Jesse Marks جيسي ماركس 马辙新 @JesCMarks
#Technology #MENA #China | fmr @stimson @DoD | RT≠endorse Washington / Amman Joined October 2013-
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@AnthropicAI I was using #Fable to brainstorm and red-team AI safety scenarios around extreme overconcentration of power, and it kept bumping me to Opus 4.8. Why do your red lines prevent AI safety research around potential breakout scenarios?
Saudi Arabia is eyeing the growth of a sovereign compute exchange model that, like OPEC for crude, would let it shape and stabilize long-term compute costs. @JesCMarks agsi.org/analysis/the-l…
I wrote for the latest @APSAMENA newsletter on path dependence and Gulf-state AI strategies - read on for how the Gulf monarchies map on to this chart (or did as of February):
“Jordan’s path to becoming a regional connectivity hub begins in Riyadh,” writes @JesCMarks. The Saudi capital is “the necessary first mover that can unlock Jordan’s potential as a node for a new corridor.” atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasour…
One of the most unique chain of thinkers on Syria to read. @dkhalifa, thanks for sharing.
Sullivan’s inability to respond to such basic nonsense about US policy is painful to watch. John Stewart did not 'correct him'; he told a silly story about being in a hotel in Jordan with Emiratis and Americans allegedly “funding Nusra.” Stewart may not know the difference
"U.S.–China Aligned on Ends, Divided on Means in the Iran War" In his new article, @JesCMarks examines the #US-#China posture toward #Iran amid the war. Full analysis: gulfif.org/u-s-china-alig…
The incongruence of Trump policies on Iran are astounding and baffling.
I’m back online after a long hiatus and working on normal Middle East topics but also China, AI, tech competition, and geopolitics! Make sure to follow along here: jessemarks.substack.com
Some #Chinese commentators argue that Iran’s attacks on #GCC #AI infrastructure creates commercial opporunity for Chinese hyperscalrs. I discuss this & more in my recent piece with Coffee in the Desert open.substack.com/pub/jessemarks…
🇨🇳🇻🇪🇺🇸 How is China reacting to Venezuela? @MyersMargaret (@SAISHopkins) and @zhaot2005 (@CarnegieEndow) join @JesCMarks (Rihla Research & Advisory LLC) to discuss how recent U.S. military actions in Venezuela are shifting the strategic landscape between Washington and Beijing. ▶️ Watch: ncuscr.org/video/chinas-r…
This will be interesting to see if it comes together.
Exclusive: America's Proposal for an Israel-Syria Economic Peace A new plan for economic cooperation is being discussed with Syria. What does it involve? It appears to be a sprawling joint economic zone along the current demilitarized strip—complete with energy projects,
Exclusive: America's Proposal for an Israel-Syria Economic Peace A new plan for economic cooperation is being discussed with Syria. What does it involve? It appears to be a sprawling joint economic zone along the current demilitarized strip—complete with energy projects, pharmaceutical plants, and, most Trumpian of all, a ski resort. Let’s just say this comes as a surprise. One would think that after Israel conducted thousands of strikes, and currently sitting on Syrian territory, security would remain the only topic worth negotiating. But it seems the Trump administration and the Syrian government are after something more intimate. According to the American-Syrian proposal, the zone would host a wind power plant, a crude oil pipeline, data centers, and pharmaceutical facilities—and best of all, the area would remain demilitarized. The plan offers quite a bit for Syria: roughly $4 billion in GDP growth—a 20 percent increase on its current output—along with an 800-megawatt boost in power capacity, 15,000 new jobs, and a 40 percent reduction in pharmaceutical dependency. Israel, for its part, gains the chance to transform an arid buffer zone into a “dynamic economic corridor,” while enjoying “reduced military spending” to protect its northern border. Lets just say the imbalance isn’t unusual for Israel’s peace arrangements. Back in 1979, Egypt regained the entire Sinai Peninsula, billions in U.S. aid, and a guarantee that Israel would stop embarrassing it militarily—in exchange for tolerance of its existence. But what would this new zone actually look like? Apparently, something akin to the ski region of Zermatt, Switzerland on the Italian border. Not a one-to-one comparison—Israel and Syria are hardly European in structure or sentiment—but the model gives an idea: independent tax rules, relaxed visa requirements, arbitration mechanisms for financial disputes, maybe even a shared currency framework. Here a question arises: will this whole deal really go through without Syria joining a certain Abrahamic accords? Unfortunately, yes. From what I’ve seen, none of the draft documents make peace a formal condition of the plan. It may make peace more likely, but by no means guaranteed. Now, peace in the Middle East aside—it’s a good deal. Economic prosperity is always welcome, and a demilitarized zone with fewer barbed wires and more ski lifts sounds, frankly, delightful. After all, when Israel first expanded its presence into the DMZ following the Assad regime’s collapse, plenty of Israelis joked—half seriously—about the new skiing opportunities. Still, it needs to be said: however tempting this vision is, Israel should be very careful before it starts trading soldiers for skis.
