US treasury yields
20/30 year looks headed higher, probably soon, since it's compressing within its consolidation pattern and making higher lows.
Fibs and measured moves align. 7.4%, then 16.4% for the 30 year. 1970s all over again, in a way.
TLT puts look good here. Will add on the confirmed breakdown of the long-term horizontal support there around 83. I like 85 strike puts and 85/75 put spread with the dec 2028 expiration date. Equal dollars to each part of the trade to flatten out theta curve.
$tlt
DXY, EURO, YEN
The US dollar looks like it's headed higher, towards the box noted. Caution with metals/miners still.
At the same time, the Euro may be back testing the massive 18-year descending triangle that it broke out of. In the longer term the Euro looks pretty bullish relative to the dollar.
Yen is losing again the dollar, probably hitting a target or at least stalling out at the top of the channel shown. Timewise that works out to be November/December of this year. Will be interesting to see if the BOJ intervenes at around that time/level.
$dxy $eurousd $usdjpy
COP (Conoco)
Breaking out of bull wedge on the weekly. Big upside, probably to top of the longterm broadening channel, if that box range breakout and the trend continues up.
$cop
NetEase
China's leading online gaming company with growing global game development.
Price recently made a good pivot here on a confluence of support, back testing the triangle that it broke out from as well as the bottom of a large parallel channel. Stop loss here, with the take profit at the measuring move and Fibonacci confluences around 295.
$ntes
Baidu
China's leading search engine and AI company, focused on autonomous driving and cloud (AKA Chinese Google).
On the monthly, we can see a big broadening channel, a breakout passed downsloping resistance, then a rejection and current consolidation under horizontal resistance.
Zooming in on the weekly, we can see that price just bounced off a confluence of support (an arc, a gap fill, and the bottom line of a broadening channel). A stop below this pivot would be reasonable, with a take profit at the Fibonacci measured move and the horizontal resistance at the top of the arc at about 180.
$baidu
PDD
China's value-focused e-commerce leader, operating Pinduoduo and Temu.
Recent bounce off a good confluence of support. Currently trading in a broadening channel within a very large triangle. Can you use this as a pivot to set a stop loss with a take profit at the top of the triangle/broadening channel. Can also wait for a breakout over the orange downsloping resistance line.
$pdd
Tencent
China's largest publicly traded company.
Price is in a large broadening wedge. It failed to make a higher high this last run up. Would like to see price trade above the down sloping purple resistance line, and definitely stay within the large broadening channel.
Possibly just made a pivot low on a light blue support line and 3-yr MA, and Fibonacci levels would line up with the all-time high as the measured move. Not a bad buy here, with the stop loss noted. The 3-yr MA has been strong support before. If it falls out of that big channel though, it could crash, so actually set a hard stop.
Oddly, and probably without correlation, the chart looks similar, and probably without meaningful correlation, to bitcoin's chart.
#tencent
ChiNext index (tech)
Price broke out of a 10-year symmetrical triangle, hitting the top of a long-term parallel channel. Currently seeing a retrace/backtest, after a touch at the top of the channel and measured move Fibonacci level were hit. And measured move from the symmetrical triangle, plus a Fibonacci confluence, puts a long-term price target at 3x current levels. First, have to break out of that parallel channel. Probably worth looking for a fuller retrace towards the triangle, with a clear consolidation pattern to break out of again.
Positively, ChiNext is bouncing off the bottom of a long-term descending wedge versus the NASDAQ. Look for some near-term out performance, especially on a breakout past the purple line and, even more so, if there's a real breakout above the white upper boundary of the large descending wedge.
Versus gold, the ChiNext is just peeking out over down slipping resistance (3-year line).
#chinext $gld $ixic $qqq
SSE composite (China)
Currently consolidating at the top of a massive 20 year triangle. Price broke out and then retraced back within a 10-year parallel channel. Loss of support on the purple line without breaking out of the triangle isn't super promising, but not necessarily bearish yet. Watching for a breakout of the triangle, but if price ever made a pivot again at the bottom of the triangle, that would likely be a generational buying opportunity.
Zooming on the weekly, price is more constructive. A couple broadening wedges define price, with a recent bounce off the lows of the current wedge. Again, could be setting up for a violent move in either direction. Not immediately bearish unless the current wedge fails.
Against the spx, the SSE index is currently trading in a massive 20-year descending wedge, currently compressing in a smaller descending wedge within that. A breakout from either wedge, especially the bigger wedge, would be positive for Chinese equities in general.
Somewhat similarly, versus gold, the SSE index is trading in a 20-year descending broadening channel, while currently trading in a smaller descending broadening channel inside the bigger one. Recently pivoted off the bottom of the smaller channel, so may see some more upside for Chinese equities versus gold for a while. Again, a breakout of the big white broadening channel would be major
#sse $gld $spx $spy
BYD
China's largest EV company. Gapping above resistance after making a pivot low in a big broadening channel.
Stop below pivot, sell at top of the channel.
#BYD
Water infrastructure ETFs
FIW and PHO looking similar here, consolidation after an impulse move up in a rising wedge, within a very large broadening channel. There's a breakout on the weekly within each channel, signaling a pivot low.
Stops below the recent pivot lows. Good R/R, look to sell at measured moves or a hit of the big broadening wedge.
$fiw $pho
Oil refiners
A few companies from the CRAK ETF that still seem to have pretty good risk to reward. MOL and OMV are probably the two best. All about 3 or 4 to 1 R:R. These are monthly charts and longer-term plays.
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