EmergingMarketWatch @EmergingMWatch

#Brazil - Industrial production rises by below-consensus 0.2% y/y in May - Output growth slows from 2.7% y/y in Apr to miss consensus for 1.3% increase - Output falls 0.2% m/m in May in first decline in 2026 and misses consensus for 0.3% increase emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Kyrgyzstan - Credit growth eases to 43.8% y/y in May - FX lending growth higher, local-currency segment offsets impact - Household lending growth moderates again, corporate credit growth increases - Deposit growth decelerates on reduction in corporate segment emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#UnitedArabEmirates - PMI falls to 50.8 in June - New business growth remains below the historical average - Companies reduce staff levels - Non-oil businesses remain optimistic about next 12 months emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Senegal - Central administration debt rises to XOF 26tn at end-Q1 - Increase driven almost entirely by domestic debt - Short-term debt rises sharply amid funding pressures, albeit retaining small share in overall stock - Sharp rise in short-term debt highlights funding pressures - Central admin. debt stock stands at 116% of GDP at end-2025, could go down to 100% after rebasing - Broader public-sector debt burden, including SOE liabilities and domestic arrears, is higher - IMF-required debt reviews keep final debt picture uncertain emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

Indonesia's government just told parliament it expects the economy to grow 5.8-6.5% in 2027. Back in 2024, President Prabowo Subianto was promising 8%. The 2027 Macroeconomic Framework, approved this week by the cabinet and parliament, sets GDP growth at 5.8-6.5%, up from the 5.4% penciled in for 2026. Inflation is seen at 1.5-3.5%, within Bank Indonesia's target band. The rupiah is projected to strengthen to 16,800-17,500 per dollar, from around 17,900-18,000 now. The 10-year bond yield is seen at 6.5-7.3%, and unemployment at 4.3-4.9%. The numbers largely repeat what Prabowo announced on May 20. We think the growth and rupiah targets are the weak links. S&P's own June forecast puts Indonesian GDP growth at just 5.1% in 2026, easing to 4.9% in 2027-28 and 4.8% by 2029, well below the government's own range. Public spending drove much of Indonesia's growth in Q1 2026, and that support is set to fade as Jakarta tries to keep the budget deficit under 3% of GDP. That fiscal squeeze is already visible. Rising deficits in the first 5 months of the year have pushed the government to consider cutting recipients of its free school meal program to 49mn from 62.5mn. That's a tough trade-off for an administration that built its political brand on an 8% growth pledge and welfare spending. The rupiah faces its own uphill climb. It's down more than 6% this year and hit a record low in June, forcing Bank Indonesia into a surprise rate hike and a cumulative 100 basis points of tightening in 2026. Bond yields hit 7.47% earlier this month, the highest since late 2022, before easing to 7.12%. Foreign investors did return in June, buying a net USD 1.2bn of local bonds, the best month in over a year. But we don't see 5% appreciation to the government's target range happening without a sustained rebound in inflows to both bonds and equities. There's also an unresolved overhang. MSCI pushed back its review of Indonesia's emerging-market status to November, after flagging concerns over ownership transparency and free float. A downgrade to frontier status would trigger passive outflows that Goldman Sachs estimates could reach USD 13bn, adding more pressure on the rupiah just as the government needs the opposite. Our base case is that Bank Indonesia holds rates through the rest of 2026 and starts easing only once the rupiah stabilizes and MSCI's November verdict is out. Growth will probably land closer to 5% than 6% unless fiscal spending picks up again, which would in turn complicate the deficit target. Watch the November MSCI decision, the pace of bond inflows, and whether the free meal program cuts actually go through. All 3 will tell us more about 2027 than the framework itself. #indonesia #fiscalpolicy #emergingmarkets

