I'm only going to say this once.
If you're under 40, this dip is a generational opportunity to buy great companies at a discount.
$NVDA - $194 now. $250 stock. Data center revenue up 92% to $75B last quarter.
$HOOD - $91 now. $150 stock. $307B in platform assets. Built its own blockchain.
$MRVL - $171 now. $225 stock. Custom AI silicon went zero to $1.5B in one year.
$NBIS - $162 now. $200 stock. Revenue up 684%. Backlog over $50B.
$ONDS - $7 now. $10 stock. $70M in new defense orders in four weeks.
$AMZN - $234 now. $300 stock. AWS reaccelerated to 28%. Ads past $70B.
$SOFI - $15 now. $25 stock. 14.7M members, up 35%. CEO keeps buying shares.
$SPCX - $116 now. $150 stock. Starlink, reusable rockets, and Starship.
$ZETA - $22 now. $30 stock. 19 straight beat-and-raise quarters.
$NOK - $9 now. $15 stock. NVIDIA invested $1B. AI and cloud sales up 49%.
Ten years from now nobody will remember what these traded at this week.
The people who built real wealth didn't do it buying all-time highs.
Your job as a trader is to make 1-2 really good decisions a month…everything else is a rounding error.
Only takes a couple great months to completely change your life.
It's ok to evolve. I'm not the same investor as I was a few years ago.
Some major things I've changed:
- mostly options -> mostly shares
- adding cheap names -> joining leaders
- 30+ names at once -> 5-10 high conviction
- one-dimensional thesis -> multifaceted, deeper
- focus on managing losers -> focus on supporting winners
I took time to study the real gangsters...most of their strategies revolved around:
- longer timeframes
- bigger size
- less activity
- more conviction
So I adjusted years ago, and it worked. Evolve.
Tough part about trading is that 90% of all the research, preparation, planning, and execution is worthless.
The trades become scratches. Don't move the needle. You make/lose a little money. Basically wasted time.
But you HAVE to do the work on every single idea bc you never know when an outlier is about to emerge.
How to know an outlier is emerging?
- multiple bullish angles aligning
- favorable market environment
- powerful catalyst
- narrative gaining traction
- relative strength
Majority of trades don't matter. Don't let them consume you.
But there will be a handful of times each year when the stars align and you need to be locked in + ready to rock & roll.
Bull markets typically end with good news.
Bear markets typically end with bad news.
Simply observing that there's some notable good news potentially coming down the pipe, worth watching in next couple weeks:
- us/iran de-escalation
- spacex ipo prospectus
- hormuz reopening
VIX spikes over 30 are the lifeblood of any put-gobbling, gambling-addicted adrenaline junkie like yourself.
Your devotion to deep out of the money 0DTE bets depend on them.
But how often do they actually happen?
Here's how many times each year, since 2000, we saw a VIX spike over 30 (where VIX got back at least under 20 in between).
I'm sure that big win of yours is just around the corner.
I'm asking you to get comfortable buying higher in a raging bull market.
- less waiting, winners can work immediately
- aligning with + joining trend
- easy to clearly define risk
Bottom ticking sounds cool on X, but the real $$$ is made pressing winners when market is HOT.
How I rank signals for swing trading:
(+ breakdowns of each, worth bookmarking)
1) story/narrative
2) catalyst with known timetable
3) theme
4) indisputable/well-defined risk level
5) environment
6) relative strength
7) potential of asymmetric returns
8) chart structure
9) unusual volume/flow
10) ceo's "it factor"
11) fundamentals
12) insider buying
13) lack of social noise
This is how I personally rank things when preparing for a swing trade. You?
(more context below, for your reading pleasure)
1) Story / Narrative:
- why people should care right now
- not just “what the company does", but why it suddenly matters again
- feels obvious, like a no-brainer
- example: elon musk re-inventing space + rockets
2) Catalyst with known timetable:
- scheduled moment where attention has to converge
- earnings, ipos, fda stuff, guidance, lockups, product launches
- the key is not necessarily the catalyst itself, it’s the attention compression into a specific date
- anticipation is the fuel
- example: the actual spacex ipo timetable
3) Theme:
- the bigger umbrella trade everything is rotating into
- ai, energy, oil, drones, silver, crypto, whatever
- individual names don’t matter much if the theme is dead
4) Indisputable / well-defined risk level:
- where you are wrong is obvious and clean
- no gray area, no "it could come back"
- if you can’t define this quickly/specifically, dont trade
5) Environment:
- risk on vs risk off
- choppy or trending
- macro stability
- overall indices behavior
- vix, oil, rates...other data
- same chart does wildly differently things in different conditions
6) Relative strength:
- leading theme/stock
- strong stocks get stronger
7) Potential of asymmetric returns:
- upside is meaningfully larger than downside
- re-pricing potential
- multiples expansion candidate
8) Chart structure:
- basing, breakout holding, higher lows
- clean structure = easier participation for me
9) Unusual volume / flow:
- anything out of the ordinary
- higher RVOL on no news
- volume expansion
- unusual options activity
10) CEO’s “it factor”:
- swagger + magnetism (really matters)
- people really believe the person
- credibility, vision, experience
- winner
11) Fundamentals:
- real underlying solid business metrics
- growing revenue, margins, demand, unit economics
- not the trigger, but can be justification layer
12) Insider buying:
- insiders putting real money down
- not vanity transactions, actual meaningful size
- often shows conviction early
- slow but high-quality signal
13) Lack of social noise:
- early phase signal
- no crowded narrative yet, no hype cycle, no spam
- once it becomes everywhere, edge = fading
- best trades often start where nobody is talking yet
Bookmark + review these, hope this helps♥️.
What would you change, if any..and why? Curious.
Luc
32 Followers 552 FollowingPosts are opinions, not financial advice. I may trade in and out at anytime without notice. Don't trade based on anything I post. Do your research Or send dm 📥
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