FLAY @FlyMJT
Investor DM for inquiries verse Joined August 2014-
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@stable @pendle_fi 这个orderbook的样子，其实说明市场认可“这个池子能赚”，但还没一致认可“什么时候、以什么路径、能不能全额拿到”。买盘区间的量其实不小，几十万 YT 的单子在 115%~123% 那里躺着，这说明这不是没人理解这个产品，而是大家都在等一个更合理的risk-adjusted entry
刚看了下 Stable USDT Pre-Deposit (ctStableUSDT) 的现货：差不多在 1.12~1.14 USDT 这个区间成交，等于说市场给了它 ≈11%~13% 的溢价。 问题来了：yt是 2025-11-20 到期，只剩21天，pendle 写的年化是 57.68%。那21天到底能赚多少呢？@stable @pendle_fi
@stable @pendle_fi 为什么会这样？ (1) 时间不确定：资金要等Stable链上线后才能真正withdraw成USDT，时间价值没完全进价格 (2) 兑现路径不确定：是链上redeem、还是要走router、还是有gas & route成本，大家都在打折 (3) 做市还在早期：现在这个orderbook看上去更像“有人挂在那等新人”，而不是“被套利者压平过的价格”
@stable @pendle_fi 而只要 PT 继续维持在这种“接近成熟债”的估值上，而 YT 还是“高折价预期票”，中间的差就能做结构性多空（long YT / short PT 或者靠池子做delta-neutral）
@stable @pendle_fi 那有什么机会？ 如果你相信Concrete/Stable能按时上线+收益能按面跑，那现在的YT买盘价就是在送杠杆：你付的是“打折后的收益”，拿的是“全额收益”； 如果你不信时间，你就会更愿意做PT，因为PT至少能看到1:1的名义回收；
@stable @pendle_fi yt现在的orderbook 是按照年化150%摆买盘，300%左右摆卖盘，分歧巨大，翻译一下就是有人愿意以10%的溢价继续加杠杆，卖方认为不到20%不够看
#10YearsofEtherscan and optionally tag @etherscan. We'll repost standout stories throughout August!
@0xblanker @RobinhoodApp @Uniswap 大概有意识的rug走了30w u，并且每次rug都害怕被发现似的立即转账走人，可以说非常的没有底线
arbiscan.io/token/0xf5e035… spacex的股票开卖了，定价5000亿刀市值，贵不贵见仁见智了 #robinhood #spacex
BNB没有打新和质押，早崩了，所以你刨除一下bnb的打新收益，还值多少？币安给BNB输了太多血了，这两年。本质上每次launchpool都是bnb大户的退出，币安卖了，BNB崩了，新项目方才有动力去造势，牛市来了
@temporal_xyz Wanna try a bit, how can I get access?
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