteran, about why he believes the agency got the classification wrong, and why he thinks the real fix has to come from Congress, not the courts. defirate.com/news/cmes-laws…
Kalshi amended 'Leaving Office' contracts to account for death in office.
Update: Lawsuit filed.
CME Group is preparing to sue the CFTC over its approval of perpetual futures, arguing the agency violated Dodd-Frank by treating perps as futures rather than swaps—a fight intensified by Kalshi's newly approved crypto perps racking up $5.5 billion in volume in the first two
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