Four Filters @FourFilters
Public equity investor. Joined October 2015-
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Momentum has been notably choppy following sharpest 2 month SPX return since the 1970 (scaled for vol), per GS: "Volatile market rotations during the past week continued to follow the pattern of the sharpest Momentum rallies in recent decades. Before the sell-off that started two weeks ago, a narrow-breadth Momentum rally had driven the sharpest two-month S&P 500 return since 1971, when scaled relative to volatility. Following similarly sharp rallies in the past, the Momentum factor has usually struggled during the subsequent few months. In addition to the historical precedent, the current market characteristics of elevated trading leverage, still-narrow market breadth, and uncertainty about both the macro outlook and the AI build-out suggest volatility will persist."
S&P GLOBAL $SPGI : Bernstein 42nd Annual Strategic Decisions Conference La dirección dejó mensajes muy potentes: • 8T$ de deuda vencen hasta 2028, creando un maturity wall históricamente alto para Ratings. • La emisión Investment Grade sigue muy fuerte incluso excluyendo hyperscalers. • Además, ya empiezan a reaparecer operaciones grandes de M&A. Hace 5 años, incluso la propia CEO pensaban que modelos como Snowflake, Databricks o los frontier LLMs podrían desintermediar Market Intelligence. La compañía viene a decir lo contrario: cuanto más complejo es el ecosistema de datos, más valor tiene una fuente trusted. De hecho, comentaron el caso de un gran banco que probó un frontier model en sandbox y tuvo que apagarlo rápidamente en producción porque no podían confiar en el output. En mercados financieros regulados, una respuesta rápida pero incorrecta no sirve. El coste del error es enorme. El cliente necesita confiar en el dato y la responsabilidad reputacional acaba recayendo sobre S&P, no sobre el LLM. Además: • La mayoría de su IP ni siquiera es pública. • Los clientes quieren respuestas “de S&P”. • Y muchos seguirán usando workflows dentro de Cap IQ y las plataformas propietarias, simplemente con IA integrada encima. El mercado probablemente sobreestima cuánto riesgo real tiene aquí el modelo seat-based: • Cap IQ Pro es <6% de ingresos del grupo. • Y solo ~20% de Market Intelligence sigue dependiendo de licencias por asiento. La IA probablemente cambie la interfaz. Pero no necesariamente destruye el moat si sigues controlando el dato, el workflow y la confianza del cliente. Y sinceramente, cuanto más escucho a management hablar del tema, más me parece que S&P puede terminar siendo uno de los grandes “AI enablers” del sector financiero, no una víctima de la IA.
Institutional LPs and HNW LPs often evaluate venture managers very differently. The differences go far beyond check size. 🧵 ⬇️
A look inside $TSM Arizona fab. TSMC AZ (like almost all fabs) is highly automated and is the pinnacle of manufacturing efficiency and accuracy.
#BestOf2024 Quotes Druckenmiller's advice to young people getting into finance: "if they're going in it for the money, they should go elsewhere. There's too many people in the business like me that just love the game and the passion...they're not going to be able to outwork the people that are passionate in the game. And it's not a fun game. If you're losing, it's horrible
@compound248 @skhetpal 21% is return of their long investments, L/S fund CAGR is 13%, according to this article: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
From 10 Blue links to Intent Search $GOOGL new strategy to monetize Search improving by the minute 👀
Just had my first $GOOGL AI search experience where they nailed it (meaning both good AI search results for me, and good monetization results for their business). Searched for best way to splice an underground wire. It showed me various techniques. I clicked on the link for
A few thoughts on my mind as I prepare for the coming week. - The goal isn't to beat the S&P. The goal is to beat, exploit, or take advantage of the market participants who think they can beat the S&P. - You gotta love this game to be great at it. - Analysts have 5 skills they need to hone/develop: recall of past patterns, mental visualization of a business within the feedback loops of its ecosystem, read between the lines, make leaps of judgment, and synthesize. AI tools inhibit or dull all these skills, especially in rookies. - Investing (or trading) is a team sport if you want to do it well. - You make the most money on a stock while the moat is emerging, being built, or widening. Not when it is static. The same with an analyst on your team. While her moat is being built is when she makes you the most money. - There are tools, questions, and processes that can increase your probability of making money while minimizing risk. - The writing process correlates with the investing process. Or another way to put it: great writing correlates/causes/conditions great investing. - You can create culture. You can even fix a culture if you catch the cultural problems early enough. - If you have 12 steps in your investment process, Idea Generation + position sizing are the two steps that are 80% of the value of the 12. - Ideas where you will be able to use most of your portfolio management tools are better than ideas where you can use only a few. - Lessons from your hobbies or passions can be applied to your investing; even better if you infuse your personal style, identity, and experiences into your investing. Mrs Market rewards authenticity. - Competitive advantages in investing or fleeting; you have to constantly find new ones. - The height of behaviorism is using yourself as a contra indicator. - While researching, if you see a company you are studying do something innovative, see if you can do the same innovation in your investing, or for your investment business. - You cannot have great results in investing without leverage or concentration. - Keep a list of ideas you pass on, review this list at certain time intervals. - The best filters for great ideas are smart people. - Liquidity is the most beautiful thing. If you are wrong, she allows you to get out, and you might even have time to go short if you were long or to go long if you were short. If you are right and there is no more bear case, she allows you to buy more. - Investors in your fund are your partners, not your clients. Your clients are actually the people, ideas, and processes that make money and reduce risk for your fund. - There is such a thing as creativity in the investment business. Especially in field research. - The ethos of the hedge fund business has changed. We used to be pirates (just an analogy, kids, not advocating to do anything illegal), and over time, starting in the early aughts, we became the British Navy. Are we in an age where Pirates or the British Navy will thrive? Would argue this is an age of pirates. Remember to protect your ships before they are raided by maraudeurs. Pirates attack at night, while you sleep. Have a profitable coming week. Happy hunting!
