Frazier @Frazier_Cap
Every business has a price at which you should buy it. For some that price is negative. Joined June 2018-
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@rev_cap What if... returns are capex are not bad (they aren't)
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@TMTLongShort @escvel0city11 Occasionally, not permanently
@rev_cap @citrini @zephyr_z9 Spot ROIC with spot memory and spot rental rates is better than incredibly good though. The problem would be if memory prices stay >=spit level and rental rates drop a lot, which seems somewhat unlikely since demand for the one implies demand for the other
@rev_cap @citrini @zephyr_z9 Seems like this is becoming consensus reasonably fast Could unwind by a lot msft/amzn bwat
@rev_cap If Q2 does not show accel for the clouds, capex will get revised down But IMO Q2 will show further accel (idk about meta)
@viggy_krishnan @P_Remarks If Copilot stops letting me choose and only gives me the auto garbage, my usage is going to drop 99%
@DynamicMoats Double digit seems like a very low bar
@OnodaCapital They say ~50% is long-term contracted by hyperscalers, prob some non-hyperscaler LT contracts on top Would guess that contracted share goes up with the big new deals, but anything new they sign is prob at a different price (incl. LT deals, though lower uplift per hr there)
@zephyr_z9 Is there a chance this is for VR instead of Blackwell?
@OnodaCapital Or they drop Mythos and it 5x again
@JerryCap And this is Azure Foundry is shit and Bedrock is eating their lunch
@pekwat Which 3y period? Because next 3y is going to be $1T
@TotemMacro @atelicinvest MFU != utilization Data centers are ~100% utilized
@TMTLongShort Why would hynix take money from hyperscalers with 0 FCF if they have $150b of their own
@pekwat Moving from pure rental model to also buying chips, i.e. need upfront investment
@JerryCap A CSP bear case from Jerry? Wow, did not think I would see the day.
@viggy_krishnan @kab604 MSD vs (LSD) is worlds apart at this leverage
@pekwat Going to be $500b of NTM revenue by the time they have all IPOed
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