Election Poll @ElectionPoll
EP is a weekly online poll on an electoral / candidate basis for the Fed ,State & local elections. Think Tank headed by Daniel Prasad provides policy advice. electionpoll.com.au Australia Joined April 2013-
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Senate Projections by electionpoll modelling. Grns to hold balance of power (Libs/Nat/LNQ 15, Lab 14, Grns 6, KAP1, PUP 1, 3)
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Final Predicted seats outcome. Libs 59,LNP 14, Nats 10 ( Coalition 83) ALP 57, Grns 1, Ind 2, KAP 2, PUP 5.
FINAL Primary POLL votes %: Libs 28.2 ,LNP 10.6 ,Nat 4.1 ( Coalition 42.9), ALP 35.3, Greens 10.3, PUP 7.9 , KAP 2.6, Ind & Others2.0
FINAL VOTER POLL Results as of COB 6th Sept. 2PP Coalition 51.1 % ,ALP 48.9 %. Margin of error = 2.3 %.
Snap poll.Small sample but delay & lack of details on costings and budget cuts is key concern and will shift votes away from Libs/Nat.
EP will be recommending which party and candidates to vote for as part of its editorial to its 1m+ members/audience on Friday.
Exit polls from 48 exit booths in metro cities for prepolls suggest trend to micro & minor parties. Flow of preferences key.
2 ways forecasting may impact on outcomes. Inclusion of undecided voters N shift from 1party 2 another. Shifts create 2x the impact .
Not 1 forecaster in last 6yrs has got any call on any issue correct on a consistent basis. ELECTION POLLING this time around more difficult
Mainstream media appear to have misread electorate on key issues and variations in voter intentions on such matters.
2.3m prepoll & postal votes already & over 2m undecided ? . Interesting situation for eventual outcomes. Social media may hold the key
Some shift in voter intentions are emerging. Which way ? 1st cutoff on daily polling at 5pm today. Average now replaced by trend.
EP reports 19.3 % of electorate is undecided, high as 26% in most marginal seats. Unprecedented for any election at this point in time.
EP predicts 143 out of 150 seats on Sat will be decided by preferences. Results based on latest voter intentions taken on 1/9/13.
EP think tank predicts unstable period of Govt if Lib/Nats win irrespective of margin of win. Probable double dissolution w/in 3-6 mths.
Election will be decided on outcomes in Qld & Tas. Far from done & dusted. Undecided now the key . Don't underestimate minor party outcomes.
Latest Poll result 1/9/13. Coalition 73, ALP 68, KAP 4,PUP 2, Grn1, Ind 2. Another minority Govt or back to polls or double dissoultion?.
@brucehawker2010 Electorate want new & big policy for now & real from ALP as per latest survey. Consider Small Business & Cost of Living
Critical mistake by ALP in creating costing confusion of Lib policies. This WILL hurt. Gift to Libs/Nat.
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