Ed Kaim @EdKaim
Founder @Quantcha. Currently focused on the future of options, prediction markets, and what's next in investing. predictions.qwidgets.com Redmond, WA Joined July 2009-
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The problem is that you can make a plausible argument about hedging in so many domains. For example, Kalshi markets to the sports contract firms teams use to insure against bonuses for things like MVP awards. They would legitimately use these markets for price discovery and to derisk. There's a whole industry around this stuff and nobody would bat an eye if it wasn't simultaneously sports gambling. I think your article makes some good points, but you don't mention the major one: taxes. The dominant reason there's pushback against prediction markets being federally regulated is because it gives sportsbooks and casinos a path to run exchanges to completely avoid their state tax liability. States like NY take 51% off the top and are desperate to retain that revenue.
Definitely agree on the backward-engineered take. I think that's what kept the rules from coming out clean. Legit finance just wants the CFTC to stop optimizing around the degen crowd and clear a path for serious hedging money. Bad press from someone bragging about a $75 "will the US bomb Iran" bet is inevitable. But entire industries genuinely need to hedge conflict outcomes. They do it today through bespoke private deals, so why not widen that into a real liquidity pool?
@BrentScher @Kalshi Maybe, but you don’t know how much of that market is volume hedging against other Pratt markets that might be trading with higher premium.
@pitdesi It's obnoxious. Nobody wants to look at the view and see ads.
@eigenrobot I don’t know if I want to live in a world where companies take advantage of naive university students who want to bet on how other companies bet on pretend internet money.
@The_Kyle_Mann But how exactly would Han even dodge it? By moving his head a quarter inch to the right while the shot is three feet to his left? That doesn’t make any sense.
@NathanpmYoung In the Seattle area I still occasionally see people driving by themselves with masks on.
@thenarrator I recently wrote up a potential solution for creating this demand. x.com/EdKaim/status/…
@thenarrator The insurer opportunity isn't shifting to sell insurance via event contracts, but to derisk their book. They won't do that until there's a critical mass of investors willing to absorb that risk. Leveraging 100% towards sports gambling will keep that from happening.
Finally, the everyman can affordably hedge his Warhol collection. But act quickly—that $540 of upside across the entire order book won't be available at the low price of $6,690 for long. But, in fairness, it has to start somewhere.
@origoinvest And here's one about the importance of consolidated clearing to drive real liquidity participation and traditional broker adoption. x.com/EdKaim/status/…
@origoinvest It recently wrote about the need to make them more accessible to retail at scale, and I don't think it's direct investment. x.com/EdKaim/status/…
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