"Parallel, Not Replacement: Why China Can’t Supplant U.S. Security in the Gulf" In their new article, @JesCMarks and Chenjie Song explore the future of security relations in the #Gulf and what it means for #US and #China engagement in the region. Read the full article here: gulfif.org/parallel-not-r…
It was my honor to meet with 🇸🇾President Ahmed al-Sharaa as part of a bipartisan delegation with @USAMBTurkiye and Ranking Member Shaheen of @SFRCdems to discuss a bright, unified, and stable future for Syria. This trip was particularly meaningful for me, and I am grateful for the warm reception. The time for FULL Caesar repeal is NOW. As a priority of President Trump’s administration, I remain committed to this critical and bipartisan goal. #MakeSyriaGreatAgain
"#China appears to be applying what Foreign Minister Wang Yi has described as the “two-meter alley” approach—maintaining respectful distance while protecting one’s own interests," writes @JesCMarks mecouncil.org/blog_posts/ass…
'China is moving quickly to shore up its long-term energy ties with Gulf Cooperation Council states through fixed purchasing agreements with Gulf suppliers,' writes @JesCMarks. aspistrategist.org.au/facing-volatil…
While maintaining diplomatic ties with #Damascus, #Beijing is keeping the new government at arm’s length, conditioning deeper ties and support for UN sanctions relief on the removal of foreign fighters from Syria. @JesCMarks writes on #Afkar 🔗 mecouncil.org/blog_posts/ass…
Finally reemerging from a break from X and excited to begin talking all things #China, #MiddleEast, and everything in between! Most recent discussion piece: jessemarks.substack.com/p/understandin…
In 7 months, #Israel has done the following in #Syria: - 987 air & artillery strikes - 421 ground incursions - Occupied ~180sqkm of land In response, #Syria's govt has done: - 0 attacks - Filed x2 UNSC complaints - Seized 49 #Hezbollah weapons shipments headed to #Lebanon
Monica Marks @MonicaLMarks
42K Followers 5K Following Prof of Middle East Politics @NYUAbuDhabi. Tunisia, Turkey, Gulf. PhD @StAntsCollege Oxford. Fulbright, Rhodes, @HarvardWCFIA. Words in NYT, WaPo, TIME & more.
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Rena Netjes renanetje... @RenaNetjes
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alexander ryan (Strai... @alex_ryan688
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Muntadher Al-Attiyah ... @Montazer1920
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Riyadh | China @RiyadhPRC
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بندر الغامد... @AlghamdibandarA
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Gokul Sahni @Gokul_Sahni
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Jodie Wen文晶 @JingWenOxford
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Morpheus @morpheus_ai_
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Remi @RemiBest123
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Tong ZHAO @zhaot2005
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Alexander McKeever @AKMcKeever
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Ofir Winter אופי�... @ofirwinter
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Amar Mustafa | اما... @_Amarmustafa
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Adrienne Fricke @AdrienneFricke
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Theo Nencini @ThNencini
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Hussam Hammoud | حس... @HussamHamoud
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Tarek Megrisi @Tmegrisi
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Obaida Dami Palestini... @TflMn35012
613 Followers 3K Following 16 year old from Gaza | Family of 8 living in a makeshift tent with no protection from cold or rain | Children deprived of school | Baby with chest problems in
Karl Sharro @KarlreMarks
185K Followers 1K Following Architect, satirist and extremely bad cartoonist. Director of the Institute of Internet Diagrams. Warning: may contain dad jokes. #YNWA
Monica Marks @MonicaLMarks
42K Followers 5K Following Prof of Middle East Politics @NYUAbuDhabi. Tunisia, Turkey, Gulf. PhD @StAntsCollege Oxford. Fulbright, Rhodes, @HarvardWCFIA. Words in NYT, WaPo, TIME & more.