@nosunkcosts Could it be lack of quality large cap stocks to attract foreign investors? Glove makers were a great early COVID trade if you timed it right
ATTENTION FINTWIT -- Please RT I created an Emergency Fintwit Spreadsheet on googledocs in comment only mode. You can open this in a private browser and comment on cells in case twitter dies. I will post updates if the community reconstitutes elsewhere. docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
P.S. This site stopped loading, funny. luxcapital.com/companies/ftx/
If you don't publicly flaunt your investments, that's cool. But if you do, seems like now's the time to say something...
Watching famous VCs continue pumping their winners/new investments on twitter while staying silent about their own firm's investments in FTX
Interesting take on FTX
1/ Very rough and speculative sketch of what I increasingly think happened at FTX as more info comes out… The central question is where did the money go? Yes malfeasance and fraud is necessary, but at one point in the cycle cash actually has to go out the door
So basically what I realized was if Zuck was going to have an 11 figure midlife crisis, I wanted to have one as well But by doing it at my family office instead of at Tesla, I didn't wreck the share price (relatively speaking), ruin all my minion disciples & get a margin call
Listening to the same question quarterly, when the answer never changes...capital allocation priorities, long term sustainable ROE, will you reverse provisions?, on and on...
This was good...youtube.com/watch?v=KHEZCX…
"We need @Billbrowder on Invest Like The Best @patrick_oshag" - h/t Private
Deep dive on Coatue: readthegeneralist.com/briefing/coatue
modest proposal @modestproposal1
124K Followers 788 Following I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection. https://t.co/NuC25VaSff
Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker
254K Followers 6K Following Managing Partner & CIO, @atreidesmgmt. Husband, @l3eckyy. No investment advice, views my own. https://t.co/pFe9KmNu9U
Liberty 💚🥃 @LibertyRPF
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Bread Crumbs Research @breadcrumbsre
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InnocenceCapital.AI (... @InnocenceCapit1
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Mike @NonGaap
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Bill Brewster @BillBrewsterTBB
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Mostly Borrowed Ideas @borrowed_ideas
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Upslope Capital @UpslopeCapital
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crossdefault @crossdefault
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Neil Katz, SPHR @nkatz7
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Special Situations Di... @specsitsdigest
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Rob Stephens @robstephens_
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Oguz Erkans @oguzcrkan
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Cantonese Cat_🐱�... @cantonmei0w
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𝕁𝕠𝕤𝕖𝕡�... @jocarlisonshows
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Capvalue89 @CapitalOnValue
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Meme Pump Ninjas @MemeDropScout
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Chris @Chris01257571
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Olive Garden Capital @olivegardencap
39 Followers 937 Following when you're here, you're family. this is a burner, bruh, not investment advice.
M. V. @_mvcinvestin_
231 Followers 5K Following Long-term investor. BSc in Economics, MSc in Finance. Equity Analyst with a focus on Fundamental Analysis and Valuation. Not a financial advisor.
MonkeyCapital @athcapitalmgtm
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JEFE TRADES 🔪 @CarsonGroupLl
189 Followers 7K Following Love God, Love Your Family, Grinding the Markets TakeProfitTrader (Best PROP Firm in the GAME) 40% off Use Code: JEFE
Long Elephant @ApulloSf
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EV_BatteryBets🇺�... @Zrauxaux054
40 Followers 2K Following 15-30% Monthly | 2 High-Conviction Stocks.Short-Term Gains: 15-20% in Days/Weeks.DM "JOIN" for WhatsApp Alerts. Live Trade Signals • Market Analysis
Eagle Spring Forest @EagleSpringFore
0 Followers 8K Following Friends of Eagle Spring Forest. A friends group set up to promote and improve the forest for current and future generations. Website launching late 2026.
