François Geerolf #EN @FGeerolf
Economist at Sciences Po-OFCE, former @UCLA. Research Affiliate @cepr_org. econ.ucla.edu/fgeerolf/ Paris, France Joined August 2009-
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"When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure"⤵️
It's actually not possible to drive a truck from Germany to Kyrgyzstan without passing through Russia. So no surprise that much of what Germany says gets exported to Kyrgyzstan (black) never actually arrives there (blue). Kyrgyzstan is just what it says on the export invoice...
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François Geerolf #EN retweeted
Europe 🇪🇺 is way behind in tech 💻
François Geerolf #EN retweeted
There has been a quiet uptick in Russian gas imports since Q3 2023. The Europeans are circumventing their own sanctions.
François Geerolf #EN retweeted
Prediction does not imply understanding. But does understanding imply prediction? That seems to be an implication of falsifiable theories.
François Geerolf #EN retweeted
Germany’s growth outlook is worst of all OECD countries except for Milei’s Argentina. The energy shock has been downplayed by prominent economists. It is now eroding the industrial core. Add fiscal tightening and you have the perfect storm.
François Geerolf #EN retweeted
This is German industrial production. The reason Germany avoided recession in 2022, when Russia first invaded Ukraine, is luck: supply chains started working again, giving a one-off boost to car production. That's over and now there is contraction with no end in sight...
François Geerolf #EN retweeted
what is the point of these models?x.com/NicolasGoetzma…
ECB - Estimates of R* for the euro area "While estimates of euro area r* vary widely across a suite of models, the median estimate has risen by about 30 basis points compared with levels prevailing in mid-2019, before the onset of the pandemic" ecb.europa.eu/pub/economic-b…
François Geerolf #EN retweeted
CHART OF THE DAY: The end of the German industrial might. Industrial output fell across the board in Dec, with a sharp drop in the energy-intensive sector (red line). Annual data now shows that German chemical production plunged to a 28-year low. ICYMY: bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
True. But if one takes a longer perspective, it becomes perhaps a bit less impressive...
Notable that there are more manufacturing jobs than at any point under Trump.
François Geerolf #EN retweeted
There's a long history of people (Andrew Mellon during Great Depression) who thought liquidationism* was the path to dynamism. If anything, the opposite. The GFC, for example, led to a demise in dynamism, which only recovered after running the economy hot following Covid.
We're in the midst of a historic rise in dynamism in the US economy, with new business creation showing a major upturn. For more:whitehouse.gov/cea/written-ma…
€ area household saving rate down over the quarter, but still up since before Covid-19, especially in 🇫🇷 and 🇩🇪.
Euro area household saving rate down to 14.0% and business profit share decreases to 40.2% in Q3 2023 ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/we…
François Geerolf #EN retweeted
Now that we have CPI, we have real wages for end-2023; Arin Dube has done the math. Up substantially, both over the year and relative to pre-pandemic, for most workers 1/
François Geerolf #EN retweeted
Best universities in the world, 2024. 1. 🇺🇸 MIT 2. 🇬🇧 Cambridge 3. 🇬🇧 Oxford 4. 🇺🇸 Harvard 5. 🇺🇸 Stanford 6. 🇬🇧 Imperial College London 7. 🇨🇭 ETH Zurich 8. 🇸🇬 National University of Singapore 9. 🇬🇧 UCL 10. 🇺🇸 University of California, Berkeley (QS World Uni Rankings)
François Geerolf #EN retweeted
Which is greater 1000¹⁰⁰¹ or 1001¹⁰⁰⁰?
François Geerolf #EN retweeted
Given that everyone knows that BLS shelter indexes lag far behind market rents, surprising that we don't hear more about HICP, which excludes owners' equivalent rent. It's been saying for a while that inflation is under control
François Geerolf #EN retweeted
The Phillips Curve
François Geerolf #EN retweeted
54% of French 18- to 24-year-olds would be tempted to move to another country due to the political/economic situation (and 30% of the population overall) Places they fancy emigrating to: Canada, America, Germany.
François Geerolf #EN retweeted
“Most people think the Federal Reserve is a national forest out West.” ~ Alan Blinder, former Vice Chair Fed. Agree.
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