Travis Prentice @Informed_Mo

K-beauty brands may come and go. The companies making, scaling, and packaging them can keep winning either way. Investors are noticing. Guinness Atkinson has filed for what would be the first dedicated Korean beauty ETF on the NYSE, spanning not just brand owners, but contract manufacturers and suppliers, distributors and retailers, and aesthetic and dermatological companies. The investment opportunity goes well beyond the brands themselves. More here👉informedmomentum.com/rising-tides-t…

“It’s not you, it’s your fundamentals.” The relationship between price momentum and business momentum is complicated, but worth understanding. Price momentum tells us what a stock is doing. Business momentum can help explain what is changing within the company. In our latest paper, we examine whether improvements in company fundamentals - measured through earnings acceleration, earnings surprises, and analyst estimate revisions - predict future equity returns and provide information beyond traditional price momentum. The findings suggest that business momentum and price momentum are related, but not interchangeable. Each can contain information the other does not. And combining them can provide a more complete view of momentum and help build stronger, more adaptable portfolios. Full paper here: informedmomentum.com/its-not-you-it…

July delivered momentum’s sharpest one-month pullback on record, compressing a historically severe degree of relative underperformance into a matter of weeks. The reversal followed a period of considerable strength. In magnitude, July’s decline was comparable to the average underperformance experienced across momentum’s worst (bottom-decile) rolling 12-month periods. The speed of the reversal was extraordinary. But history suggests that periods of extreme momentum weakness have often been followed by strong relative returns. Following those weak one-year periods, momentum outperformed over the subsequent year in 78% of observations and over the subsequent three years in 93%. Average excess returns were approximately 6 and 25 percentage points, respectively. While no historical pattern is assured to repeat, these results help put July’s abrupt reversal - and its potential long-term implications - into perspective. informedmomentum.com/worst-month-fo…

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IMAX reported a record-breaking opening weekend for Christopher Nolan's The Odyssey, capturing roughly 20% of the film's global opening weekend box office despite representing only a small fraction of total screens. As consumers increasingly seek immersive movie experiences, exhibitors and premium format leaders like $IMAX and $MCS are benefiting from higher ticket prices, more strategic theatrical windows, expanding margins, and the enduring appeal of the big-screen experience. 🍿Full Rising Tide here: informedmomentum.com/rising-tides-p…

"Momentum tends to be stairsteps up and an elevator down." So far in July, we're on the elevator. But history suggests these sharp reversals are typically short-lived and have frequently marked attractive entry points for long-term investors. Yesterday I joined Charles Payne on @FoxBusiness to discuss the status of July's momentum unwind, whether the narrative is changing for AI stocks, and where we're finding new opportunities beyond AI. Link to the full conversation: foxbusiness.com/video/64016701…

If July were to end here, this would rank as momentum's worst month since the sharp reversals of 2009 and 2000. Where do we go from here? History provides a useful framework for thinking about what has typically followed. Looking at US equities back to 1986 where momentum underperformed by more than 5 percentage points, in the subsequent 1-year periods, momentum outperformed 77% of the time and by an average of more than 4 percentage points. Over the subsequent 3-year periods, momentum outperformed 85% of the time, averaging roughly 30 percentage points of cumulative excess return. While every market cycle is different, these sharp reversals have often marked periods of opportunity. informedmomentum.com/julys-momentum…

Humility can be a powerful investment advantage. Many investment mistakes stem from the belief that success belongs to those who can see further, analyze deeper, and forecast more accurately than the crowd. Momentum investors take a different approach. We don't try to predict the future. We don't attempt to call tops or bottoms. We don't claim to know what's next. Instead, we follow the evidence, adapt as conditions change, and let the market guide us. When the future is unknowable, discipline beats prediction. More on what I know, and do not know, here 👉informedmomentum.com/the-useful-idi…

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Trucking stocks have been catching a bid. Fewer trucks, firmer pricing, and growing demand tied to infrastructure spending have created a strong backdrop for freight. One thing worth watching: Amazon's ($AMZN) expanding freight business. As Amazon evolves from a major customer into a larger transportation provider, the question becomes: will it be a meaningful disruptor or simply another participant in an increasingly healthy market?