Sergey @SergayCYW
134 Followers 4K Following I talk about growth stock investing, fundamental analysis with a long-term mindset. I provide earnings reviews and key news updates. https://t.co/9XoBy43OVg sergeycyw
ConstanceEdward @72l1Ez5S1Lh4YX
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Imran Salahuddin @SalahuddinImran
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Fierce_beast @Fierce__beast
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. @Moon_Market_1
417 Followers 5K Following Moon Market on YouTube 150,000 subs. I buy and sell penny stocks. Trading/Investing is risky. Don't get scammed. Disclaimer: https://t.co/mjWdWRm1MJ
Roberto Zappone @roberto_za28700
482 Followers 4K Following
Kairos @KairosPraxis
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Simeon Research @SimeonResearch_
11K Followers 479 Following Hunting Asymmetrical and Overlooked ideas worldwide | Founder Simeon Capital & Co Founder AAIG | NFA
modest proposal @modestproposal1
124K Followers 788 Following I shall now therefore humbly propose my own thoughts, which I hope will not be liable to the least objection. https://t.co/NuC25VaSff
Jerry Capital @JerryCap
58K Followers 618 Following Not selling anything. Not investment advice. Personal but public journal. Arguing with you to spare my family. DM mutual to unblock. Canadian Propaganda
Gavin Baker @GavinSBaker
254K Followers 6K Following Managing Partner & CIO, @atreidesmgmt. Husband, @l3eckyy. No investment advice, views my own. https://t.co/pFe9KmNu9U
Liberty 💚🥃 @LibertyRPF
31K Followers 1K Following OSV | I write about business & investing 🏦 💰, science & technology 🧪🔬, and the arts 👉 https://t.co/1cGQKu5z98 (free 1x/week, podcast, 29,400+ subscribers)
Bread Crumbs Research @breadcrumbsre
26K Followers 583 Following People-centric investing. Unrecognized/underappreciated excellence. "Trying to spot a great manager remains a game very much worth playing" (Marathon AM)
Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag
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Mike @NonGaap
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Daniel S. Loeb @DanielSLoeb1
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Prepared Remarks @P_Remarks
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Tren Griffin @trengriffin
108K Followers 589 Following I'm a consultant and business owner. I worked at Microsoft for decades and was a partner at Eagle River, a private equity firm. I serve on several boards.
Pythia Cap: Partially... @PythiaR
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Ricky Sandler @rsandler21969
32K Followers 468 Following CEO / CIO of Eminence Capital. Stock and market thoughts likely reflect our book. #Badgers #Mets
Christopher Bloomstra... @ChrisBloomstran
128K Followers 1K Following Nothing here is advice. Drop the phone and slowly back away from the Twitter. Read a 10-K. It’s a profession, not a business.
buyhighsellhigher @ebitdaddy90
31K Followers 38 Following Ex p72/Citadel/GS. Went to a school “in Boston”. Lots of fake copycats of my acct - make sure you follow the real deal.
Bill Brewster @BillBrewsterTBB
52K Followers 2K Following “Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it.” Bueller, Ferris
Made in Japan 🇯�... @InvestInJapan
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Clark Tang @_clarktang
12K Followers 452 Following investing @ altimeter // be humble, never stop learning // no investment advice all views personal
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980 Followers 200 Following Husband, father, investor, State Treasurer of NC
Special Situations Di... @specsitsdigest
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42K Followers 0 Following Accountability. News & Investigations. [email protected] No ads. No paywalls. https://t.co/Lx31NPzaiz Disclosures: https://t.co/Uerwg8tKT7
Ottavi @ottavi_
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Cluseau Investments @blondesnmoney
69K Followers 1K Following Not Financial Advice Insert extremely corny quote here
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Randolph Duke 🇺�... @RandolphDuke7
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Saso Capital @saso_capital
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TheGrkportfolio @grkportfolio
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Quality Equities @qualityequities
10K Followers 1K Following Investing in a concentrated portfolio of the highest quality companies in the world. All opinions my own. Not financial advice.
Benn Eifert 🥷🏴�... @bennpeifert
120K Followers 1K Following Hedge fund manager (volatility/derivatives), QVR. Personal account. Oathbreaker paladin and Nightreign princess bodyguard. Chief Investment Officer of Antifa.
LifeisGood Capital @LIGCapital_
435 Followers 1K Following SP, Brazil. Research Analyst, Partner at Global LO Fund
(((The Daily Shot))) @SoberLook
167K Followers 279 Following The Daily Shot is a graphical, no-hype global financial and economic newsletter (see sample: https://t.co/HjT4hq9I8N).
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AlphaSense @AlphaSenseInc
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Demis Hassabis @demishassabis
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Rob Stephens @robstephens_
884 Followers 6K Following rising tides lift all boats; the stars lift all eyes | endowment LP, former GP. deep tech rube. recovering chinaholic | views mine, activity ≠ endorsement
Chris Murphy @ChrisMurphyHQ
152 Followers 320 Following Hedge Fund Thinking Made Simple Ex–HF SMD (17y; CFA, CPA-inactive) https://t.co/IQDNo8YOvG Educational only, not investment advice
Ray Wang @rwang07
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Joe Lonsdale @JTLonsdale
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Greg Speicher @Greg_Speicher
8K Followers 1K Following Destination Analysis | Private Investor | Inc. 500 Winner | Wharton | Not Investment Advice
Aitor-Sempiterno Inve... @Sempiterno_Inv
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Return on Cap @returnoncap
6K Followers 497 Following Patience, consistency, discipline, rationality. Aggressive Saving. Conservative Investing.































