Debasement Capital @DebasementCap
Metals, Crypto, AI Infrastructure and Financials. Fiat Currency Debasement should be the biggest trade focus of your life. grokipedia.com/page/Debasemen… Joined September 2012-
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@SaniExp Looks that way - Remember seeing a batch of that 33k moved into OTC desks with Galaxy, FalconX and Deribit.
@ToddJStockton @MelMattison1 Anyone that was saying this and not long equities lacked a fundamental understanding. Equities priced in fiat which is structurally being debased as a result of the above factors. All of this is bullish assets and bearish fiat
Hiking rates = Higher Deficit = Earlier QE/YCC = Higher Inflation Combine this with aging demographics and the resulting upward pressure on Medicare/Social Security In my view it’s inevitable that Bitcoin and Gold are going to be the best performing assets over a 5/10y horizon
In English: We’ve been issuing more short-term debt than usual, for reasons (a bit like using a credit card when no one will give you a 15-year HELOC at a good rate because they’re worried about getting paid back). Which means that if and when the Fed hikes rates, the rate
In English: We’ve been issuing more short-term debt than usual, for reasons (a bit like using a credit card when no one will give you a 15-year HELOC at a good rate because they’re worried about getting paid back). Which means that if and when the Fed hikes rates, the rate hikes hit debt service (essentially, actual interest the Treasury has to pay out) harder and faster, because more debt rolls over at the higher rates, and faster, than usual. And of course Treasury can’t pay that except by borrowing more. So hiking rates is a way of saying hiking the deficit, which is a way of saying hiking printing, which is a way of saying hiking inflation. Round and round it goes.
I’d defer to Harley’s view below. All I'll add is after nearly 3 yrs of shifting issuance to the front end to prevent a long end spike yrs ago (left), annual UST roll is now going exponential (right), which means raising rates 50 bps will be like throwing gasoline on a bondfire,
The financial risk aversion of Brits once again being highlighted in this YouGov poll. @Fink_Money won’t be a fan of these results!
If you had a choice between instantly receiving £50,000 or a 50% chance to win £1m, which would you pick? £50,000: 73% 50/50 chance of winning £1m: 21%
INTEL EXPECTS CAPITAL EXPENDITURES 'TO BE UP MEANINGFULLY' IN 2027 - CFO DAVID ZINSNER IN INTERVIEW
*INTEL PLANS TO RAISE CAPITAL EXPENDITURES FROM $18 BLN TO $20 BLN FOR 2026 - CFO DAVID ZINSNER IN INTERVIEW $INTC
*INTEL Q2 REVENUE $16.13 BLN VS IBES ESTIMATE $14.42 BLN *INTEL OUTLOOK Q3 ADJ EPS $0.38 VS IBES ESTIMATE $0.27 $INTC
No doubt @JaneStreetGroup involved here
Looking into this more there is def a correlation bt $BITO volume spikes and $IBIT price reversals up, which would seem to indicate the basis trade heating up given's BITO's explosive volume the past few weeks. Bc again, no regular investor is going to use BITO which charges
Another classic escalate to de-escalate move from Trump or something more? With the 10Y at 4.7 they've got limited room for manoeuvre at these levels. A TACO seems most likely over the next few days unless they're able to make a swift and decisive breakthrough via military ops
"I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it", Trump told me
*TRUMP SAYS HE'S "CLOSE" TO DECISION ON "MASSIVE ATTACK" AGAINST IRAN - AXIOS *TRUMP WARNS IRAN WILL FACE MAJOR PUNISHMENT FOR HOUTHI ATTACKS ON RED SEA SHIPPING
@LDNCryptoClub Agreed - Expect we see the line in the sand relatively soon with the 10Y pushing through 4.7 here. A penny for @SecScottBessent's thoughts currently...
US 10Y now through 4.67 with WTI approaching $90 Feels like we’re approaching a key juncture as far as the bond market is concerned.
No doubt Bessent keeping a close eye on yields here as the 10Y moves through 4.63 and WTI moves through $87 They are going to have to thread the eye of the needle if they want to satisfy their objectives in Iran whilst ensuring things don’t get disorderly in the bond market
Unusual activity in Bitcoin ETF markets 👀 ProShares ETF traded twice the volume of iShares IBIT. ProShares tracks CME Bitcoin futures, while IBIT holds actual spot BTC.
Weird.. $BITO is 6th most traded ETF today. And in July it's traded $40b vs $20b for the Mighty IBIT. Very unusual given IBIT dwarfed it at one point bc ETF invs much prefer spot to futures when given choice. Basis trade can't explain it, could be some other arb tho?
*GOOGL RAISES 2026 CAPEX GUIDANCE FROM $180-190B TO $195-205B *GOOGL CLOUD BACKLOG +10% Q/Q TO $514B "Given the supply constraint environment, we plan to expand the use of third party capacity in Q3 as a bridging strategy while we build out more internal capacity."
ON THE CALL: "We continue to be supply constrained."
@_tm3k @blknoiz06 Done it for you here: x.com/DebasementCap/…
@blknoiz06 Not sure I'd be suggesting $SOL has relative strength at the moment looking at the month to date underperforming both $BTC and $ETH
@PuntingArrows @blknoiz06 Fairly criminal to not mention ETH when referring to "relative strength" at the moment but it's par for the course as far as @blknoiz06 is concerned. Not sure what KOL/token deals he's got with SOL/PUMP etc but they must be good!
MTD $ETH relative strength:
The real relative strength we are seeing is in $ETH (which has a productive institutional use case unlike $SOL) If Clarity Act is passed (big if still imo) suspect ETH will be the biggest beneficiary
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