Why does one of investing's most persistent truths remain so controversial? Across decades of academic research, market cycles, geographies, and asset classes, momentum remains among the most persistent and empirically validated investment factors ever observed. Yet despite the evidence, it is still frequently viewed with skepticism and discomfort within institutional investment circles. My thoughts on momentum being one of the great ironies in modern finance: 👉informedmomentum.com/the-most-hated…

Hotel stocks aren't acting like the economy is slowing. The story isn't broad consumer strength. It's a resilient affluent traveler, recovering corporate demand, and one of the tightest hotel supply environments in more than a decade. That combination is creating meaningful pricing power across the industry. See who is benefitting 👉informedmomentum.com/rising-tides-f…

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Momentum doesn't become dangerous simply because it's working. The bigger risk comes when investors assume today's leaders will remain tomorrow's leaders. I recently spoke with @MarketWatch about the historic run in momentum stocks, what's driving it, and where investors should be paying attention as market leadership evolves. As trends accelerate, it's increasingly important to distinguish between fundamental business momentum and crowded trades - and to have a process that can adapt when conditions change. marketwatch.com/story/wall-str…

Can you actually build that? The next AI bottlenecks are emerging far below the application layer — inside the manufacturing stack required to produce increasingly complex semiconductors. As AI capex accelerates, demand is cascading downstream into advanced packaging, EUV lithography materials, process chemicals, specialty substrates, and precision assembly equipment. These are deeply process-qualified technologies with high switching costs, concentrated supplier bases, and growing strategic importance to the entire AI infrastructure buildout. The market is starting to recognize that scaling AI is no longer just about designing faster chips. It’s about whether the industry can physically manufacture them at scale. See where the next supply chain constraints are building 👉informedmomentum.com/rising-tides-c…

Fighting AI with AI? informedmomentum.com/rising-tides-a…

Appreciate the opportunity to join Charles Payne on Fox Business Network “Making Money” to discuss some of the emerging themes developing across the AI ecosystem. As AI capex cascades downstream, we’re seeing new bottlenecks and beneficiaries emerge - from specialty chemicals and materials enabling advanced semiconductor and memory packaging, to edge compute and security companies benefiting from rising AI agent traffic. At the same time, the growth of agentic and voice AI is increasing the importance of communications and API providers embedded in customer interaction workflows. One of the most important aspects of this market environment is tying leadership back to improving fundamentals and understanding the rationale behind what’s working.

We look at what’s happening in the market and then seek to understand why. That ordering matters. Many investors begin with the explanation and then look for prices to confirm it. Informed Momentum starts with market behavior and then tries to understand the message. Thank you to @practicalquant for doing an excellent job capturing the philosophy behind our process and why adaptability is so crucial in today’s markets. Click below for a great recap of our conversation on the Excess Returns podcast. excessreturnspod.substack.com/p/price-is-tru…

Call a customer service line today, and it’s increasingly unclear whether you’re speaking to a human or AI. Behind every AI-driven conversation sits infrastructure that is difficult to replicate. AI can generate the agent, but not the telecom networks, carrier relationships, phone-number inventory, compliance, or deliverability required to reach customers reliably. That's where communication platforms sit. And the companies that own the flow of AI communication are seeing real momentum. More here 👉informedmomentum.com/rising-tides-w…

Turnover is often thought of as something to minimize in the name of discipline or efficiency. But what if that framing is wrong? In markets that evolve as quickly as today’s, low turnover can just as easily signal rigidity as it does conviction. Turnover isn’t simply a cost to control - it’s how portfolios adapt. How weakening trends are exited. How capital is reallocated toward emerging leaders. In other words, it’s how investors stay aligned with what’s working now, not what worked before. A portfolio that rarely changes assumes a level of permanence that markets rarely grant. One that evolves acknowledges reality. In environments defined by change, the ability to respond deliberately and systematically is essential. More on this here 👉informedmomentum.com/turnover-isnt-…