Trump Llama 🦙🦙🦙🦙🦙🦙🦙 @JagerMario

@SantiagoAuFund

@acrossthespread If the EU was smart they would kiss some 🍑 and see if they can find some kind of new facility for their garbage PIGS Bonds 🤷‍♂️ #VoodooMagicFuckery

This one's for all the llamas all over the world. Likes/shares appreciated, watch on 2x speed if you must, but you can't afford to miss this one. It's time to Curve it. Enjoy. $CRV 🤝 $CVX

@leadlagreport Is there anything you will accept to maybe change your mind? What if the US twist reaches over $1T?

@leadlagreport “Paper” losses Does Japan not have Repos and HTM? Are they allowed to sell anyway?

When I started this series, I wanted to understand why @CurveFinance had such a strong position in DeFi and what actually sits behind the protocol. I knew Curve before starting this research. I knew about StableSwap, $CRV, veCRV, Convex and some of the bigger ideas around the ecosystem. But I wanted to understand how all of these pieces actually fit together. So I started with StableSwap. Then I went deeper into the invariant, gauges, veCRV and eventually the Curve Wars. From there, @ConvexFinance, @fraxfinance and the entire incentive layer around Curve governance opened up another level of complexity. And eventually, I reached $crvUSD. That was probably the point where the whole thing became much more interesting for me. I started looking at Curve from a completely different perspective. LLAMMA showed me how Curve approaches collateral risk and soft liquidation. PegKeepers showed me how the protocol can influence liquidity conditions around the peg. Monetary Policy added another layer around borrowing behaviour, interest rates and supply dynamics. And @yieldbasis gave me another perspective on how applications built around crvUSD can create additional demand and contribute to supply expansion. What I personally found interesting throughout the research was how much economic thinking sits behind the mechanisms. A lot of the things Curve built are ultimately about influencing behaviour. Where does liquidity go? Why would someone provide it? Why would someone borrow? What makes a borrower keep their position open? What makes a protocol want deeper liquidity? What makes governance power valuable? Those questions kept appearing in different forms throughout the entire ecosystem. And that is what made the research so enjoyable for me. Every time I thought I understood one part, there was another layer behind it that connected back to something I had already covered. The Curve Wars made more sense once I understood gauges. Gauges made more sense once I understood veCRV. crvUSD made more sense once I understood how Curve thinks about liquidity and incentives. And LLAMMA, PegKeepers and Monetary Policy made much more sense when looking at crvUSD as an economic system rather than simply a stablecoin. That was probably my biggest takeaway from writing this series. Curve has a very strong focus on market design. The interesting part for me is seeing how the protocol keeps applying that thinking to completely different problems. Stable asset trading. Liquidity allocation. Governance. Incentives. Lending. Collateral management. Stablecoin supply. These are very different problems, but Curve keeps approaching them through mechanisms that let market participants respond to incentives. That is also why I think the ecosystem around Curve is so interesting to follow. Convex, Yield Basis and other protocols can build around the infrastructure and create their own economic activity on top of it. And that gives Curve another dimension. The protocol can become more useful as the surrounding ecosystem becomes more active. There is still a lot of room for new integrations, new liquidity, new strategies and new use cases to develop across the Curve ecosystem. And that is probably what I am most curious to watch from here. Especially with crvUSD continuing to develop and more applications finding ways to use it. For me, this series also changed how I look at $CRV. I started the research wanting to understand the protocol better. I ended up understanding much more about the economics behind the token, the governance system, the incentives and the markets built around them. And I definitely still have a lot more to learn. That is probably the best part. After 16 posts, I feel like I finally have a much clearer mental model of Curve. There are still plenty of rabbit holes I could go down. And knowing me, I probably will. This series took a lot more time than I expected. But I genuinely enjoyed researching every part of it. 16 posts, a lot of research,help from my bro @Smallro_man and hours spent going down Curve rabbit holes. And honestly, I’m glad I did.

@SantiagoAuFund @jameslavish I would note that the only treasury action So FAR; has been to sell $EUR not $USD… If loosing influence on the Global stage means more offshore $RMB loans at ~3%… Perhaps another Carry trade is born? 🤷‍♂️ Either way; all roads lead to a smiling Scotty B 🫡

@JeffSnider_EDU It absolutely can Ser; depending on the amount of free $ they give to their commercial banks through Repo Games If a country can have $40T deficit; why not a Central Bank as well? 🤷‍♂️ #VoodooMagicFuckery

@onechancefreedm Borrowing $RMB at ~3% seems a likely candidate for a Carry Trade 🫡 Either way; All roads lead to a Smiling Scotty B

@exfactorbass @LukeGromen Well then it seems more an asset not a Reserve? I am not against Gold as the reserve, but I’ve yet to hear the concrete plan of what that means and how does it work with banking.

