@Rob_Whelan Agreed.
I think it will be choppy and spiky.
Some orgs, some areas, some workflows will get to that point sooner and others will do the usual laggard dance where they are still talking “digital transformation” let alone “AI overhaul”
What we really want is the Culture.
Radical ubermenschian anarchy where our Maslow's hierarchy of needs is taken care of at the highest level and we're free to pursue fulfillment:
Work when we want to, play when we want to, follow our own dreams + drives wherever they lead.
Reminder: ...we don’t want a life filled with rules and structures and globally defined procedural rules. We want to live in a hunter gatherer mode where we get to follow our curiosities and our ambitions and our vibes and our likes until it reaches the natural conclusion.
Not often talked about, are the second and third order impacts of @Tesla's FSD. We think about how many accidents it will prevent, but we don't talk about how the lowering of stress on drivers will impact overall quality of life, which I think will increase substantially.
Kind
Prediction: There's a 65% chance that the strongest model available to you by the end of 2026 will be open source.
There's a 75% probability it'll be Chinese model unless Reflection comes out swinging like Tyson or Meta really goes hard into open source again to round out the percentages.
Oh don't get me wrong. If it goes like this, closed source American labs will still have better models. You just won't be able to use them. You'll read about them on Lab blogs.
Why?
Because they scared the government and regular people so much that they can't release them and so those models will be locked behind closed doors.
The only wild card here that keeps this prediction from being something like 75% is Elon and Grok and his massive reach and single handed power to raise capital, buy businesses and apparently train amazing models. He alone seems able to buck the trend on data center building and has enough power to say, yeah, I am not submitting to the "voluntary" testing regime. But he is likely to get tangled up in whatever non-voluntary one is coming and be a target for it too.
So Elon is our wild card. As usual it seems like the entire American innovation system, from space to data centers to clean electric cars stems from one guy and that's just not a wonderful thing for us. We need a dozen daring doers to ensure the next American century.
All this is incredibly bad for American AI. There is no current business model that does not involve selling lots and lots of tokens to 100Ms of businesses.
The models are not yet strong enough to own to create a British East India style super cyberpunk monopoly of intelligence and do sci-fi things like just out trade everyone on stock market or make and test super cancer stopping drugs or anything else that purely closed AGI would do for a company yet in theory and that would justify keeping the power all to themselves.
The business model is coding and AI first early adopters. The 2% of the diffusion of innovation curve.
Now there's a few ways this could play out.
The best way?
It's a Sputnik moment for America and we ignore the data center doomsday insanity and start building and we beat back the wild maze of regulations.
Unfortunately, the atmosphere around AI in the US is so toxic that I give that maybe a 15% possibility.
What's much more likely, 85%, is that populist left and right groups double down and dig in and make it worse with more regulation and bans and other terrible ideas.
I hope I'm wrong. I'd be very happy to lose this bet.
Ox Alpha (stealth model) is free for the next week
- 1M Context
- Multi-modal
- Zero Data Retention
Generous rate limits, near unlimited usage
We have capacity for 100T tokens per day, lets see what you can do
from the union workers:
the American dream requires growth and production, not just redistribution
AI and energy are the economy’s productivity and growth engine. to be anti-datacenter is to be anti-labor
@garrytan@PeterDiamandis You had Alvin Graylin on Moonshots. It was a great discourse, even though Alvin seemed to only have negative viewpoint of massive DS build-outs.
If there is a follow-up episode, it would be worth asking about this reporting.
There should just be some local direct to resident dividends for data centers from their revenue.
Literally just give people free stuff. Give them some equity too.
Capitalism has all sorts of wonderful incentive mechanisms. Let's use them.
@beffjezos Agreed. 💯
AI industry has to provide value to the communities, show benefits to the public.
Just words can't compete with a well-oiled campaign.
@theojaffee Agreed.
What is the counter-plan? AI industry has to provide value to the communities, show benefits to the public.
Just words can't compete with a well-oiled campaign.
Agreed.
What is the counter-plan? AI industry has to provide value to the communities, show benefits to the public.
Just words can't compete with a well-oiled campaign.
The anti-datacenter psychosis sweeping through both sides of our national politics might be the worst mass movement I've seen in my lifetime. The magnitude of lies underpinning it, the threat it poses to our economy and civilization, and the sheer scale of its popularity are
Grok Bot is just cool. 😎
Of course an agent should be persistent.
Of course it should have its own computer.
All that remains is for it to be embodied…
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