Barbara Slavin @barbaraslavin1
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Giorgio Cafiero @GiorgioCafiero
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Oz Katerji @OzKaterji
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عبدالله بن �... @KingAbdullahII
2.5M Followers 2 Following عبدالله بن الحسين، ملك المملكة الأردنية الهاشمية Abdullah bin Al Hussein, King of Jordan
Joyce Karam @Joyce_Karam
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Matt Duss @mattduss
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ᴅʀ. ʜ.ᴀ. ʜᴇ�... @hahellyer
44K Followers 7K Following 🇬🇧 ✍ ‣ Geopolitics & Security ‣ Middle East & Europe ‣ @RUSI_org & @AmProg Senior Fellow ‣ formerly @BrookingsInst @CarnegieEndow ‣ @RoyalHistSoc Fellow
Fared Al Mahlool | ف... @FARED_ALHOR
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Mai El-Sadany @maitelsadany
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Jacopo Scita @jacoposcita
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Amro Ali @_amroali
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Taylor Luck يوسف ... @Taylor_Luck
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Andrea Ghiselli @AGhiselliChina
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Karim Emile Bitar @karimbitar
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Mushtaq Bilal, PhD @MushtaqBilalPhD
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Bonnie Glaser / 葛�... @BonnieGlaser
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عبدالله الغ... @ghathami
506K Followers 2K Following سموا أنفسكم مستقلين ، كونوا دعاة سلام ومحبة، قولوا بحرية التفكير والتعبير لمخالفيكم قبل أنفسكم / قل رأيك ( ولا تبالي ) شرط أن تقول هو رأيي أعرضه ولا أفرضه
Kevin S. Xu @kevinsxu
17K Followers 3K Following Investing @ Interconnected Capital; Writing @interconnect_ed; ex. GitHub, Obama White House/Commerce Dept; no one's quant
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Christian Buck @AmbassadorBuck
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Colm Flynn @colmflynnire
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George Richardson @ga_richardson
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Abdullah Thawaba @DrThawaba
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Nedal Al-Amari 🇸�... @nedalalamari
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Ginger Jacobs @gingermjacobs
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End Sanctions on Syri... @end_syria_sxns
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Sameer Saboungi | س�... @sameersaboungi
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HNG ن @HenriGrossman
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Dan Shapiro @DanielBShapiro
54K Followers 2K Following Former US Ambassador to Israel, Defense Dept., State Dept., NSC. @AtlanticCouncil. Working toward a secure, integrated, peaceful Middle East. Devoted Cubs fan.
Tsedenya @TsedenyaGirmay
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Ken Dilanian @KDilanianMSNOW
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حسين الشيخ H... @HusseinSheikhpl
55K Followers 335 Following Vice President of the State of Palestine & Vice Chairman of the Executive Committee of the PLO. نائب رئيس دولة فلسطين ونائب رئيس اللجنة التنفيذية م.ت.ف
Tommy Vietor @TVietor08
540K Followers 3K Following Former Obama NSC staff, cohost Pod Save America, Pod Save the World @crookedmedia
Ambassador Mike Waltz @USAmbUN
432K Followers 229 Following Official account of Ambassador Mike Waltz, U.S. Representative to the United Nations. Full terms of use: https://t.co/lL94MfhQ2V
Ahmet Faruk Işık �... @isikahmetfaruk
2K Followers 1K Following PhD | Researcher at @ChinaMedit | China Affairs Consultant at DTIK @DTIKiletisim Foreign Economic Relations Board of Türkiye @deikiletisim
Prashant Rao @prashantrao
24K Followers 868 Following @Semafor Global Managing Editor | Sign up: https://t.co/7kDY5ygPqe | Ex @TheAtlantic, @nytimes London, @AFP Iraq | DM for Signal/WhatsApp
Ron Kampeas @kampeas
18K Followers 3K Following Ron Kampeas is retired - but he has a substack with commentary on Jews, Israel, everything. https://t.co/qXHHMZJFst Tips: [email protected]
Samir @obretix
68K Followers 79 Following I like brave people who are able to think for themselves. geospatial IT – OSINT/IMINT
Jomana Qaddour @jomanaq1020
812 Followers 798 Following Senior Syria Advisor @StateDept; S.J.D. @GeorgetownLaw opinions mine
Julie A. Gregory @JulieAGregory1
220 Followers 531 Following Research Analyst @StimsonCenter | #ProtectionofCivilians #Peacekeeping #Mediation | @sciencespo and @Unibocconi master's graduate | views are my own.
Clarissa Ward @clarissaward
485K Followers 2K Following CNN Chief International Correspondent- all views are my own.
Simona 🍉 #Humanity... @simonajeger
4K Followers 3K Following Either we all live in a decent world, or nobody does. - George Orwell
Mourad TEYEB (مــ�... @MouradTeyeb
6K Followers 7K Following Journalist - TV Producer - Consultant In #Tunisia.
Sarah Hunaidi @SaraHunaidi
12K Followers 2K Following Exiled Syrian Writer, Human Rights Advocate, Feminist, Translator, Person | 🎓 @Harvard |✍🏼: @NYTimes @ForeignPolicy @Independent +|. She/Her/Hers 🌈You might like
