David Andrews @DrewsBTC

On the Yen, Swap Lines, and the Noise Machine Given the level of absurdity circulating on X about the yen situation, a few facts are in order. The Fed and the Bank of Japan have had a swap line for years. It is not new, it is not an emergency invention, and it is certainly not a bailout cooked up last week. The Fed maintains standing swap lines with five central banks: the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank, and the Swiss National Bank. These have been permanent since October 31, 2013. Not everyone gets one. Guess who doesn’t. (Yes the 3D Chess Grand Master) These lines exist to provide $ liquidity to when needed. That is precisely what the central bank of the global reserve currency is supposed to do. Like it or not, this is the system we live in. If it weren’t, and we lived in the fantasy of a gold backed world, two things would be true. First, global growth would have been severely constrained. Second, in a liquidity crunch there would be no entity capable of supplying liquidity to the system, unless the plan is to send every tractor on the planet to dig for gold on demand. And here is the part the doom crowd keeps missing. When you hold the global reserve currency as a reserve, you do not hold cash. You hold that country’s Treasuries. Say what you want about them, but they remain the most pristine collateral in the world we actually inhabit, not the one people imagine on a podcast. So if you believe US Treasuries are no longer worth what they were and that a doom spiral is upon us, think carefully about what that world looks like. In that scenario, no asset holds its value. Not even gold. Because in a true scramble for liquidity, everyone sells whatever they can to survive and fight another day. The safe haven trade dies alongside everything else. Which brings me to the final point. Everyone on X seems convinced they have figured out something that 160 PhDs at the FED and a Treasury Secretary who understands capital markets better than almost anyone alive, having worked alongside the greatest macro minds of the past century, somehow all missed. That is, at best, hubris. At worst, stupidity.

@mnicoletos @SantiagoAuFund If I could 10x likes, I would take it to 11.

One of the highlights of the Warsh Fed has been watching stenographers posing as journalists, like the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos, reduced to reporting Fed backroom gossip because they’re incapable of performing real economic or monetary policy analysis without being spoon-fed.

@SantiagoAuFund I have watched/listened to Brent since before COVID. When banks and important global multinationals start backing away from the $, I will pay attention. Otherwise, it is just noise. Governments are not, and never will be, the signal!!

England 1 - 0 Argentina 😱 TN newsroom in stunned silence.

@webberweather Here's the ECMWF snowfall outlook that updated yesterday -- snowy look for the Rockies and Appalachians in November/December. bennollweather.s3.amazonaws.com/copernicus_ima…

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@SantiagoAuFund Done it several times during a 7-day fast. It is a great way to “reformat the hard drive”

@SantiagoAuFund Everything is relative…if you find something that is not, you aren’t looking hard enough. It doesn’t make life easier, but it does make it more sensible.

I retired from Evercore so I can use my name now. I don’t have followers and don’t care. Just know, if I repost/like something, it is because it made me laugh or I think it’s important. I spend my Twitter life continuously trying not to be triggered, which is why Brent and Lyn are my favorite follows.

#NewProfilePic

@LawrenceLepard @LynAldenContact Something something train 🚂

@profplum99 Holy crap! I remember when he got in. Time speeding up as you get older is cruel.

He’s dead on.

@SantiagoAuFund Just setting us up!

@SantiagoAuFund You are being cynical. They are just coordinating using coded messages with China, India and South Africa to drop the $ hammer.

There's never been an investment like the investment in railroads. (This graph has a log scale!)

🧵BOOK 1: Here begins what stands to be an enduring thread setting out the researches of Izabella Kaminska of Ealing, which she publishes, in the hope of thereby preserving from decay the remembrance of what men have done, and of preventing the great and wonderful actions of the Americans and the Persians from losing their due meed of glory; and withal to put on record what were their grounds of feud. For it has seemed to me that the deeds of men in our time are no less worthy of remembrance than those of old; yet they are in greater danger of being misunderstood. For where once stories passed from mouth to mouth and were shaped by memory, now they are multiplied without number via the socials, so that truth is scattered among many voices, and the loudest are not always the most faithful. And I have observed that when events are nearest to us, men speak of them not as inquirers, but as partisans — each praising his own side and condemning the other, so that the causes of things are hidden beneath anger and fear. In such a time, even those who wish to know are carried along by the current of opinion, and seldom pause to ask what has truly happened, and why. Therefore I have resolved to write of these matters in the manner of an ancient literary hero, gathering accounts from many sources and from what is said among different peoples, so that the great and troubling deeds of our age may not fade into confusion, nor be remembered only as each side would have them. For it is my belief that by setting these things at a distance — by treating them as one might treat the wars of former times — they may be seen more clearly, as objects appear more distinct when viewed from afar than when pressed close before the eyes. And so I undertake this work: not to declare what is certainly true in all respects, for that belongs to the gods alone, but to preserve what is said, to examine what seems likely, and to give an account that may endure beyond the noise of the present moment.

@LynAldenContact Mistake that many make is that Tbills are a yield product only. Once you see it as perfected collateral, it paints a different story. (Go check out growth of Tether/stablecoins and tell me only yields drive demand).

Two topics that get 100x more airtime than they deserve on fintwit: 1) Trillions in Tbills constantly maturing and getting bought again by the same balance sheets that hold them now. 2) The Treasury issuing some on-the-run debt to buy back some of its own off-the-run debt.

Roberto Rios @peruvian_bull

4 months ago

$8T of debt is rolling over this year, dwarfing anything coming in the next decade

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This is the best part from Pierre Poilievre appearance on the Diary of a CEO podcast; "Those who push a socialist ideology have a gross contradiction in their view of human nature. They say that human beings are wretched, self-interested, greedy when they’re in the private voluntary economy, but they’re angels when they’re in the governmental economy. They argue that the government should just control everything because then we have all these angels that will decide for us." 🎯