#Vietnam - CPI inflation decelerates to 4.7% y/y in June - Transport prices slow down to 5.3% y/y growth - CPI inflation averages 4.4% in Jan-Jun, below SBV's 4.5% target emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Pakistan - Goods trade deficit jumps 57.1% y/y to four-year high of USD 4.53bn in June - Imports rise as oil shipments rebound after May dip - FY26 trade deficit widens 21.6% y/y on weaker exports, higher imports - External sector remains resilient, aided by strong remittances, loan inflows emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Chile - Fiscal deficit worsens to 2.4% GDP in May (12m rolling) on Tax Day refunds - Deficit year-to-date hits 0.6% of GDP in May, down from 0.8% in May 2025 emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Albania - Bank of Albania keeps key rate at 2.5% as inflation rises temporarily - CPI inflation up to 2.9% in April-May (from 2.5% in Q1), driven by fuel, unprocessed food and some energy‑intensive services - Economy expands by 3.7% in Q1 2026, led by services and construction, while agriculture and industry contract - Labour market improves, non‑agricultural private employment rises by 2.2%, average wages go up by 11.5%, wage pressures not yet fully reflected in inflation - BoA expects temporary H2 overshoot of inflation from energy prices, with risks tilted up for inflation and down for growth emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Egypt - Foreign funds buy USD 8.9bn worth of bonds/T-bills on EGX in June (net) - Both non-Arab and Arab funds stepped up purchases attracted by high yields, easing regional insecurity - Foreign investors held USD 54bn worth of T-bills as of end-January, but this includes USD 25bn pledged as collateral - Pound depreciated sharply in March, but has regained most of its losses since then on portfolio, remittance inflows emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Ukraine - State budget gap narrows marginally y/y to UAH 408bn in Jan-May - Revenue up 20%, expenditure up 14% y/y - Defence spending up 11%, social spending up 13% - Foreign grants grow, borrowing plunges emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Uzbekistan - Gross external debt increases to USD 89.9bn in 1Q26 - This represents 56.6% of GDP emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#India - Centre's fiscal deficit widens over 12-fold y/y to INR 1.6tn in Apr-May FY27 - Record RBI dividend boosts non-tax revenue - Higher subsidies and front-loaded spending keep expenditure elevated emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Ethiopia - IMF completes fifth ECF review, unlocking USD 464mn - Fund says reforms continue to deliver strong macroeconomic outcomes despite Middle East war shock - Rephasing brings forward USD 200mn to cushion higher fuel import costs, with total disbursements reaching USD 2.65bn - Reserves projected at 2.1 months of imports, GDP growth at 9.2%, inflation at 11.7%, current account deficit at 2.5% of GDP in FY25/26 - IMF welcomes progress on official and commercial debt restructuring, including agreement-in-principle with Eurobond holders emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Tajikistan - Industrial output grows by 13% y/y in May driven by manufacturing - Manufacturing is up 22.6% y/y, extraction remains in red zone - We expect to see further improvement in June emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Peru - CPI inflation in Lima rises to 4.01% y/y in June, remains above range - CPI inflation comes in above 3.81% y/y consensus expectations - Prices rise 0.23% m/m, driven mainly by higher food, restaurant and services prices, while transportation prices fall m/m in line with lower global oil prices - Inflation is still likely to remain above the 1.0%-3.0% target range this year, with the BCRP forecasting a return to target early next year emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Thailand - Transfer income, services drive current account surplus in Q1 - In y/y comparison, decline in CA surplus driven by goods, services and transfer income accounts - Merchandise imports grow faster than exports - Net outflow of financial account narrows by 77.4% y/y emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Ghana - Inflation accelerates to 5.2% y/y in June - Food inflation picks up to 3.9% y/y, non-food to 6.3% y/y - Faster increase in transport and food prices is largely due to low base in 2025 - Central bank left rate on hold in May but governor recently said inflation outlook has improved - Next MPC meeting will be held later this month and might see resumption of easing cycle emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#Tajikistan - World Bank approves USD 300mn grant for second stage of Rogun project - The project faces environmental concerns and demand-side risks from regional partners emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets

#ElSalvador - Current accounts deficit narrows to USD 610.4mn in Q1 - Goods balance stays negative, while the services surplus slows - Remittances remain at USD 2.4bn - Net FDI remains negative in Q1 emergingmarketwatch.com/browser #EmergingMarkets