@TXMCtrades @LukeGromen Im not saying should or shouldn’t I’m trying to understand thesis and mechanics. So Fiat remains and Fractional Reserve lending against it continues. But only 100% collateral loans against Gold?

One week Later; Scott Bessent is Yentervention Champion 🫡 (Still Under 160)

an onchain llamas plans are measured in centuries millama

First Ser Ty for your reply, not many are open to discussion. I appreciate it and enjoy your posts. 🍻 1) based on this answer: “You are arguing against a claim I never made.” Do we agree that Japan selling $USTs has not and will not work? 2) it absolutely does not strengthen the point, because if it has NEVER worked yet, and now the US is involved it seems that Japan realizes and is open to new ideas? 3) The Treasury is ramping up buybacks, these clips can be easily absorbed and if the panic reaction on rates is ever Big Big; Treasury can boast how buying the long end on such high rates is a great move to lower the deficit. 4) Let’s leave 2020 as the year of 🪲 and look at the more relevant 2024 “Reverse Carry Trade” What happened was a 14% reverse in Yen. It went from 161 to 142 in 3 weeks. Meanwhile the S&P was flat in a week and rebounded to a + 43% ATH DXY never slipped below 100. So was it a “Reverse Carry Trade” or an Algo trade over reaction with not enough gas? 🤔 5) Treasury CAN offset because Japan can only sell $1.2T; the US Long End is $5.5T do you agree that there is room for a twist? 6) I do not dispute the old “mechanics” My Thesis is that they no longer have any effect 7) #VoodooMagicFuckery

@PauloMacro Fima and Repo rates are a gift. The bond collateral is valued at face….

@noahseidman The powers that be want the Yen to find its comfortable range. If the price stays under 160 overnight, Scotty B just might be the Yentervention Champion

@0xSchnitzel @SantiagoAuFund Not saying it would. (Again, not my thesis) I am just trying to explain why a non reserve currency doesn’t have the print power to fight the gravity of being 250% Debt to GDP

FinX is quite enamored with this historical narrative. Every account that talks about it is saying pretty much the same thing … But they are ALL WRONG There is NO UNWIND Even though I believe they are wrong @leadlagreport deserves the credit for being the first to verbalize the underlying theory and to shout it loud, and in fairness the initial theory was solid until recently proven wrong. And H/T to @peruvian_bull for being amongst the first (after me) to Shout that Yentervention DOESNT Work. The reason it doesn’t work is that Japan owns 3% of ALL USTs. 3% of all of them! That is $1.2T Now divide $1.2T by many attempts and you get an average of $50B - $100B per FAILED intervention. And here is the most import CONTEXT that no one is talking about THE US has ALREADY DONE $200B of Treasury buybacks this year. They are ready and waiting. As soon as the Over reactionary Algo Traders TEMPORARILY drive up the Yen and TEMPORARILY drive up US Rates; The Treasury will calmly step in and buy the Long End (Twist) and hail what an amazing win it is as a Reduction on the Deficit. Another reason everyone gets this wrong is that they don’t understand that Japan is in this situation because they are 250 Debt to GDP. They sell JGBs to print Yen to pay their Bills. Reverse Carry Doomers are screaming that higher JGB radiates mean stronger Yen mean Reverse Carry Unwind… WRONG! They are overlooking the fact that 92% of ALL JGBs are owned by Japan that means if Rates go up and you are 250 Debt to GDP guess what you have to issue more JGBs to Print more YEN to PAY THE HIGHER rates!! Lastly the US is not helping the Yentervention out of Panic; they are helping to save a geo political ally by offering it free $. By Free $ it is the ability to “borrow” $USD by posting $USTs at FACE VALUE #VoodooMagicFuckery

Financelot @FinanceLancelot

4 days ago

Scott Bessent was asked some hard questions by Japanese 🇯🇵 reporters yesterday about the sudden urgency of U.S. intervention in the yen. This interview went totally under the radar. To understand why people are concerned about this, the last time the U.S. intervened in the

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